Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Friday June 23, 2017 2:22 AM AKDT (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 348 Pm Akdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sat night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon through Tue..SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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location: 57.44, -177.17     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230223
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
400 pm akdt Thu jun 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level high draped northeast-to-southwest over
southern alaska, centered along the alaska-canadian border between
eagle and northway. The ridge is quite "dirty" with plenty of
clouds and isolated to scattered showers, mainly over the higher
terrain. There is an upper low over the panhandle that is
weakening and moving east. There is an upper low with an
associated surface low over the southwest gulf, that is moving
slowly towards the northeast. A fairly strong low is situated over
the western aleutians, with a leading front over the central
aleutians. There is an upper level trough just off the coast of
the kuskokwim delta area, which is weakening and moving slowly

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (Sunday afternoon). Surface pressure
fields are in very good agreement, therefore forecast confidence
for the marine areas is above normal. For the mainland, the
models struggle a bit with subtle moisture fields and convection,
which are a big part of the forecast. Therefore the forecast
confidence for the land areas is near to a little below normal.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will generally persist.

The atmosphere is moist enough that there is some risk of MVFR
conditions, especially in the morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A slow warming and drying trend is underway across southcentral.

Friday looks to be much the same as today, with mostly cloudy
skies, though with more Sun breaks, especially later in the day.

An occasional shower or two can't be ruled out especially in the
mountains. The further north and east you go, the more sunshine
and the better the chance of some isolated thunderstorms,
particularly across the copper river basin and the talkeetna
mountains Friday afternoon.

Building ridging from the west into the area Saturday will move
much of the cloud cover eastward with time, so anchorage and
points west should break out to partly cloudy skies by Saturday
evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon from the talkeetna mountains east through much of the
copper river basin.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Upper ridging over the alaska range is interacting with an upper
trough moving east over the y-k delta coast. This is forming a
favorable region of stretching deformation aloft. An instability
axis has formed this afternoon from the kilbuck mountains to the
higher mountains of the alaska range. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue into the evening before becoming more organized as a
band of showers along the deformation zone Friday. This will
favor the lower kuskokwim valley and the interior mountains with
rather widespread rain showers. Meanwhile, weak flow around the
alaska peninsula, the coast of bristol bay and the kuskokwim delta
will keep low stratus and fog in place tonight and Friday

Friday, the upper trough will weaken, but the instability axis
will keep thunderstorm threats across the interior while more
stable marine air keeps the coasts dry but prone to sea stratus.

Saturday shortwave ridging will begin to build with showers
shifting east toward the alaska range before falling apart
Saturday night. Sunday will continue to warm as the ridge aloft

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A closed upper low and associated weak gale force occluded front
over the western and central aleutians will slowly shift east
before another upper trough merges with it. This will spread
frontal precipitation to the remainder of the bering sea Saturday
and Saturday night. The main surface low will stall over the
western bering sea Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An amplifying longwave pattern looks to bring and end to the period
of nice weather over much of southern alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, the upper level trough over the bering sea will dig
southward and begin tapping into some moist subtropical air while
advecting that air northward into the gulf of alaska. This looks to
set up a rather wet period for much of southern alaska Tuesday
through Friday of next week as a series of systems move into the
gulf of alaska and north toward the gulf coast. There is pretty
remarkable model agreement with this change in weather pattern so
confidence continues to rise. However, it is to be expected that
there could be some breaks in the rain and clouds but overall, wet
and cloudy will be the theme for much of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 175 176 177.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Mmc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46035 - BERING SEA 310 NM North of Adak, AK 42 mi93 min SE 16 G 18 46°F 46°F8 ft1020.7 hPa (-0.7)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.