Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Petersburg, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:21AMSunset 9:46PM Wednesday July 18, 2018 10:03 PM AKDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:11PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 324 Pm Akdt Wed Jul 18 2018
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..W wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.
Thu night..W wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late.
Fri..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petersburg, AK
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location: 56.63, -132.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 182242
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
242 pm akdt Wed jul 18 2018

Hydrology update as of 2 pm Wednesday... Suicide basin has
begun to release water into mendenhall lake. According to current
lake level sensors, water levels are rising, despite a lack of
accumulating precipitation. The latest stage on mendenhall lake
was 6.46 feet as of 2 pm. Flood stage at the lake is 9.0 feet.

There is the potential for flooding to begin by late Thursday
afternoon, and it is expected to reach a near record peak stage of
around 12 feet Thursday night, early Friday morning. Water levels
should fall rapidly after it crests. However, there is
uncertainty in the initial glacial lake volume, which may result
in varying crest height and timing.

Once the lake stage reaches 9.1 feet, water will cover west
glacier spur road between skater's cabin and the west glacier
trailhead. Also, water will flow into the mendenhall lake
campground. Once the lake stage reaches 10.9 feet, view drive will
be flooded and impassible with significant flooding to some homes
in the area.

In addition, the glacially dammed summit lake near hyder
continues to release water into the salmon river. At this time, no
impacts have been reported; however, flooding along the salmon
river road near 9 mile is possible during the event. As of 10 am
Wednesday, river gauge levels are at 26 feet. The salmon river is
expected to crest below 27 feet sometime Wednesday.

Short term a low currently over the central panhandle has
brought some off and on rain showers and foggy conditions for
most of the panhandle today. Showers will taper off into tonight,
as a ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern gulf.

Pressure changes were not made due to good model agreement, with
the GFS matching most closely to current. A blend with the 12z gfs
was used on the gulf winds through 00z Saturday with the ridge
building. Some directions were adjusted to account for the
increasing northwesterly flow and local sea breeze effects.

With the exception of some lingering showers, the panhandle should
remain relatively dry into the weekend. Pop's were adjusted using
a blend of the namdng and some gfs. (the namdng was also used for
sky cover, as a marine layer pushes into the gulf on Friday). Qpf
was a blend of the aprfc.

Maximum temperatures were adjusted downward by a degree or two for
Thursday and Friday, using mostly GFS and some local effects.

While some clearing will occur by afternoon tomorrow, just how
much solar radiation it will allow to heat up is the question. No
changes were needed to minimum temperatures. Fog was included for
the late Thursday night early Friday period for the southern
panhandle. Either with some breaks in the clouds or if precip
continues, it could just be a lower stratus deck impairing
visibility.

Model agreement is doing relatively well overall, however, timing
differs somewhat with the breakdown of the ridge. Our biggest
concern for the short term will be the hydro impacts.

Long term Thursday through next Tuesday by Friday, the omega
block will clearly be in place, but the eastern upper low will be
positioned over the north coast mountains of bc with southeast
alaska firmly in the grasp of offshore flow in the upper levels,
and much of the low levels as well. A surface ridge will have
moved into the gulf, and due to strengthening upper level ridge
over our region, we should witness strengthening of that surface
ridge as well along with warming aloft. This will lead to marine
stratus developing over the gulf waters, and a thermal trough
developing in the warmest spots in southern southeast alaska. As
yesterday we significantly warmed temperatures over the weekend,
today, we have markedly altered sky cover. We increased sky cover
across the northern gulf and made things sunny over the
panhandle. This pattern should linger through early next week.

While not explicitly including yakutat and sitka, coastal
communities may experience some cloud coverage, especially during
night- time and mornings.

Today, model runs have begun to strengthen the low to the west of
us such that fronts will begin to tilt the ridge into canada and
potentially allow for some rain reaching the northeast gulf coast
early next week, as early as Monday. But tonight, we hold our
cards and keep things dry, even warming temperatures for the
panhandle Monday. We have seen these changes before. Winds
therefore were largely left untouched from the previous forecast.

The message remains: southeast alaska, your weekend looks warm,
dry, and stellar.

Gfs ECMWF wpc helped dry out pop even further, and GFS helped
warm temps early next week. Meanwhile forecaster experience
largely determined stratus.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
akz025.

Marine... None.

Ss voveris jwa
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 42 mi54 min W 8 G 9.9 56°F 1021.6 hPa52°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 58 mi64 min SSW 6 G 6 52°F 1022.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK13 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F53°F97%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE43NE4NE3E5E3NE4NE5E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE3NE5E3E6E3E4E5CalmCalm
2 days agoW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW7N3S7SW5CalmCalmN3E5E3E3E3E3E3E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchor Point
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Thu -- 12:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:49 AM AKDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM AKDT     13.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:53 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:01 PM AKDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 PM AKDT     15.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.523.25.68.711.513.313.612.410741.91.11.94.37.611.113.815.114.813.110.57.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Lockwood, Woewodski Island, Wrangell Narrows, Alaska
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Point Lockwood
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:29 AM AKDT     2.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM AKDT     13.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:53 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:41 PM AKDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 PM AKDT     14.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.33.76.18.911.41313.211.99.46.33.41.61.32.558.111.213.514.714.412.69.86.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.