Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrangell and, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday March 21, 2019 3:58 AM AKDT (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:11PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 341 Pm Akdt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the evening, then then 2 ft or less late.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrangell and , AK
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location: 56.22, -131.92     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 202248
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
248 pm akdt Wed mar 20 2019

Short term Two trends have emerged that have not been
encouraging for a lot of rainfall with the approaching front. One,
dewpoints have been very dry at the surface. Some of this is due
to a few stronger winds along the coast. But the frontal
orientation extending it from northwest to southeast, does indeed
help with an element of drying offshore flow. And two, probably
related, is that models have backed off some of the precipitation
onset times. Thus we have made a few minor adjustments early on,
delaying rain onset. But the overall message of rain likely for
the far north, but just a chance for the central panhandle stands.

And sadly, the southern panhandle will receive nothing. The
moisture with this front sticks around as another front enters the
gulf on Thursday. But again with the frontal orientation and no
real eastward motion to drive into the panhandle, we fail to move
pop much away from the immediate coast Friday. Perhaps more
importantly, the winds do rise a little Thursday and Thursday
night, especially across the southern and central inner channels,
but nothing very impactful at this time.

More record temperatures were broken today including sitka. And we
may have more all-time march records broken for the third day in a
row as petersburg has climbed to 64 degrees. Cloud cover and some
channel breezes have arrested a lot of temperature climbs, but
the temperatures are still climbing in skagway and petersburg. We
are still expecting above normal temperatures through the next few
days, even as records may diminish.

No real change was made to the forecast as the overall trend looks
good.

Long term Friday through Wednesday night as of 10 pm
Tuesday ... Extended range forecast will begin with a large upper
low situated just south of the central aleutians. An upper ridge
will extend from south central canada northwest across british
columbia, the yukon, and the alaska interior. A 120 kt southerly
jet will be located between these two features and bisect the gulf
of alaska. A negatively tilted upper trough located in the
southeast quadrant of the upper low will dig southeast and cause
the jet to re-orient and shift north over the panhandle while
weakening through Saturday. The original upper low will drop south
through Monday and allow a large upper ridge to build in over the
gulf from the west. With another upper low over the bering sea,
this ridge main form an omega block on Tuesday. However, current
models are depicting the ridge as pinching off a close high which
then moves off to the northeast. Upper level model agreement ends
by Wednesday morning with ECMWF taking this high into the yukon
while GFS tracks it over the northern gulf coast and then back
out into the central gulf by late Wednesday night.

At the surface, a low over the western gulf on Friday morning will
push an occluded front towards the outer coast. Models indicating
that this front will stall along the outer coast and may not
result in any precip over the inner channels. Changes to the long
range forecast reflect this, with pop over the inner channels
diminished to chance or less for inside location south of cross
sound. As the upper jet re-orients and shifts north, will likely
result in a wave on the occluded frontal boundary and possibly
even a closed surface low that will re-orient the front to a more
east-west direction and move it north over the panhandle on
Saturday. Model agreement on this is fair. At this point,
precipitation is looking like it will end Saturday
afternoon evening from south to north, leaving only the northeast
gulf coast in rain through Sunday morning. The majority of
southeast alaska should see a dry Sunday with dry conditions
possibly lasting into mid-week next week.

Used an ensemble approach for updated to pressure through Friday
night with the national blend of models as a foundation for winds.

Blended SREF and NAM for pop through Friday night. Used 18z gfs
for pop and QPF through Sunday night. Adjusted wind speeds over
the gulf down through Sunday afternoon. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz052.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-036-041>043-051.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

99 99
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 42 mi48 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 1009.5 hPa42°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 63 mi40 min Calm G 1 41°F 44°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK31 mi62 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F37°F76%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE8SE7E73SE5CalmNW4W7W7W6W5W7W9SW6CalmW4S53SW4--E6--3
1 day agoSE8E6E7SE8E6E5E5CalmNW3NW4W8W6W5W7SW5CalmCalmSE8E6SE7SE4SE74SE6
2 days ago--E7SE11E8E9E10E11E7SE5E6NE4NW4NW3W4W5CalmE7SE9SE8E9--SE8--E6

Tide / Current Tables for Blake Island, Bradfield Canal, Alaska
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Blake Island
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Thu -- 01:50 AM AKDT     18.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:48 AM AKDT     -1.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM AKDT     19.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:09 PM AKDT     -2.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.71818.917.112.97.72.6-0.7-1.60.24.19.11417.719.218.114.49.13.5-0.8-2.7-1.81.66.6

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM AKDT     19.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:56 AM AKDT     -1.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 PM AKDT     19.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:17 PM AKDT     -2.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.6181917.313.48.23.2-0.3-1.5-03.78.713.817.619.318.314.89.64.1-0.4-2.6-21.26.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.