Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Loring, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:56PM Saturday August 19, 2017 11:46 AM PDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:45AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 354 Am Akdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loring, AK
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location: 55.97, -131.52     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 191255
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
455 am akdt Sat aug 19 2017

Short term Saturday thru early Monday morning
jetstream is straight west at 30k ft this morning from the bering
sea right over the central panhandle up to 100 kt. One glance at
the IR satellite imagery shows cold cloud top temperatures
streaming directly at the panhandle bringing plenty of showers.

There are two frontal bands in all of this structure. First a
warm front will move onto the outer coast this afternoon and
satellite shows a cold front band just about to CAPE st. Elias at
4 am this morning. Both of these are associated with a 1004 mb
surface low center near middleton isl. Also at 4 am.

Had to forecast a barrier jet around 25 kt this morning along the
north gulf coast along with a slight chance of thunderstorms due
to the models insisting on an area of instability over the
northern outside waters. The rest of the forecasts are for lots
and lots of showers and moderate temperatures. The winds will
persist up in lynn canal again today due to a pretty good n-s
pressure gradient. Opted for lessor chances of showers late
tonight and Sunday, but kept in between pops then our heavy
rainfall event hits on Monday as described below. Increased the
winds especially on the outside waters Sunday night and early
Monday as per the 19 00z GFS model. Confidence high on this
forecast. Used 19 03 SREF for any pop adjustments to the previous
forecasts.

Long term Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday the
extended forecast begins wet, with a weather front moving across
the panhandle Monday. The associated low over the central gulf
will slowly track southeast toward bc through Wednesday. Rainfall
will be heavy at times especially over the southern panhandle;
this is due to large quantities of moisture being advected toward
the area from the remnants of tropical storm banyan. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday and Wednesday with a break in
precipitation possible between Thursday and Friday. Then another
front is forecasted to move across the panhandle next weekend.

Temperatures throught the extended forecast have little variation
between daytime and overnight hours, with a slight cooling trend
in the forecast through the week.

Monday's QPF values were adjusted using the 3 hourly run of the
00z GFS as a base with a 0.75 ratio applied and then blended at a
50 50 ratio with the existing forecast. This lead to an over all
increase in precipitation over the southern panhandle consistent
with the enhanced moisture arriving from banyan. Models have
shifted this band of moisture slightly further north from
yesterday. Tuesday and beyond a blend of the existing forecast and
rfcs values were used. This puts total rainfall between Monday
and Wednesday between 1 and 4 inches over the panhandle with the
highest values over the southern panhandle especially near
ketchikan and annette island.

Most of the changes to the extended forecast were made between
Monday and Wednesday, due to above average model agreement. Since
the low was strengthened, winds were increased Monday to small
craft levels within the eastern gulf. A blend of the NAM and gfs
was used Monday, with a ECMWF and GFS blend used through
Wednesday. Wpc guidance was used beyond that timeframe. Overall
forecast confidence is above average in the long term although
precipitation totals could vary.

Hydrology Still keeping a wary eye on heavy rain potential
sun-mon. System developing south of adak has abundant moisture
and warm air. It will likely interact with with colder air moving
south from bering strait which will help it strengthen into a
potent gale as it loops into the gulf late in the weekend. Latest
models seem to indicate the associated surface low will be south
of prince wm sound by Mon morning. A broad swath of wsw flow under
the low center will steer exceptionally moist air into the
panhandle or just south of the panhandle starting late sun. We are
collaborating with national weather prediction center on how this
system will evolve and it will be the main focus of subsequent
discussions and forecasts into the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041-042.

Jc byrd
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 45 mi46 min SSE 6 G 8.9 57°F1021.1 hPa (+0.5)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 62 mi36 min ESE 11 G 18 53°F 1017.5 hPa51°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK44 mi53 minSE 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F53°F97%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE9SE11SE15SE11SE9SE12SE7SE8SE7SE7S3SE4SE4S3S3SE3SE5SE4SE5SE6SE8SE10SE8
1 day agoSE15
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2 days agoSE11SE13SE13SE13SE11SE12SE12SE10SE8SE6SE6SE7SE5SE6SE8SE5SE4SE9SE7SE8SE11SE12SE16
G22
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Bell Arm, Bell Island, Alaska
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Bell Arm
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:45 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:31 AM AKDT     -1.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:55 AM AKDT     14.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 PM AKDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:50 PM AKDT     17.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.512.68.64.20.6-1.4-1.50.43.87.811.413.914.713.711.17.84.72.72.43.9710.714.316.8

Tide / Current Tables for Convenient Cove, Hassler Island, Alaska
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Convenient Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:32 AM AKDT     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:55 AM AKDT     14.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:51 PM AKDT     17.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.312.68.64.30.7-1.4-1.50.43.77.711.313.814.613.6117.84.72.62.33.86.810.514.116.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.