Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kupreanof, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:49PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 10:23 AM AKDT (18:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 404 Am Akdt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory tonight...
Today..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the evening, then showers late.
Wed..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..SW wind 15 kt becoming se. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt becoming sw. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kupreanof, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 161432
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
632 am akdt Tue oct 16 2018

Short term A strong front oriented s-n over the eastern gulf
will be the main weather maker in the short term period. As of 5am
yakutat was reporting heavy rain and wind gusts of around 45mph.

This front is very narrow with a sharp cut off between areas with
rain and partly cloudy skies. As the front shifts east over the
panhandle expect wind gusts of 25-35mph and heavy rain. By
midnight tonight the front will be over the southern panhandle
from wrangell to hydaburg, then the ketchikan area will get some
much needed heavy rain through early Wednesday morning.

The rain will train as it flows northward along the front and
cause around an inch of QPF over a 6-12 hour period. Some minor
flooding is possible, but since the rain will be moving out it
should also be short-lived.

There is cold air advection behind the front which will cause a
changeover to showers. As is common in the fall time, there is
potential for thunderstorms over gulf in the late afternoon then
even into the yakutat area Tuesday night. Onshore flow and caa
will continue the likelihood of showers through Wednesday.

The GFS was the primary guidance for forecast updates, but most
models were in good agreement.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday ... Active fall weather
pattern will continue through early next week. Highly amplified
long wave trough in place over the ak peninsula extending well
south into the subtropical npac. An impressive pv MAX on the nose
of a 130kt+ upper jet will eject northward into the northern gulf
by early Friday. These upper features align well with the low
level frontal zone so expect the resultant low front to be quite
intense. Ensemble ivt probabilities show 70-80% likelihood of ivt
in excess of 500 kg m S by mid day Friday which matches most
operational guidance depiction of a deep subtropical moisture
plume being drawn northward into the panhandle. Another period of
heavy rainfall is likely Friday across much of the panhandle.

Winds will also increase rapidly over the gulf with ensemble probs
of storm force conditions over the northern gulf quite high for a
96 hr forecast. Models still differ on the placement of any
significant surface wave development on the front for Friday, with
the ec being the most aggressive in showing a significant wind
event for the entire outer coast and southern panhandle. Bottom
line, while not explicitly in the forecast due to uncertainty at
this time, there is the potential for a strong fall wind storm on
Friday for parts of the panhandle.

On the plus side, the persistent long wave ridging which has kept
much needed soaking rainfall out of the drought affected areas of
the southern panhandle shows signs of becoming flatter and more
progressive. This would allow more significant rainfall to affect
even southern areas beginning on Friday and continuing into early
next week.

As usual, operational models differ on strength and placement of
the next strong low forecast to move into the gulf over the
weekend. Ensemble surface pressures from both the naefs and eps
show a broad 980mb low over the western gulf by Saturday night
which would lend credence to the idea of yet another significant
fall storm for the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 10 am akdt this morning for akz017.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz052.

Gale warning for pkz022-042-043-051-053.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-031>036-041.

Ferrin del
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 48 mi73 min SE 15 G 22 54°F 1019.1 hPa37°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 50 mi23 min SSW 16 G 19 51°F 1018.9 hPa (+0.4)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 69 mi61 min SE 28 G 36

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK16 mi27 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F34°F44%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5W6W7W6W4W3343W34Calm33CalmW64W654NW6NW4W5SW5
1 day agoW3CalmNE4Calm3CalmNE3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmSW3CalmSW3W3CalmW3W4CalmCalmCalm4
2 days agoCalmW3CalmE5CalmW4CalmW3CalmS3SW3CalmCalm3SW3W3SW3SW3CalmCalm35NW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Islands, Duncan Canal, Alaska
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Castle Islands
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Tue -- 12:27 AM AKDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM AKDT     11.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 12:46 PM AKDT     6.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM AKDT     12.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.73.65.27.1910.411.211.310.497.56.56.26.87.99.310.711.812.211.710.48.56.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current
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Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg)
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Tue -- 01:07 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:30 AM AKDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 10:36 AM AKDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:26 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:20 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:40 PM AKDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.21.32.12.32.31.70.6-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.3-0.50.71.61.81.71.30.3-0.8-1.7-2.1-2.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.