Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrangell and, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 4:11AMSunset 9:36PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:32 PM AKDT (21:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:33AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 940 Am Akdt Mon May 22 2017
Today..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt becoming nw 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft. Showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrangell and , AK
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location: 56.22, -131.92     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 221356
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
556 am akdt Mon may 22 2017

Short term Yesterday's front has split into two factions. The
northern half of the region is seeing numerous showers associated
with the remnant low center that moved inland near pws last night.

Majority of these showers are occurring along the outer coast
near pelican and northward to yakutat. The southern half of the
region is seeing widespread rain with rates of moderate to heavy
at times. Both areas with precip falling has low clouds or fog
with visibility around 3 miles. The interesting part of the
panhandle is a small portion of the central panhandle encompassing
juneau/gustavus/hoonah/angoon/sitka. These towns have had little
shower activity overnight and have more of a mid-level cloud deck.

The overall thinking is that some of the showers to the north
will shift south through the day or more will fill in from the
gulf, but at this point the pop is looking on the high end for
this gap.

Winds remain strong out of the south through lynn canal this
morning. These came up yesterday afternoon post front with eldred
rock at gale force and skagway getting persistent gusts of
40-50mph. Downtown haines and the juneau airport are also seeing
gusty winds. Expect winds to gradually ease through the afternoon
as the pressure gradient slackens.

Tonight a new weak low center looks to track e-ne across the
southern gulf. Latest models have shifted the low a bit north as
it moves into the SE gulf. Have adjusted the pressure/wind forecast
accordingly using the ECMWF and GFS for their good agreement on
placement. Expect winds to become light most places overnight,
then turn out of the north on the north side of the low by Tuesday
morning. The low will help to keep showers going over the central
and southern panhandle through tonight, then take the showers
with it as it shifts e-se through Tuesday afternoon. High pressure
will build over the gulf behind the low and increase the nwly
flow, which tends to be a drying pattern for us.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/ as of 10 pm Sunday. For
the start of the long range, at upper levels main features will
be high pressure ridge over the eastern gulf with a low north of
the bering sea with associated trough extending over the
aleutians. As the upper low begins to shift to the east the gulf
ridge will narrow and sharpen. By Friday the upper level trough
will have moved over the central gulf with the ridge axis now
moved over british columbia. For the rest of the weekend uncertain
if a wave will form over the northeast gulf.

At the surface the high pressure ridge will remain over the gulf
through the week. Main difference between previous forecasts is
indications that the trough from the bering sea low will move a
short wave into the north central gulf and this wave may ride
over the surface ridge and impact at least the northeast gulf, if
not the north central panhandle. At most thinking this would be
scattered to isolated showers mid week but may just move in mid
level cloud cover. As this wave dissipates, a return to high
pressure being the dominant feature. Will be watching for marine
layer formation under this gulf high.

The other trend for the long range is warming temperatures aloft,
with 850 mb temps reaching 8 to 10 c by the weekend. Have
continued to keep warm surface temps in the forecast, but with
uncertainty of marine layer formation have held off on getting
above the upper 60's, however 70 and higher is not out of the
question. Did drop yakutat temps a bit due to the incoming short
waves and onshore flow from ridge axis position.

Small craft winds on lee side of the ridge will diminish as the
axis moves east. Indication of tip jet formation near cross sound
and CAPE decision so keeping winds at least in the 15 to 20 kt
range for these locations. For rest of the inner channels not
expecting winds to be much more than 15 kt.

Used a blend of gfs/nam, which were in good agreement for the mid
week wave in the northeast gulf. Tempered down any pops from these
models due to initial uncertainty. Otherwise forecast confidence
is average.

Aviation Precip continues across the panhandle and will
diminish slowly from N to S today. Some breaks in the clouds has
resulted in some patchy fog/low stratus this morning. Meanwhile,
across the n, strong winds will slowly diminish through the
morning. Precip will maintain mvmc/tempo imc conditions across
the S through the day. Overall, a gradually improving trend across
the region today. Held off on including fg in tafs attm, but will
need to consider the potential as skies break overnight into tue.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... Strong wind until 1 pm akdt this afternoon for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012.

Small craft advisory for pkz013-022.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041>043-051>053.

Bc/ferrin/prb
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 42 mi83 min SE 11 G 14 49°F 1017 hPa49°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 63 mi51 min SSE 8 G 9.9 52°F 49°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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SE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK31 mi37 minN 010.00 miLight Rain52°F50°F93%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13
G20
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SE7E9SE5NW4--S4CalmCalmCalmCalmE6E3W3E4E4--CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE8SE6E4SE11
G20
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2 days agoW5W4W5W3NW3SW4SW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm--E4SE4E4E4E4E10SE10E10

Tide / Current Tables for Blake Island, Bradfield Canal, Alaska
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Blake Island
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Mon -- 03:32 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:44 AM AKDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:56 AM AKDT     14.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 PM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:15 PM AKDT     17.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.910.87.13.81.61.12.45.18.511.613.814.613.611.17.74.42.11.42.75.49.112.715.617

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:34 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:53 AM AKDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM AKDT     14.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:45 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:57 PM AKDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:17 PM AKDT     17.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.111.27.64.21.81.12.24.88.211.513.814.713.711.384.62.21.42.458.712.515.617.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.