Tuesday, March26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday March 26, 2019 2:18 AM AKDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 353 Pm Akdt Mon Mar 25 2019
.small craft advisory Tuesday night...
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed and Wed night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu through Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260141
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
541 pm akdt Mon mar 25 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper-level wind pattern is showing another high-amplitude
wave over alaska. A skinny ridge has formed over the region. This
setup is allowing high clouds over portions of southcentral and is
steering strong bering sea lows from south to north toward the
arctic. The net effect has been and is above- normal temperatures
for the mainland and continued unsettled weather for southwest and
the aleutian chain.

Storm to hurricane force winds over the southern bering began the
morning, but as the low moved north by nearly 10-degrees latitude
in 12 hours, winds have been subsiding and a high wind warning
was allowed to expire early this morning over the central
aleutians. Gusty winds continued there, and were also notable on
the wrap- around north flow moving through the western chain.

Rain and snow continued for the kuskokwim delta, especially in the
north, where hooper bay and coastal points south to kipnuk trudged
through the morning under ifr conditions. Inland areas were milder
and wetter. Gusty conditions were an added bonus.

Concern for minor rises in coastal areas of the northern kuskokwim
bay have the attention of forecast team. There are too many
unknowns with shorefast ice, few tide gauges, and minimal
reports.

Model discussion
Pressure and moisture fields initialized well in all the main
models this morning. There were no significant differences outside
of normal model biases, though the ECMWF did see to be slightly
slower with the southerly surge of warmth into southwest alaska
early this week.

Gfs is a wetter solution in the mid-range, while the NAM is drier
solution in this timeframe. Forecaster choice leaned toward a gfs
preference to keep some precipitation in the outcome into the
week.

The forecast challenges for the week will be considering sky
cover versus temperature versus increasing length of daylight
hours, all with respect to fog formation over the mainland.

For southwest, especially inland areas, a challenge will be to
determine how much the developing gulf of alaska ridge eats away
at precipitation chances while bering sea troughs attempt to plow
through the stability.

Aviation
Panc... VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only
unknown at this time is any potential for vicinity fog due to
recent snowmelt and potential for breaks in cloud cover. Turnagain
arm winds are not expected to play a role in the forecast going
forward.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A high amplitude upper ridge is building over southcentral, and
this will promote dry weather across the mainland. The position of
the upper ridge with southcentral along the western side will keep
quite a bit of high clouds over the area, so this will limit fog
and keep low temperatures above average. That said, some fog will
be possible overnight especially along and near cook inlet and
knik arm. Offshore winds will become a little gusty through
favored gaps this evening as a shortwave trough rounds the top of
the ridge, but these winds will not be strong and they will end
tomorrow afternoon.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) (tonight
through Wednesday afternoon)
the frontal boundary associated with the departing storm force low
in the bering continues to move eastward across southwest alaska.

Gusty southerly winds will continue along the northern kuskokwim
delta coast overnight allowing for the possibility of elevated
water levels around the hazen bay area northward.

Precipitation will gradually diminish this evening from west to
east. An upper level ridge positioned over the mainland weakens
this front significantly allowing for generally drier conditions
across southwest for Tuesday. A surface ridge over the eastern
bering will provide onshore flow along the bristol bay coast
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. With weak onshore flow and
ample moisture, areas of fog are likely along the southwest coast
Wednesday morning, especially around the bristol bay area.

Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave that develops over the
pribilofs Tuesday evening quickly moves northward over nunivak
island and hooper bay for Wednesday morning. This feature may
produce a period of gusty southerly winds and snow showers over
the northern kuskokwim delta coast Wednesday morning before
quickly lifting north.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
(tonight through Wednesday afternoon)
the storm force low that has brought unsettled conditions across
the bering sea over the last few days continues to exit the
bering to the north this afternoon. Storm force winds over the
northern bering will diminish to gales tonight. Behind the low, a
showery regime will move over the bering with widespread southwesterly
flow persisting through Tuesday. One feature to note is a weak
upper level shortwave that moves over the pribilofs Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. This will likely bring a few snow
showers to the pribilof islands, though no accumulation is
expected. By Wednesday afternoon, a warm front associated with a
kamchatka low moves over the western aleutians, brining another
round of warm southerly flow to the southern bering.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Gulf of alaska... Confidence is high that that high pressure will
be established over the gulf Thursday through Saturday.

Bering sea... The low track is expected to remain in the western
bering sea Thursday through Saturday. This should keep persistent
southerly winds over the majority of the bering sea with some gales
likely at times.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A dissipating short wave over southwest mainland alaska will bring
in a chance of precipitation late Thursday into Thursday night and
that will be the last shot of precipitation for southern mainland
alaska for the week. By Friday the overall pattern will become
much more settled over the region than it has been for awhile.

This is due to the upper level ridge building in strong over the
mainland part of alaska and then persisting into early next week
at least. The low track will be over the western bering sea
through the weekend and then some uncertainty increases as the low
track begins to edge eastward across the bering sea.

Southcentral and southwest mainland alaska will therefore be under
a warm core high pressure dome through the weekend. While this is
a common pattern for this time of year it will bring in above
normal temperatures for the region. The biggest question will be
whether fog and or low stratus develops in low lying areas
including cook inlet during the period. Should the fog or stratus
develop, it will keep the temperature spread less, but still
above normal. Should clear skies dominate, the lows will still be
above normal due to the warmth aloft of the ridge. However the
daytime highs will then be well above normal with some areas
pushing into the 50s.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm 185 412. Gales 177-179 411 413 414.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ds
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ko
marine long term... Ez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 29 mi31 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 41°F1021.8 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 69 mi29 min W 12 G 14 42°F 41°F2 ft1021.1 hPa (-0.6)39°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi37 min SSW 1 G 1.9 39°F 41°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
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Tue -- 03:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM AKDT     8.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:44 PM AKDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM AKDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.73.95.578.18.586.85.23.31.70.70.61.12.13.44.75.55.85.65.14.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Three Saints Bay, Alaska
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Three Saints Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:47 AM AKDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:41 PM AKDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 PM AKDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.845.67.28.38.586.85.13.21.70.70.61.12.23.64.85.75.95.75.14.33.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.