Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whale Pass, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:37PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:29 AM AKDT (15:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 356 Am Akdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Fri night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whale Pass, AK
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location: 56.28, -132.99     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 171353
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
553 am akdt Thu aug 17 2017

Short term through Fri night a surface low pressure wave is
located 100 mi west of sitka this morning moving NE around 30 to
40 kt. This feature will fill and dissipate over the coastal
mountains by this evening. Satellite imagery depicts a long
moisture plume of highly saturated air extending from seak to the
sw almost to the dateline. The center of counter-clockwise
circulation for the broader upper air low pressure center is over
prince william sound this morning. Lightning stikes were detected
overnight in the vicinity of CAPE suckling west of yakutat. The
area most favorable for thunderstorms will gradually expand SE to
aound sitka so isolated t-storms remain in north coastal
forecasts today.

Forecast models consistently advertise wavy frontal systems will
continue to march along the moisture plume over the pacific and
into seak through Fri night. I perferred the GFS model for
adjusting previous forecasts to current conditions. These
adjustments did not change the screaming message of continued
rain. I did not change rainfall amounts but the rain will come in
surges and pin pointing amounts will be very difficult.

The combination of increasing wind speeds aloft and fluctuating
surface pressure gradients is causing periods of higher winds and
resulting seas. For today... Lynn canal and stephens passage winds
were in the 20-30 range last evening but will subside through the
day. However expect SW winds to increase some this evening over
the southern inner channels and southern outer coast when high
pressure builds in after todays weather front. Seas along the
southern outer coast will remain at or above 8 ft through thurs
night.

Temperatures will be rather stationary the next 24 to 36 hours.

Clouds, rain, and overall lack of change in air mass
characteristics will keep daytime and nighttime temps generally
within 5-7 degrees.

Long term Saturday through Thursday extended forecast
continues the trend of wet and cool through next week. A broad
upper level trough remains planted over alaska through much of the
period supporting SW flow at most levels of the atmosphere. This
is briefly broken up mid week as an upper low breaks off from the
main trough and dives se.

Main concern is for rainfall Sun into Mon as deep tropical
moisture from former tropical storm banyan gets advected into the
area. Current model performance on this system is not that great
right now. First off, the low that is drawing this moisture
northeastward is not being handled very well by the various
forecast models. ECMWF and canadian are trended slower then what
the GFS and some of the ensemble means are showing for low track.

Further more the track of the moisture plume itself is still up in
the air. Currently it appears that the moisture will first arrive
with a front on Sun followed by a second surge of moisture on mon
morning associated with a following shortwave. Recent model runs
are starting to trend that second surge farther south with most of
the moisture impacting british columbia rather then SE alaska.

Elected to not do much with the current forecast to await to see
if the southward trend holds out.

Into mid next week, the upper low dropping southeastward toward
haida gwaii will cut off the SW flow in favor of a more
southeasterly flow over the area. Showers expected to remain in
the area but will not be as heavy as recently. Also the farther
north you get the drier it will be. Mainly used wpc guidance for
updates where needed.

Hydrology Gauged rivers are rising as you would expect given
the persistent and widespread precipitation... Some on the order
of a foot or two since Wed morning. Rivers in the southern
panhandle crested Wed evening after a period of very heavy rain
there. Northern panahandle streams are rising this morning due to
heavy showers overnight. Montana creek in juneau and taiya river
near skagway are among those that bear watching today as they may
approach action stage. We are also keeping an eye on a potential
heavy rain event in the Sun to Mon time frame. This system is
coming from the sub-tropical western pacific so it is associated
with a warm air mass. Freezing levels could rise to 10k feet
meaning plenty of rain runoff rather than high elevation snow.

Aviation Showers are once again causing highly variable
ceilings and visibility values betweenVFR and ifr at the
terminals. With the shower bands in this system, it was difficult
to time the heavier precip for the the lower conditions, but one
look at satellite and anyone would say wet with impacts to flight
operations. The next TAF issuance will have to consider pockets of
llws as some moderate winds at 2000 ft develop with timing in the
evening or even later.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-041-043-051.

99 eal
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 22 mi79 min SE 18 G 26 54°F 1011.8 hPa52°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 64 mi67 min SE 14 G 28
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 76 mi29 min SSE 17 G 20 53°F 1010.6 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK34 mi33 minENE 86.00 miRain Fog/Mist54°F51°F94%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmE8CalmCalmCalmCalm3W3SW3S8E3S4CalmNW4--E5E4----NE3E10NE8
1 day agoE10E9E9
G16
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E9E9E7--Calm--------CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoE3CalmNW3SW6NW4CalmE3CalmN3E5CalmW4CalmCalmSW3--------E7E11----E11

Tide / Current Tables for Bushy Island, Snow Passage, Alaska
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Bushy Island
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Thu -- 12:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 AM AKDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM AKDT     11.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:29 PM AKDT     3.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM AKDT     14.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.64.62.10.80.82.14.36.99.210.811.310.7975.13.945.17.29.712.113.814.413.5

Tide / Current Tables for Exchange Cove, Alaska
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Exchange Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:48 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:31 AM AKDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM AKDT     11.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM AKDT     3.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM AKDT     14.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
84.82.20.80.724.26.89.210.911.510.99.47.35.44.24.15.27.39.812.314.114.713.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.