Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:40AMSunset 3:09PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 11:06 AM AKST (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 3:46AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 431 Am Akst Tue Dec 18 2018
.gale warning through this morning...
Today..SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar ocean entrances, seas 13 ft. Rain.
Tonight..S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft late, except seas 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Wed..SW wind 15 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 181511
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
611 am akst Tue dec 18 2018

Short term through Wednesday night ... Satellite imagery and
surface analysis show a strong low in the SE gulf as of Tuesday
morning. This 965 mb low west of prince of wales island will
gradually weaken as it moves north today just off the outer
coast, eventually moving inland near CAPE fairweather Tuesday
night. Main concerns with this system will be the impacts of
strong winds across the southern and central panhandle.

Anticipating wind gusts to be around 40 to 50 mph this morning
before decreasing this afternoon. Brief gales are also expected
for the southern inner channels. Precipitation will also
accompany the low pressure system. Rain has already spread into
the central panhandle and will continue to move north. Rain bands
will produce more moderate rates. Most areas will remain as rain,
except the haines and klondike highways, which will likely see
the precipitation start out as snow this afternoon and evening,
with accumulations around 1-3 inches.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning an upper trough will push
across the gulf. Colder air and another burst of winds will wrap
around and behind the low as the upper trough helps push it
inland. Strong onshore flow will likely keep showers persisting
across the panhandle Wednesday. Snow levels will lower across the
area Wednesday as the colder air aloft moves in. Mix of rain and
snow is possible, although a modest se'ly surface gradient should
keep temperatures around the mid-30s to low-40s. An older low may
redevelop over the northern gulf Wednesday night with the trough,
and send out a weak front late Wednesday. With generally good
model agreement, forecast confidence is above average through the
period.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm
Monday... A low will be sitting over northern gulf between cape
suckling and yakutat at the start of this extended range forecast
period. There is a still some model disagreement regarding the
exact placement and whether it will split into two lows before it
slips south into the central gulf and fills Friday. Another low
will approaching the south-central gulf, with an inverted trof
extending up to the northwestern gulf by Saturday. As this system
continues to move northeast, the main low will move to the
central gulf while the triple point low asserts itself and starts
pulling the front apart that the two lows have in common. The
inverted trof stays anchored, extending up and across the kenai
peninsula through Sunday. By Monday a sharply defined ridge will
move in over the gulf from the west and push the two lows with
the occluded front into the outer coastal areas between sitka down
to southern haida gwaii. The lows will weaken and fill and the
front will weaken to a trof by Tuesday.

Over all the ensemble models are still the most consistent, with
too many run to run changes with the operational models in the
long term. The big picture is there is a low, then ridging
followed by another low. The finer details regarding the exact
timing and strength is still very much uncertain at this time.

The GFS is showing promise, along with the ECMWF continuing to be
trusted. Nudged the forecast with some GFS and ECMWF in the mid
range - Thursday and Friday. Blending in more wpc further out in
the future.

Temperatures are still looking to be on track to be near or below
freezing over the northern panhandle over the weekend, with the
south ranging in the low 30s to the upper 30s. Precipitation, if
it falls at all, will be light, mainly snow in the north and a
mix to all rain in the south.

Forecast confidence continues to be average.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz023-026>028.

Strong wind until noon akst today for akz025.

Strong wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-031-034>036-041>043.

Small craft advisory for pkz011>013-021-032-033-051>053.

Hartsock kv
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi57 min SE 30 G 48 48°F 978.5 hPa42°F
GIXA2 42 mi25 min SSE 17 G 28 48°F 981.6 hPa40°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi37 min ESE 9.9 G 17 47°F 45°F984.7 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi72 minESE 18 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy46°F37°F71%982.4 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM AKST     4.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:45 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM AKST     15.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:31 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:46 PM AKST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:56 PM AKST     13.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.95.94.54.25.27.29.712.314.315.314.913.210.47.34.42.62.23.25.48.210.712.513.112.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ratz Harbor, Prince of Wales Island, Alaska
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Ratz Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM AKST     4.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:46 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM AKST     15.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:46 PM AKST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:56 PM AKST     13.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.95.94.54.25.27.29.712.314.315.314.913.210.47.34.42.62.23.25.48.210.712.513.112.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.