Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kake, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:50PM Sunday September 24, 2017 6:33 PM AKDT (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 321 Pm Akdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less late.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Mon night..Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kake, AK
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location: 56.82, -133.78     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 242308
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
308 pm akdt Sun sep 24 2017

Short term Tonight through Tuesday... As of 1500 this afternoon,
current WV satellite imagery shows a shortwave lifting across the
northern gulf and northern portions of the SE alaskan panhandle,
with a ridge of high pressure currently positioned over western
canada. This shortwave developed from a parent trough that is currently
positioned over the aleutian islands of mainland alaska. In
addition, WV imagery continues to show a very moist subtropical
jet advecting moisture with the flow between the ridge and the
deeper trough over the western gulf, which will impact our weather
for the early half of the work week. Current precipitable water
analysis even shows anomalously high pw values with this stream of
moisture.

As this shortwave continues to exit the area tonight, we should expect
pops to diminish during the overnight hours. The ridge will then
begin to build back in over the eastern gulf early tomorrow and
possibly help in decreasing cloud cover, mainly across northern
portions of the panhandle. This should aid with fog development
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning due to relatively stable
conditions and a very moist ground. The ridge will be weak and
should quickly propagate east before an additional shortwave
begins to lift out of the southern gulf and across our area during
the Tuesday timeframe. As mentioned previously, a subtropical jet
is assisting with bringing additional moisture to the area, so
this new system on Tuesday will contain subtropical
characteristics. This means that additional precipitation, a much
higher snow level, and slightly above average temperatures with
not a large diurnal spread can be expected for most of the area.

Generally, adjustments to the forecast were made using a
combination of the ECMWF and the gfs, as there was generally good
agreement between the two.

Long term Big concern in the longer range is for a likely
atmospheric river event around mid to late week. Models are still
sorting out details on this but all indications are a significant
rain event is in store for at least part of the area. GFS and
ecmwf ensembles show precip water values 2-3+ standard deviations
above average with maximum on Wed and thu. Ended up using 18z gfs
to start long range for tue, then went with mainly wpc for tue
night onward.

With details such as where main frontal band will hang up while
some low pressure waves move N along it, confidence in where
heaviest rain will occur is no more than average, but it appears
somewhere over the NW half of the area will be the wettest during
midweek. Models hint that far SE may even dry out for a bit as
waves moving along the front push precip band back to the n
around Wed night and thu. Would expect significant rises on rivers
and streams where heaviest precip occurs, but too early to tell if
any flooding may occur. Will also need to watch out for potential
mudslides with ground fairly saturated from rain events occurring
before the midweek period.

For latter part of the long range, models differ on how fast main
trof moves out of the area, which will affect how quickly precip
diminishes. Keeping near climo pops for much of the area for next
weekend attm.

Aviation Phone problems continue at yakutat. Conds low enough
to warrant nil taf. Very low CIGS vis many TAF sites. Transition
to drier and more stable atmosphere except at very low levels sfc.

Very difficult forecast problem Mon morning about whether low
stratus will be several hundred feet aloft for good visibility or
surface based resulting in dense fog. Tafs try to convey a little
of both.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz042-051>053.

Voveris rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 32 mi33 min S 11 G 13 54°F 1009.7 hPa (+0.3)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 60 mi71 min S 1.9 G 4.1
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 61 mi45 min Calm G 1.9

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK14 mi37 minE 410.00 mi56°F51°F84%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E6E7E7E7SE9SE10
G16
SE9--SE7--SE9SE9SE6--SE5SE8SE5SE5SE5SE7S6SE4E4
1 day agoE6--SE3E5E3E4E4E5E4E6E6E4E6--E6E7E7E8E7SE8SE12
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2 days agoCalmCalmE9SE7--SE7E6E9E7E7E5E5E4E5SE3SE7SE6SE9
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance Island, Keku Strait, Alaska (sub)
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Entrance Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:14 AM AKDT     13.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM AKDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:50 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:13 PM AKDT     14.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 PM AKDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
36.39.812.513.713.311.48.65.53.122.54.57.610.813.314.514.112.29.25.82.91.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Hamilton Bay, Kupreanof Island, Keku Strait, Alaska
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Hamilton Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:55 AM AKDT     12.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:46 AM AKDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:51 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:54 PM AKDT     13.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:17 PM AKDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
47.210.112.212.9129.874.22.423.15.48.311.113.113.712.810.57.54.31.90.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.