Wednesday, January17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:47AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:30 PM AKST (01:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 5:50PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 316 Pm Akst Wed Jan 17 2018
Tonight..E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu..NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu night..NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sat through Mon..NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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location: 57.44, -177.17     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171345
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
445 am akst Wed jan 17 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The large low that churned across the gulf of alaska yesterday has
been steadily weakening and the center of the storm is basically
directly overhead kodiak island as of this writing. The main
weather front has weakened and pushed into interior ak, leaving
behind numerous residual bands of rain showers that are impacting
southcentral alaska (primarily the coastlines). Southwest alaska
is generally on the cold side of the storm, and is seeing periods
of wet snow falling along and west of a line from king salmon to
sleetmute. East of this line, precipitation is more intermittent
and is warm enough to fall as rain or patchy light freezing rain.

Meanwhile, way out west, a front has pushed through the western
aleutians with rain and gale-force winds. The associated 981 mb low
pressure system is approaching shemya island, and this whole
system will be slowing down and weakening over the next 12-24
hours as high pressure begins to build in the bering sea.

Model discussion
All models are in good agreement on the evolution of the major
features over the next few days. As a result, forecast confidence
is above average. A pattern change is on the horizon for all of
southern alaska, transitioning to a cold and dry airmass for all
mainland locations.

Panc...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist
throughout the period. Wind shear should increase by late this
morning as southeast winds aloft approach the area and continue
through early evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The low is centered over kodiak island this morning with a slow
moving secondary front along the north gulf coast and stretching
into northern cook inlet. This continues to bring rain to the
coast and scattered rain showers inland. A few pockets of freezing
rain are possible this morning across southcentral alaska in
areas where the temperature dropped just below freezing, but the
precipitation type is rain for the vast majority of the area as
temperatures have largely remained above freezing.

The rain should taper off today as the system weakens but
temperatures will remain warm over most of the area today before a
marked cooling begins tomorrow.

Patchy fog is likely to develop this morning in the copper river
basin as that area has largely cleared out this morning. The fog
will likely be in-and-out throughout most of the day for lower
elevations and some areas of low stratus may persist into the day

The trend towards colder and drier conditions is still on track to
begin tomorrow as high pressure builds across the interior of the
state. This will shift winds to a northerly direction with outflow
winds developing along the north gulf coast tomorrow and
increasing Friday. Kodiak is the outlier for the region as the
remnants of the low currently there will take a little longer to
clear out continuing the threat for some rain and snow showers
there through Thursday before becoming all snow showers Thursday

Short term forecast southwest alaska
The low near kodiak will continue to bring light snow to
southwest alaska as it, and the snow, slowly diminishes into
Thursday. By Friday, most of the precip will be gone and cold
northerly flow will take its place bringing low temps below 0 f
Friday night. High pressure building in over the northern bering
will help to keep the cold air and northerly winds coming.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
The low near the western aleutians will slowly track east as it
swings its front through the aleutians. The front will make it to
the eastern aleutians Thursday morning where it will stall and
fall apart. Behind this system, another system will move towards
the western aleutians from the north pacific with its front making
it to the islands Friday night. Both of these systems are warm
enough to bring some rain to mix in with the snow, with the second
system being even warmer than the first.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
As advertised in the past couple of long term forecast
discussions, a major pattern shift is expected over most of
mainland alaska this weekend and into next week. The upper level
pattern, which has been leading to warm and wet conditions over
southcentral, will migrate east this weekend with a high amplitude
upper level ridge setting up over the central bering and an upper
level trough developing over central eastern alaska. This will
lead to strong northerly flow through the bering straight and over
sw alaska which will advect in bitterly cold air down from the
arctic. The source of this cold air is currently bottled up over
northeastern russia where temperatures in the yakutia region this
week were recorded as low as -80 f.

Models all show this cold airmass being pulled south into western
alaska by the end of the weekend, though significantly modified
by the time it reaches the region. Long range ensemble guidance
shows marginal odds of minimum temperatures across western and
interior portions of alaska being in the bottom 15th percentile of
climatology, or in layman's terms, temperatures are likely to be
well below normal next week, though not quite to record levels.

Temperatures could drop into the -30's to -40's along interior
sections of SW alaska, with sub zero temperatures reaching the
bristol bay coast. This will be the coldest air of the season so
far and may be a shock to residents who have been getting used to
the near record warmth this winter. Luckily for residents of
southcentral, the coldest air will be blocked by the alaska range,
though temperatures will fall back to normal or slightly below
normal values by early next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 125 130 155 178
heavy freezing spray warning 180 181 185
synopsis and model discussion... Amd
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dwk
long term... Kvp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46035 - BERING SEA 310 NM North of Adak, AK 42 mi101 min 4 ft1005.8 hPa (-1.3)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.