Sunrise 4:39 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 4:58 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 350 Am Akdt Thu May 9 2024
.small craft advisory through tonight - .
Today - SE wind 25 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.Tonight - SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain.Fri - SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Fri night - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 082319 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 319 PM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

SHORT TERM
/Through Thursday night/ Active weather across the panhandle overnight and today. Gusty winds were observed over a wide area as a front moved through last night and post frontal southerlies are still kicking up gusty winds for the northern inner channels this afternoon. These winds should diminish through the evening hours. In addition there was some rainfall with anywhere from half an inch to 1.5 inches overnight in most areas of the panhandle.

Focus in the short range now shifts to the next system that will be coming in late tonight and lingering through Thursday. The main change with this system is that the track of it is now farther east then what was previously depicted (Low center is aimed more at Yakutat now). Heaviest rainfall is now aimed mostly E of Yakutat with Cape Fairweather and the northern inner channels under the gun. This system is still looking rather wet with a moderate atmospheric river embedded in it. It also is moving east rather quickly so that will limit rainfall amounts received.
Probabilities of precip are favoring totals around 1 to 2 inches for many areas of the north with some isolated areas of 3 inches in low elevation areas. These are still record or near record daily amounts for this time of year. Area rivers are expected to show rises but will remain in there banks as they are still somewhat low from last month's dry spell and snow levels are down to 3000 ft across the north right now.

Likewise the winds have also shifted east with more of the inner channels (from Sumner Strait northward) now expected to see breezy to windy conditions on Thursday. Gusts to 40 or 45 mph are likely in some northern and central inner channel locations Thursday before the winds start to slacken by late Thu night as the system moves east and falls apart.

LONG TERM
The start of the long term will remain wet as the remnants of the heavy rain from Thursday will continue to impact the panhandle before exiting. High pressure will briefly move through the gulf bringing an end to rain for most locations. With the rain moving out, we will see some drying across the area although there is the chance for some isolated showers during the day on Saturday. Temperatures during this time look to be the warmest on Saturday as we see the least amount of clouds over the area during this time. Clouds and chances of rain start to increase across the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday as the area of high pressure that transited through the area exits the region and another low starts to move in from the west. This system will bring more increased winds and rain to the panhandle just in time for the start of next week. As we head into the Monday and Tuesday, the wet weather looks to remain around the area allowing for a continued unsettled pattern. With the unsettled and active weather, temperatures look to remain cooler than normal for the mid to long range.

AVIATION
Conditions deteriorate once more through the evening overnight time frame as a strong system moves into the panhandle, with widespread IFR conditions expected for much of the panhandle especially the northern half. LLWS is anticipated, alongside strong winds and heavy rain near the surface. Conditions will begin improving by late Thursday, with clearing skies through the latter half of Friday.

MARINE
Significant changes for winds for Thursday for the inner channels from Sumner Strait northward. The track of the incoming system has now shifted farther E then previously depicted which is bringing higher winds of 25 to 30 kt southerlies for many inner channel areas. Winds after diminishing this evening from todays winds, will pick up again late tonight with the highest winds expected during the day Thursday. Expect a diminishing trend into Thursday night as the system moves east and weakens. The Gulf waters have some changes as well with the highest winds (up to min gale) and seas (up to 14 ft) on Thursday now east of 140W.
Also like the inner channels, expect a diminishing trend into Thursday night as the system moves east.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ318.
Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for AKZ323.
Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ325.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-662>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-651- 652-661-671-672.

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