Sunrise 4:48 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 4:09 AM   Moonset 5:37 PM

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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 326 Am Akdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Periods of rain. Tonight - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Periods of rain. Mon - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.Mon night - S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Tue - SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Wed - S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Thu - SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 050709 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1109 PM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

SHORT TERM
/Through Sunday night/...Rain has returned to Southeast Alaska after a nice stretch of fine Spring weather.
An overcast moved over the northeast gulf coast overnight and rain began in Yakutat around 8 am. Overcast conditions have been spreading south and east in advance of the front & rain with only locations south of Frederick Sound under nothing more extensive than a thin, high cirrus layer as of mid day. By tomorrow morning, all but the far northern inner channels and the southern outer coast should be back in the rain. Sunday through Sunday night should see at least periods of rain across the vast majority of Southeast Alaska. The cloud cover will result in an increase in overnight lows and a decrease in daytime highs for this short term forecast period, which is not surprise. This will also obviate the need for another frost advisory. Winds over land will not be impactful either.


LONG TERM
An active weather pattern continues as system after system moves into the panhandle, with each one bringing concurrent chances of rain and wind across the area.

Aloft, the upper level pattern has sharply departed from its previous state of the past few weeks. The primary steering flow which was directing systems to the south and away from the panhandle will instead be directly overhead as a strong jet streak developing along the E flank of a deepening trough over the Bering Sea moves the primary area of upper level support over the panhandle.

Closer to the surface, this will enable multiple waves to develop and enter the panhandle. Lingering chances of precipitation associated with onshore flow in the wake of a system from Sunday will remain through Tuesday before another, stronger system arrives later on Tuesday or Wednesday. This second system will move up from the SW, moving around the broader area of upper level troughing. Expect a surge of more widespread precipitation to be possible with this system alongside the potential for small craft winds for many locations and gale force winds potentially in the gulf. Beyond this point operational guidance begins to falter as model spread grows, but ensembles are indicative of another system arriving immediately in the wake of the previous one, delivering another round of rain and wind to SE AK, with the active weather pattern likely to continue thereafter.

The primary changes to the forecast for next week were centered around adding additional detail to the wind forecast, as timing is slowly beginning to come into better agreement. Some changes to the QPF forecast were made as well, based on better consensus regarding the arrival of the main bands of precipitation across the panhandle.

AVIATION
Our extended period of VFR is gradually coming to an end here in SE Alaska as a front moves in from the west tonight bringing widespread rain and lower ceilings to much of the region Sunday. MVFR will be moving into Yakutat over the next 6 hours with IFR late tonight when the main area of rain moves in (lower ceilings). Otherwise, we will trend airports down to MVFR through late tonight into daybreak tomorrow for all except Ketchikan which will more likely hang on to VFR into the afternoon Sunday before dropping to MVFR as the more widespread rain moves in.

MARINE
Winds on the inside will be marginally impactful with localized winds to 20 kts. Seas 4 ft or less. On the outside, pre-frontal winds around 20 kts are expected with a small region of 25 kt small craft winds west of Icy Bay this evening. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kts and shift to the southwest post frontal. Combined seas 5-6 ft through the night, but a southwesterly long period swell of 8-9 ft will build in towards the outer coast on Sunday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

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Blake Island
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Sun -- 04:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:21 AM AKDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:36 AM AKDT     15.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:30 PM AKDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:52 PM AKDT     18.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Blake Island, Bradfield Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

Olive Cove
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Sun -- 04:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:29 AM AKDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:38 AM AKDT     15.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM AKDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:54 PM AKDT     18.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

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