Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 3:40PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:41 AM AKST (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 321 Pm Akst Tue Nov 13 2018
.gale warning through early this evening...
Tonight..S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the evening. Showers.
Wed..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Wed night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the evening.
Thu..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances.
Thu night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less.
Fri..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 132351
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
251 pm akst Tue nov 13 2018

Short term This is a very dynamic system that we're dealing
with this afternoon. A strong surface low rapidly developed along
the eastern gulf, just off the coast of southeast alaska this
morning. As of this afternoon, this low continues to push north
through the panhandle. The most recent runs for the deterministic
models, as well as the cams, have begun to show this low in more
of the form forecasters suspected it would take earlier this
morning. Surface observations and satellite and radar imagery, as
witnessed throughout the day, continue to show this as a very
strong system. The CAPE decision obs have reported peak winds of
70 to 75 knots this afternoon. In addition to the wrap around seen
on radar that was reminiscent of an eye for a tropical system,
ascat scatterometer winds painted a broad area of greater than 40
knot winds near the entrance to chatham strait, and as of 1:30pm,
a smaller area of greater than 50 knots near the CAPE decision
area. This timing also coincided with the peak wind obs of greater
than 70 knots seen here. The vad wind profile for the pacg radar
continues to show a strong low level jet and veering winds with
height, which continue to pull in the warm, moist air necessary to
sustain this feature. Based on these factors, the high wind
warnings for zones 23, 24, and 26 remain in effect until 6pm this
evening. We've also received reports of strong winds and high seas
with this system, as well as a few lightning strikes recorded
near prince of wales with some of the stronger cells developing
within the precipitation bands.

As this low moves further north, we should still see winds increase
for more northern locations, including the juneau area. This
increase will most likely be the result of the wind push from the
low, rather than actual gap winds between the low and a surface
high pressure ridge over british columbia. Being that this is a
very unstable system, showers will be widespread and are expected
to continue. Thunderstorms will also be a possibility through
tonight and early tomorrow morning. We should then see winds
diminish after midnight tonight once the low weakens and moves out
of the panhandle.

The synoptic pattern through the next few days favors showers to
continue through Wednesday night, as a broad upper level trough
positioned over the western gulf continues to push embedded
shortwaves into the panhandle. After this low moves through
tonight, winds should also be less of a concern. By Thursday, an
upper level ridge looks to build in over the eastern gulf, which
will act to clear out precipitation and perhaps provide us with
some relatively clear weather, at least for a couple of days. With
this clearing on Thursday, fog development may be a possibility
that night for yakutat and more southern locations, including
klawock, petersburg, wrangell, and ketchikan. MOS guidance hinted
these places as having a better chance for fog based on the
smaller dewpoint depressions and calmer winds. In addition,
temperatures were adjusted down Thursday night to account for the
radiational cooling that will inevitably occur from the clearer
sky conditions.

Long term Thursday through Sunday a wet patterns remains in
place through the weekend. Thursday looks to begin with shower
activity associated with a remnant surface low pressure system in
place over panhandle. This system will dissipate through the day
with the associated shower activity diminishing as well. A brief
period of upper level ridging will build behind immediately behind
this system supporting the possibility of a brief dry period
between Thursday afternoon and Friday. The dry period will be
short lived as the next front arriving between late Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. Some heavy precipitation
especially along the northeast gulf coast is expected out of the
this system with strong southerly flow supporting deep moisture
transportation into area. As the upper level support shifts a bit
further east this weekend the front will push ashore the rest of
the panhandle with a wet weekend expected across the panhandle.

As far as snowfall... There is not much support for low elevation
snowfall through the weekend, outside of the highways near haines
and skagway. Strong southerly flow will warm temperatures to well
above freezing with snow levels rising back to 3000 to 5000ft
along the outer coast.

Overall forecast confidence is average with large spread between
model ensembles as well as poor run to run consistency.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning until 6 pm akst this evening for akz023-024-
026.

Strong wind until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz027.

Strong wind until midnight akst tonight for akz025.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz033-042.

Gale warning for pkz031-032-034-035-041.

Small craft advisory for pkz013-022-036-043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051>053.

Voveris jb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi42 min SE 13 G 14 48°F 1006.2 hPa (+0.0)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi80 min ESE 21 G 30
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi42 min Calm G 2.9 46°F 46°F1004.9 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK25 mi46 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F41°F89%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E13
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----SE8SE8E7E7SE8--E8E6
1 day agoSE6E9
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E8SE7E3--CalmE5E5--------E9SE11
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2 days agoE7--E7E5E6E8E7E7E8E5E6E9E8E7E8E6E6--CalmSE7E6E9E7--

Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska
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Beck Island
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Wed -- 05:30 AM AKST     10.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:25 AM AKST     6.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:54 PM AKST     10.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:57 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.645.97.99.510.410.59.98.97.86.86.36.47.18.39.610.510.910.49.37.864.43.3

Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:24 AM AKST     9.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM AKST     6.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:48 PM AKST     9.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:58 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:32 PM AKST     2.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.25.97.48.69.39.28.77.97.16.56.26.57.288.99.59.69.28.16.65.13.83

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.