Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobart Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:24AMSunset 3:52PM Thursday January 18, 2018 4:43 AM AKST (13:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 721 Pm Akst Wed Jan 17 2018
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobart Bay, AK
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location: 57.22, -133.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 172350
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
250 pm akst Wed jan 17 2018

Short term Sunny skies shine high above northern communities
while a few bands of light rain have marched northward into the
far southern panhandle. Meanwhile, large portions of the south-
central panhandle have little complaints about milky white high
cirrus clouds thickening through the afternoon. The band of light
rain will weaken as it moves northward and perhaps may yield the
possibility of light snow mixed in above angoon.

The main gale force low well to the south will track northward to
around haida gwaii by Friday and weaken as it does so. Thus,
persistent and strong northeast gales over the southeast gulf will
marginally weaken in time during the next couple of days. We must
mention that there is no perfect consensus with the speed and
eventual evolution of the low. The ECMWF pushes north quite a bit
faster and perhaps threatens our dry forecast. This will be
watched. To hedge, we have added a slight chance of rain and or
rain snow across the far south on Friday.

The main forecasting issue this afternoon and this evening
continues to be a very decent critical level headed north across
the central panhandle and perhaps inciting some gusty winds in the
vicinity of downtown juneau. At most, we are now looking at gusts
to 40 mph persisting in the evening. But confidence is not great.

And while increasing, the breezes have not been impressive.

Across the south, winds have been gusty in areas that
traditionally are more exposed to outflow winds like klawock,
sumner strait, and metlakatla. In metlakatla's case, the period
through Thursday night may be breezy throughout. As the low pulls
north, it will weaken and gradients relax across the panhandle
Friday, leading to lighter winds region-wide with the exception
of skagway and potentially lynn canal where north winds will
continue.

Forecast confidence is good through Thursday with falling
confidence particularly for the southern half on Friday. But no
significant impacts are expected.

Long term Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday
models coming into better agreement on the larger scale flow
pattern over the high latitudes. Upper ridge will build over the
bering sea fri-sun. This will cause an upper trof to dig S into
the W gulf during this time. Still some model differences on what
the upper trof does after sun, with main issue whether it shifts e
or more to the sw. Still some model differences on what
interactions the upper trof will have with southern stream systems
moving E across the npac. This interaction will be the big driver
of weather for early to middle of next week over the area.

Still looking like a cool down is in store for the area during the
first half of the long range, but the stream interaction issue for
latter half of the period will determine how much area might warm
back up. If more southern stream energy is lifted N into the area,
it would allow for a stronger warm up. The initial cool down will
likely take temps to near or slightly below normal. The cool down
should be accompanied by increasing outflow winds as well, but
given lack of a strong sfc high to the N of the area, probably
will not see more than gales with the outflow.

Looking like a generally drier period for the first half of the
long range, although this will depend on where a low near haida
gwaii moves during this time. Models have been all over the place
on it, from kicking it E toward SW bc or lifting remnant of system
more to the N and NW as another system tries to undercut it. For
now, staying with drier idea until a better signal on what that
low will do shows up. Later on, upper trof over the gulf will
likely send some showers across the gulf, and southern stream
systems will have their own precip field moving across the npac.

If upper trof shifts e, area will see increasing threat for
showers (with mostly snow showers as airmass would be fairly
cool in this scenario). If trof stays further w, this would likely
allow southern stream system to move NE into the area, with a more
stratiform precip shield. Ptype would be tricky as warmer air
would likely move in as well, although the N half could stay cold
enough for snow depending on track of any sfc low that moves into
the E gulf. Overall, do have an increasing threat for precip from
sun onward as both scenarios would give some precip to the area.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 pm akst this evening for akz025.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-031-033-035-036-042-043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-051>053.

Jwa rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 8 mi44 min N 9.9 G 9.9 39°F 989.3 hPa (+0.0)
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 87 mi34 min NNW 16 G 16 34°F 989.8 hPa
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 89 mi50 min WSW 1 G 2.9 32°F 991 hPa

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK29 mi48 minVar 310.00 miLight Rain38°F33°F83%991.7 hPa

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6NE7NE8NE10
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------3Calm--CalmSE335--5--5NE9
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1 day agoSE15
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2 days agoE7CalmNE3E5CalmE3--NE6--3NE10--NE9
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G19
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Tide / Current Tables for Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Frederick Sound, Alaska
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Cleveland Passage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM AKST     14.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 AM AKST     3.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:40 PM AKST     16.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:55 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM AKST     -1.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.813.214.213.611.78.85.93.83.24.47.210.613.715.71614.511.47.33.20.1-1.3-0.61.95.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hobart Bay, Stephens Passage, Alaska
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Hobart Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:01 AM AKST     14.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 AM AKST     2.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:36 PM AKST     16.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:54 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:12 PM AKST     -1.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.113.614.613.811.68.55.53.32.94.37.310.813.915.81614.511.47.33.1-0.1-1.6-11.75.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.