Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:20 AM AKDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 1:53PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 325 Pm Akdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Tonight..E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri..E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Fri night..E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
Sat through Mon..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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location: 57.44, -177.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230019
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
419 pm akdt Wed mar 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
An upper trough which has been stationary over southcentral has
developed into a closed low and is now beginning to sink southward
as a short-wave over northern alaska drops into the back side of
the long-wave trough. With continued low level offshore flow and
the lack of any organized system over the gulf, the only impact of
the upper low is a few clouds and isolated snow showers over the
mountains of eastern prince william sound on up into the copper
river basin. Otherwise, dry and cool conditions with locally gusty
winds (primarily along the coast) continue across southcentral and
all the way west to the eastern half of the bering sea under the
influence of the blocking high.

Conditions out west along the aleutians are quite benign as well
with a weak low passing to the west across the far western bering
sea. Meanwhile, a very large deep low over the northwest pacific
is slowly tracking toward the aleutians. This will be the first
major storm system to affect the region in quite some time and
will be the lead-in to what will become a significant pattern
change for all of alaska.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement over the next couple days and
forecast confidence is high.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weakening low pressure center in the gulf will send more clouds
and isolated snow showers across eastern prince william sound
tonight into thu. Otherwise sunny and slowly warming days with
clear and cold nights will continue through fri. Locally gusty
north winds through channeled terrain are also expected during the
period.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Northerly flow and generally sunny skies will continue over the
region into late in the work week as a ridge of high pressure
remains over the eastern bering. One exception to this will be
over the kuskokwim valley which will see a slight increase in
cloudcover and a chance of flurries as a shortwave descending
from the western interior clips the area on Thursday. This feature
is both drier and weaker than initially expected, so any flurries
that do develop should be brief. Northerly flow will then increase
on Saturday as a weakening gale force front spreads into the
bering, but with otherwise sunny and dry weather.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Most of the bering sea will see one more day of benign weather on
Thursday in advance of the next frontal system that will move into
the western bering beginning late Thursday. This system will
spread gale force winds and rain throughout much of the bering and
aleutians to the west of the pribilof islands for Friday and
Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Northwest upper level flow and ridging over the bering will remain
dominant as the extended period forecast begins Friday evening.

At the same time a sprawling low over the north pacific extending
into the southwest bering sea will be slowly moving east. This
means the sensible weather pattern of mostly dry and offshore flow
over southern alaska will still be dominant before larger changes
begin to develop Sunday and into next week. After weeks of
dominant ridging over the bering sea, this feature will begin to
weaken and retrograde northwest, allowing for a pattern change as
the arctic trough over southern alaska merges with a series of
weak north pacific lows. Right now, there is uncertainty of
exactly where the arctic trough stalls, but it is most likely that
the trough stalls near the alaska range with most of the
precipitation (rain and snow along the coast) remaining east of
the alaska range. By midweek and beyond, uncertainty grows with
the details, but it seems quite likely, based on the shifting
blocking high, that storminess will be on the increase as the npac
jet strengthens and amplifies.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray 121 126 127 129.

Gale 174 175 176 177 178
synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Ds
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Dek
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46035 - BERING SEA 310 NM North of Adak, AK 42 mi90 min ESE 14 G 16 34°F 37°F4 ft1016.1 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.