Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:46PM Friday June 22, 2018 3:14 AM AKDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 1:23AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 312 Pm Akdt Thu Jun 21 2018
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas subsiding to 4 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220055
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
455 pm akdt Thu jun 21 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The long-lived cold upper level low is still lurking in the
eastern bering sea today where it has resided for nearly a week.

The upper level ridge that was nosing into the interior of the
state from the yukon yesterday is a little farther north over the
brooks range as the short wave in the northern gulf pushes into
it. This is keeping the upper level south to southeast flow over
mainland southern alaska again today.

At the surface there is the main low between bethel and norton
sound with a trough extending out of it across the interior of
the state. This low can be see in the radar data out of bethel
from early this afternoon.

Model discussion
While models continue to be fine on the synoptic scale, the
smaller features are still a bit elusive. In particular, the
movement of the short waves over southcentral alaska are not
picked up overly well, even on the higher resolution models, much
more than 6 to 12 hours in advance.

Aviation
Panc... OverallVFR conditions are expected to persist through
Friday. However, there is a chance for a brief MVFR ceiling
overnight into Friday morning as some rain moves through the area.

Some gusty southeast winds will kick in this evening but should
diminish after midnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level short-wave trough over the northern gulf will
lift northward across southcentral alaska tonight through Friday
morning, with showers spreading northward and becoming more
numerous. Strong low level southeast flow will initially limit
precip in the lee of the kenai and chugach mountains, though this
flow will rapidly weaken overnight as the short-wave moves
overhead. The best chance for steadier showers in anchorage and
the matanuska valley looks to be Friday morning as flow shifts to
southerly right behind the upper wave, as weak cyclonic flow
persists aloft.

Conditions will dry out a little bit Friday afternoon in the wake
of the upper wave, with just some scattered convection focused
mainly along the mountains. Saturday will be direr and sunnier as
a weak ridge builds overhead. There will still be enough
instability to produce a few afternoon evening showers, especially
along interior mountains. Sunday doesn't look to bad either,
though the thermal trough will begin to strengthen across inland
portions of southcentral, likely leading to an increase in
afternoon evening showers.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The main driver of the weather over southwest alaska is the weak
low pressure over the southwest mainland to the weak low over the
eastern bering sea. The upper low is anchored over the eastern
bering sea keeping the upper level flow out of the southeast
across the region. The upper level and surface low will move to
the saint matthew island area by Friday morning. This will shift
the flow to southwest across the region by Friday evening bringing
a more showery weather regime Friday. The cool moist onshore
southwest flow into the southwest mainland is not very conducive
to increasing the instability. The CAPE becomes slightly elevated
Friday evening along the kuskokwim mountains, however, the chances
for thunderstorms remains minimal and we will stick with isolated
in the forecast for the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The surface and upper low over the eastern bering sea will drift
north over saint matthew island Friday then slowly drift west to
the dateline by late Saturday. The presence of this low will help
to keep the eastern bering sea more mixed, thus fog (typically
associated with the bering sea high), will be less extensive over
the bering sea through Saturday. A north pacific low is moving
toward the western aleutians and will be over the shemya to adak
region of the aleutians by Saturday afternoon as a weak 996 to 998
mb low and trough. As the low approaches the western aleutians
Saturday morning, pre-frontal wind may reach gale force briefly.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Sunday night with the deterministic
models and ensemble runs in better agreement than 24 hours ago
with the overall synoptic pattern, especially through late
Tuesday. At the upper levels, a 552dm shortwave low will slide
underneath the ridge over eastern alaska as it comes onshore over
the alaska peninsula. Farther west, two shortwaves along the
aleutians will undercut and phase with the the longwave trough,
keeping persistent cyclonic flow going over the bering. In
between the two, an upper-level ridge tries to build over the
northern gulf. However, the ridge quickly shifts east as the
shortwaves rounding the base of the main trough eject along the
akpen and into southwestern alaska. The biggest question is
placement of the trough over the bering after Wednesday and the
timing of these shortwaves moving toward the alaska mainland.

This all translates to a surface low along the alaska panhandle
Sunday evening with a ridge over the northern gulf. Another
surface low in the southern bering will push an occluded front
over the eastern aleutians through late Monday with a secondary
low developing near kodiak island brining rain along the akpen.

Over southern and southwest ak, afternoon and evening showers will
fire up Sunday through Tuesday along a thermal trough draped
across the interior.

The low moves into the northern gulf for Wednesday, spreading rain
along southern coast with scattered showers continuing for the
interior. It is at this point that the models begin to diverge.

The GFS is still the more progressive solution, pushing the
upper-level trough axis closer to southwest alaska and building a
ridge over the western aleutians. The ec and canadian favor a
continuation of the broad low over the bering and the development
of a stronger, second surface low following the track of the
previous for Wednesday night into Thursday. As of right now, and
given the current synoptic pattern, the ec canadian is preferred
over the gfs. Either way, next week looks to remain quite
unsettled from the eastern aleutians to the northern gulf.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Sa
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 29 mi44 min S 9.9 G 12 46°F 1016.6 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 70 mi84 min WSW 18 G 19 48°F 49°F3 ft1015.3 hPa (+1.8)43°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 45°F 48°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
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Fri -- 03:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 AM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:18 AM AKDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM AKDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:41 PM AKDT     7.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.14.63.22.11.51.62.13.24.35.25.65.54.942.921.61.82.745.66.97.77.8

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:24 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:08 AM AKDT     2.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:44 AM AKDT     8.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:07 PM AKDT     11.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.57.75.63.72.522.43.65.36.97.98.17.66.54.93.42.52.22.94.56.78.910.511.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.