Sunrise 4:24 AM   Sunset 9:23 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM   Moonset 3:05 AM

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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 312 Am Akdt Thu May 16 2024
Today - N wind 10 kt becoming sw. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. Tonight - W wind 15 kt becoming nw late. Seas 3 ft. Fri - Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mon - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 161345 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 545 AM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

SHORT TERM
Drier weather is in store for the panhandle as what's left of a low that brought rain and wind to SE AK disintegrates entirely. Although a few rain showers remain possible through the day, anticipate mostly dry weather and significant breaks in the cloud deck across the area. The upper level trough responsible for said low is moving into British Columbia, being replaced by a ridge building in across the Gulf.
This ridge will help bring broad NW flow to the outer coastal waters before a low moves into the Gulf on Friday, bringing S flow back to the eastern Gulf. Fog during the early morning on Thursday will rapidly dissipate as diurnal heating takes hold, though fog could return to some areas overnight. Anticipate high temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Thursday, with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s Thursday night. A marine layer will likely return along the outer coast Thursday night, bringing with it lower ceilings.

Minor adjustments were to made to reflect the potential for cooler temperatures in the northern half of the Panhandle on Thursday night, and greater depth was added to a marine layer along the outer coast. Some changes were made to the wind direction during parts of the overnight time frame Thursday night in the inner channels, as drainage flow will likely help encourage a more N flow in the inner channels, barring sea breezes Thursday afternoon, prior to the arrival of synoptic scale southerly flow around the eastern side of a low entering the Gulf on Friday. Made some minor changes to PoP and QPF, but these were mainly just refining the chances of some occasional rain showers. Overall, the forecast remains largely on track.

LONG TERM
/Friday into Wednesday/...Unfortunately the surface ridge that was moving into the panhandle through the day Thursday appears to be more transient in nature, as a weak surface low is set to move into the northern gulf on Friday. Good news is that with a lack of upper level support, this system is expected to be dissipating as it progresses south and eastward. This means still a low chance of light precipitation for the panhandle, primarily expected for the southern outer coast. However, this does mean even places that stay dry could still see some more cloud cover.
Overall still good for outdoor activities as temperatures are expected to range from low to mid 50s in the north to around 60 in the south to start the weekend. Also, with the dissipating low and transient ridge, still not expecting significant winds aside from a brief coastal jet heading into Cross Sound on the north side of another ridge Saturday into Sunday, though only expecting winds of reaching around 20 kt with higher gusts.

Another transient ridge will move in behind the decaying low Friday into Saturday, with models beginning to diverge in their solutions for the start of the week in terms of timing and strength of the next system moving into the gulf Sunday. While onshore flow is likely to continue throughout this period, low confidence in terms of timing for any moderate precipitation returning to the panhandle.
Overall can expect a wet start to next week whether the rain arrives Sunday night, or first half of the day Monday followed by a drying trend into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Friday/...Besides a chance of scattered lowered CIGs and VISs to within the MVFR/IFR range due to some early- morning fog, which should thin-out post-sunrise, conditions will remain within the VFR flight category through the 24-hour TAF period as the region will be under the reign of a ridge of high pressure. Additionally, SFC winds and LLWS values will remain benign through the period due to a relatively relaxed pressure gradient over the area.

MARINE
Anticipate winds in most of the inner channels to be on the lower side Thursday, with 5 to 15 kt winds for many of the inner channels. The exception will likely be ocean entrances, especially in the vicinity of Cape Spencer where stronger winds may be present at times. Prevailing flow for most locations will be out of the N or NW, though sea breezes will occur for some locations, resulting in changing wind directions during the afternoon time period. Made some adjustments to the nighttime wind directions as think that prevailing synoptic pattern will largely remain out of the NW until the arrival of a low in the Gulf on Friday. In the outer coastal waters winds remain out of the NW with waveheights reaching up to 9 ft off the coast of Prince of Wales Island, and 5 to 7 ft from Cape Ommaney N.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ320-321.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.

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Exchange Cove
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Thu -- 02:19 AM AKDT     5.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM AKDT     10.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:38 PM AKDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM AKDT     11.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Exchange Cove, Alaska, Tide feet

St.John Harbor
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Thu -- 02:20 AM AKDT     5.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM AKDT     10.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:39 PM AKDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM AKDT     11.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St.John Harbor, Zarembo Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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