Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kupreanof, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 4:04PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 8:25 PM AKST (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 312 Pm Akst Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Tonight..E wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow showers late.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning.
Wed night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kupreanof, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232337
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
237 pm akst Tue jan 23 2018

Short term through Thursday night main story of the short
range today is the return of outflow winds followed by another
shot of snow for mid week. Large upper level trough over the gulf
and alaska is directing a new cold air mass south out of the
arctic. Most of the cold air will miss us to the west but enough
should pile up in the southern yukon to have strong outflow resume
across the northern panhandle tonight. Gale force winds expected
in lynn canal along with gusts to 40 mph for skagway, haines near
lynn canal, and in downtown juneau due to a moderate taku wind
developing. Winds expected to continue into Wed afternoon before
an approaching front causes those winds to diminish. Few changes
made here as outflow was generally well represented by guidance today.

Focus then turns to the weak front moving north through the
panhandle tonight into Wed night. It appears to be a series of two
weak fronts, the first is moving into the southern panhandle this
afternoon before it nearly stalls briefly over frederick sound
wed. The second comes north Wed afternoon and merges with the
first over the central panhandle before rapidly moving north wed
night. Both fronts are rather weak and lacking moisture so only
light precip and low winds are expected. Cold air will still be in
place for the northern and central panhandle so snow is the main
expected ptype from sumner strait northward. Highest snow amounts
are expected over the central panhandle around frederick sound as
the first front sort of stalls briefly wed. However, the general
lack of moisture with these systems and its general fast movement
will mainly result in less then 4 inches of accumulation in any 12
hour period for Wed into Wed night so no winter weather advisory
have been issued at this time. NAM and canadian used for updates
to pop and QPF to narrow down the timing and structure of the
precip bands.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday ... Long range period
begins with an upper low south and east of the gulf of alaska
close to the washington coast. Another upper low located over the
northern interior will be dropping into the north gulf vicinity
kenai peninsula late Thursday night. Upstream, an omega block will
have formed over the bering sea and extreme eastern russia. The
upper low will slowly track south and dominate the western gulf
by Friday morning with an upper trough extending southeast across
the eastern gulf. A short wave will develop along the upper jet
stream and the associated surface reflection will move into the
southeastern gulf by Saturday morning. Models are trying to
undercut the omega block with a strongly negatively tilted upper
trough late in the weekend. At this same time, models are digging
a shortwave to the southwest along the southern coast. Have
doubts about these two events happening so will keep a close
watch on how follow-on model runs treat these features. Near-
surface cold air rotating around the upper low(s) has made its way
into the gulf and colder surface temperatures are already being
observed. A warmer low-level airmass will not arrive until at
least mid-week next week, so true southeast winter temperatures
will persist through the coming week. Precipitation through at
least mid weekend will be convective in nature, so expect snow
showers with occasional rain showers over southern zones.

Additionally, no low level warm air advection to scour out the
cold surface air should allow the snow that does fall to stick
around for a while without getting excessively rained on. Models
are indicating the possibility of a front late in the next
weekend. If that in fact does happen, the rain-snow line may push
farther north - into the central panhandle - but that is still a
long way off.

Changes to pressure and wind limited to Thursday and Thursday
night using a blend of GFS and ecmwf. Pop and QPF primarily from
nam for the same time frame with little change for the remainder
of the long range forecast. Temps unchanged. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from 6 pm akst this evening through Wednesday
afternoon for akz025.

Strong wind from 9 pm akst this evening through Wednesday
afternoon for akz018-019.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-022-041.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-021-031>033-035-036-042-043-051.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz052.

Eal fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 48 mi75 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 993 hPa38°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 50 mi25 min N 20 G 25 35°F 996 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK16 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair27°F26°F96%996.6 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3S4SE6SE7N3W3CalmS3W4SW3SW3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4W4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4E4W4SW3CalmW3CalmS3CalmCalmW4N5CalmCalmNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmS3Calm
2 days agoE4NE7N6CalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmW3S4SW3CalmCalmCalmNE3W4CalmE3CalmCalmW3W3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Islands, Duncan Canal, Alaska
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Castle Islands
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 AM AKST     14.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:56 AM AKST     3.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM AKST     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:05 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:09 PM AKST     12.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:51 PM AKST     3.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.157.610.312.714.114.513.511.38.55.83.93.33.95.67.79.811.412.111.610.17.85.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grief Island, Duncan Canal, Alaska
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Grief Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:35 AM AKST     14.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:56 AM AKST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM AKST     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:05 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM AKST     12.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 PM AKST     3.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.25.17.810.71314.314.513.3118.35.843.44.15.8810.111.612.211.59.97.65.43.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.