Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:11PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 12:31 AM AKDT (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 345 Pm Akdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 182301
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
301 pm akdt Mon mar 18 2019

Short term While an atmospheric river sweats moderate rainfall
across a narrow band across the northeast gulf including yakutat,
forecasters have been sweating when this band slides east and how
much more the rivers and streams around yakutat can handle without
swelling over banks. This rainfall event produced around 1 to 4
inches across the bulk of the panhandle this weekend, but yakutat
and pelican have each recorded around 6 inches of rainfall. Late
model guidance, including the hrrr have been a little more
hopeful regarding end of the barrage of rainfall. The gfs, ecmwf,
and NAM have all been a little high estimating qpf, which makes
the hrrr that much more impressive at guiding changes. Our best
proxy of what is going on has been the situk, and it has been
steadily rising all day around 0.1 foot per hour, sometimes
higher. We are still looking for a crest, but as of yet, the
rainfall has been too persistent. But mimic satellite data has
indicated that the deepest moisture has moved west of the region,
which should indicate diminishing rainfall trends here this
afternoon. But we will continue to monitor on whether minor
flooding does occur, but as of right now, we still think flooding
will be avoided. After tonight, rainfall will remain west of
yakutat, and will not return to the panhandle until Wednesday when
a weak front presses up against the panhandle slowly through
Wednesday night. But other than yakutat and the immediate coast,
most areas will see a dry Wednesday and should not look forward to
more rainfall until at least Wednesday night.

Winds are strong and gusty still in yakutat and in skagway (gusts
to 45 mph) and along the klondike highway where sustained wind
speeds have edged upwards to 40 mph. This has prompted us to
extend the gusty winds at least for yakutat. Winds have greatly
begun to diminish across the rest of the panhandle. This trend
continues tonight to set up potential for patchy fog development
in many areas of the panhandle. Capping, light winds, and clear
skies, as well as saturated ground will support this.

Finally, temperatures have rocketed into the lower 60s over much
of the southern and central panhandle. This is but a prelude to
Tuesday when skies will be clear and an offshore gradient should
help temperatures with some adiabatic boosting. But flow will not
be super strong, and so the worry is that some areas may be open
to channel breezes. With surface water temperatures around 40 to
45 degrees for much of the inner channels, this will tend to curb
high rises in temperature. But that said, more high temperature
records look likely Tuesday, and probably Wednesday as well.

Ensembles continue to suggest atmospheric temperatures up to 3 to
4 standard deviations above normal.

The more heavily impactful immediate short-term forecast was given
the most attention as the rest of the forecast looked very
reasonable. Although temperatures were edged upward Tuesday as
much as adjusted to current conditions for this afternoon.

Forecast confidence is good.

Long term Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday
did not make any big changes to the longer term forecast. Still
looks like a weakening occluded front will move onshore wed
afternoon or evening, then dissipate over the inner channels thu.

A stronger front will move NE into the area for Thu into the
weekend, with significant model differences on when it might come
onshore.

Did nudge temps upward a little bit for wed. Still concerned about
potential for mixing out to occur from at least the 925 mb level
downward wed, which would result in somewhat higher temps than
current forecast has them. Could see some records fall during wed.

A band of light precip is likely to move onshore Wed afternoon or
night as weakening occluded front moves in. This should diminish
thu as the front dissipates over the inner channels.

With the differences on how far NE the stronger front gets, there
is potential for a much warmer drier scenario for late week if the
more SW model solutions work out. Decided to keep a middle ground
pop forecast for Thu night into the weekend for the time being.

Overall, temps will remain above average through the period.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until midnight akdt tonight for akz018.

Strong wind until 10 pm akdt this evening for akz017.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz042-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-041-053.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022.

Jwa rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi22 min ESE 8 G 11 48°F 1017.3 hPa41°F
GIXA2 42 mi20 min 45°F 1017 hPa43°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi32 min Calm G 1 39°F 44°F1019.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi96 minESE 910.00 miFair45°F39°F80%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E8E6E7--E7SE11E8E9E10E11E7SE5E6NE4NW4NW3W4W5CalmE7SE9SE8E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM AKDT     16.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM AKDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:33 PM AKDT     17.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:13 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM AKDT     -2.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.915.913.910.46.43.11.21.53.77.411.615.317.517.715.511.46.41.6-1.7-2.7-1.22.47.212

Tide / Current Tables for Ratz Harbor, Prince of Wales Island, Alaska
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Ratz Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM AKDT     16.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM AKDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:33 PM AKDT     17.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM AKDT     -2.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.915.913.910.46.43.11.21.53.77.411.615.317.517.715.511.46.41.6-1.7-2.7-1.22.47.212

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.