Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 10:32 PM Moonrise 4:49 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 100025 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 425 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Areas of low elevation rain/snow and higher elevation snow continues this afternoon as the second in a series of upper-level waves and surface troughs moves from north of Kodiak Island northeast over Southcentral Alaska. The more widespread precipitation over the Kenai Peninsula this morning has become more scattered and showery in nature, with snow from Seward to Kenai this morning beginning to wind down as temperatures warm to near 40 and the precipitation transitions to rain. Snow showers have also changed to rain showers across the southern Susitna Valley this afternoon with the warming temperatures. Elsewhere, the precipitation is in the form of rain across Prince William Sound; however, snow continues to fall at higher elevations such as Thompson Pass where it remains cold enough for the snow to accumulate on road surfaces.

As the second, weaker trough lifts north this afternoon/evening, the southeasterly flow aloft will shift south and southwest by tonight. This shift will reinforce the colder air already in place aloft, with 850mb (~4,500ft MSL) temperatures falling another 2 degrees from -5C to -7C. As the flow shifts to the southwest, the precipitation over Cook Inlet will swing back toward Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. Like yesterday, the challenge will be how cold surface temperatures get and how intense the precipitation to allow snow to reach the surface.
There is high confidence that snow will return to the hillsides of Anchorage and Eagle River this evening, but lower confidence for places like the Anchorage Bowl and from Palmer to Talkeetna.
The precipitation will come to an end from west to east beginning late tonight as the trough departs and a weak, transient ridge works over the region in advance of the next system. Southerly winds will again increase this evening as the trough lifts north.
These winds should diminish in intensity overnight.

This ridge will yield drier and perhaps even a bit sunnier conditions for at least the first half of Friday for some. By Friday afternoon, a stronger low moving up along the AKPen will extend its front into the Gulf as strong southeasterly flow begins to pick up out ahead of this feature. Gusty south to southeast winds will spread from Kodiak Island back into the remainder of Southcentral through Saturday as the front slowly lifts north and the parent low shifts into the western Gulf.
Steady low elevation rain and mountain snow will primarily be focused along the coast and across Prince William Sound, while strong cross-barrier flow keeps most of the inland portions of Southcentral mostly dry. Temperatures will remain cool, but will begin to rebound closer to seasonal norms in the low 50s over interior valleys by Saturday afternoon and perhaps a few mid 50s for Sunday. The front and its parent low slide east on Sunday, with only a few showers lingering along the coast.

-TM

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening polar low south of the Aleutians continues to move east towards the Gulf of Alaska through tonight, providing some showery activity along the southern Alaska Peninsula coast.
Ridging over Southwest will allow for calmer conditions across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.

The bigger area of concern is the larger low tracking across the western Aleutians. Widespread precipitation is likely as the low and extending occluded front move eastward through Friday afternoon. Warm air along the front will result in many locations going above freezing, making most of the precipitation along the Aleutians rain. Gale force winds will persist into Friday morning, with localized areas along the Aleutians like Cold Bay getting wind gusts up to 45 mph. The low will reach Southwest by Friday morning, producing widespread showers across the area through Sunday morning and small craft winds along the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coastline through Friday evening.

A new low forms south of Shemya Saturday morning, moving eastward along the south side of the Aleutians through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation type could be more of a rain/snow mix as cooler air is brought in by the low. Winds will not be as significant of an issue as the previous low, with winds only reaching small craft force throughout its duration.

-BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A high amplitude, positively tilted trough extends from the Arctic across Western Alaska into the North Pacific South of the Aleutians. This trough weakens and become more shallow through the forecast period. This allows a number of energetic shortwaves to gain energy from the North Pacific and pass through the nearly zonal flow for Thursday. New features from Siberia brings some undefined changes after Wednesday. Model agreement is reasonable during the first half, but changes to more uncertain conditions through midweek, especially in the Western half of the forecast area.

The extended forecast opens somewhat quietly as Gulf low move the active weather into Southeast Alaska. Locally heavy rain over Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin dissipates Tuesday. A broad surface ridge over the Bering begins to flatten through Tuesday. Showery precipitation is expected to spread over the Aleutians, Bering and Alaska Peninsula ahead of the ridge. In the far West, the first Siberian low brings gusty winds and precipitation starting as snow, but quickly changing to rain across the Aleutians and Bering. This low and front pushes some mixed precipitation into Western Alaska, trailing over the Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before diminishing over the AKPEN Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall moves inland over the West as the low moves into the Lower Yukon Valley through Thursday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...Predominantly MVFR ceilings and visibilities with intermittent periods of IFR ceilings are expected this afternoon and evening as another round of mixed rain/snow showers moves over the terminal. Light northerly winds early this afternoon will shift back to the southwest around 4pm, then to the southeast by 6pm this evening. Winds may gust to between 25 and 35 mph through the overnight hours before diminishing early morning Friday. Any rain/snow showers should also come to an end by late Thursday night, with conditions improving to VRF, as the precipitation moves east over the higher terrain.

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Jap Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:16 AM AKDT     10.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM AKDT     -1.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM AKDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:57 PM AKDT     2.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jap Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:42 AM AKDT     14.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:55 AM AKDT     -2.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM AKDT     9.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:36 PM AKDT     3.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska, Tide feet

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