Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kupreanof, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday April 20, 2019 8:22 AM AKDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 334 Am Akdt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sun night..E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Mon..SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kupreanof, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 201404
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
604 am akdt Sat apr 20 2019

Short term Active weather with showers today, then two systems
affecting the region in quick succession. Scattered showers today
are caused by CAA under swly onshore flow. The unstable airmass
develops the scattered showers over the ocean then they become
enhanced along SW facing mountain slopes. The air aloft is cold
enough for some snow to be mixed in (observed at yakutat and
hoonah overnight), but the surface temperatures are to warm for
any accumulation to stick around. Showers are less likely over the
southern inner channels today due to a surface ridge of high
pressure along the coast mtns causing some drying at the mid
levels. The ridge is also causing surface winds light under the
ridge axis and out of the s-e 10-15 mph elsewhere.

Winds will gradually back ahead of a low pressure system and assoc
front moving into the gulf from the south. The low center will
remain mainly on the western half of the gulf, but the front will
cause gale force winds over the eastern gulf and some gust to
around 40mph along the southern outer coast late tonight. Expect
rain to spread north late tonight through Sunday as the w-e
oriented front moves through. Temperatures will warm with the
front, so expect snow levels to rise from around 1000ft Sunday
morning (over the northern inner channels) to around 2000ft by
afternoon.

There will most likely be some breaks behind the front Sunday
afternoon evening but timing of that in the forecast will be
almost indistinguishable as the next system moves in so quickly.

This new low will move into the SE gulf from the southwest and
should be nearing the coast of baranof island around midnight.

However, models are still taking different tracks with the low,
this is discussed in more detail in the extended forecast. No
matter the track, expect moderate to heavy rain to move in across
the southern outer coast by Sunday evening, then spread northward
overnight.

Main adjustment to the forecast package were to make a sharper
difference between the lower pop of scattered showers today and
higher pop with the frontal rain late tonight.

Long term Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday. Strong
upper trough low over western alaska, and the short waves
rotating around it, continue to dictate the weather for the
panhandle for the long range. This pattern is rather persistent
but does show signs of braking down by late week. The favored
scenario is an upper high from the arctic cutting into the
northern part of the trough and causing the trough to positively
tilt before cutting off the low completely by fri. However, there
are some very different ideas on where the upper low will be by
that point (scenarios range from the bristol bay area to the se
gulf), so forecast confidence for the late week period is low to
moderate.

At the surface, the main system of note is the rather strong low
coming into the panhandle from the SW for Sun night and mon. This
feature was new to the forecast yesterday, and guidance has
continued to latch onto it since then. The main question is what
track it will take into the panhandle. Right now scenarios range
from CAPE fairweather (gfs) to CAPE decision (nam) depending on
how much of an influence the upstream upper trough has on curving
the low track farther north. In ether scenario, Mon looks to be
another windy and wet day with widespread areas of 25 to 30 kt
winds in marine areas and the possibility of gusts to 40 mph or
more for many southern panhandle and outer coast areas. The
differences on track mainly affects how fast the higher winds
spread north with the more northerly track spreading the winds
faster. Currently went with a middle of the road approach as
future runs continue to refine where this features eventually
goes.

For mid to late week, a few more short waves will be pushing
through the area bringing more precip and some enhanced winds.

For most of these, timing is something guidance has yet to work
out, so confidence on when any of these short waves move through
is rather low. However, there is one short wave that guidance has
more of a handle on. That one comes in from the SW on tue. Feature
is somewhat weak however, so at most expect more organized
showers and a brief wind increase as it moves through.

The other feature of note for the mid to late week period is the
area of cooler air that will be moving in behind the strong mon
low. 850 mb temps are still expected to drop down to around -7c
over much of the area. Likely will see snow levels drop to only a
few hundred feet above sea level, and some areas in the north may
see snow mix in with the rain showers mid week, particularly at
night. No snow accumulation expected at sea level at this time but
higher elevations could see some accumulations.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind late tonight for akz023-027.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031>036.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Ferrin eal
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 48 mi73 min ESE 8.9 G 13 40°F 1020.5 hPa36°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 50 mi23 min SSE 16 G 19 40°F 1020.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK16 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F36°F93%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE4SW63SE4N5E8NE6E3CalmNE3NW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago33E445SE9S8S7S10SW7S3N4Calm3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Castle Islands, Duncan Canal, Alaska
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Castle Islands
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Sat -- 02:16 AM AKDT     18.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:19 AM AKDT     -2.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM AKDT     16.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:29 PM AKDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1316.518.317.614.49.43.9-0.6-2.8-2.40.14.18.712.915.716.615.111.56.82.50-02.15.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current
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Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg)
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Sat -- 02:40 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM AKDT     -5.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:03 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:20 PM AKDT     5.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:19 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:26 PM AKDT     -4.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:15 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.21.9-0.9-3.4-5-5.6-5-3.1-0.22.64.45.253.30.8-1.7-3.6-4.6-4.5-3.2-0.72.14

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.