Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ugashik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 6:13PM Friday February 23, 2018 5:29 PM AKST (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:56AMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ugashik, AK
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location: 57.52, -156.07     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240204
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
504 pm akst Fri feb 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A progressive upper level wave pattern continues across the
southern tier of alaska. An east-west oriented trough over the
bering sea is digging eastward toward the southern alaska
mainland with the support of a zonal jet streak near the aleutian
chain. At the surface, an occluded front is elongating across the
northern bering and southwest alaska coast with a triple point and
trailing cold front headed eastward across the alaska peninsula
and into the western gulf. Snow is spreading north and east across
southwest alaska, with rain in the warm sector along portions of
the alaska peninsula and kodiak island. Gusty winds along portions
of the kuskokwim delta coast are producing blowing snow and low
visibilities - and a winter weather advisory remains in effect for
this area until 9 pm this evening.

Back behind the occluded and cold fronts a cold an unstable air
mass is leading to snow showers and gusty winds across the
southern bering sea and aleutian islands. The gld lightning system
even picked up on a few isolated strikes. The next storm system is
beginning to take shape over the northwest pacific as a short-wave
trough ejects out of asia.

Out ahead of this storm system most of southcentral is starting
out with a "bluebird" day, with just a few areas of low clouds
over interior valleys. Locally gusty offshore winds are quickly
diminishing as gradients slacken ahead of the approaching front
over southwest alaska.

Model discussion
Models remain in excellent agreement with large scale features
and show decent run-to-run consistency. Thus, forecast confidence
is high and only minor adjustments will be made to the existing
forecast.

Aviation
Panc... Another round of snow will arrive around 09z tonight, with
ceilings vis rapidly dropping. With a weaker overall system
compared to the last storm, expect snow to be lighter. However,
with a colder air mass in place this will lead to lower density
snow which will be prone to blowing around and reducing
visibilities as vehicles or planes move through it. Thus, still
expect a period of ifr conditions, most likely between 12z and
18z. Forecasts confidence drops significantly once snow ends, as
there could be a period of clearing or stratus and fog (with ifr
or lifr) could settle in behind the snow during the day Saturday.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper trough and developing frontal wave crossing the alaska
peninsula this afternoon will swing over kodiak island this
evening and then spin up to a closed low just to the east of the
barrens by around midnight. The surface low will rapidly deepen as
it continues east across the gulf late tonight through Saturday.

With the rapid cyclogenesis and strong cold air advection
following the pattern looks good for storm force west to north
westerly wind along the back side of the low and very strong
westerly outflow winds across kodiak island, shelikof strait and
the barrens late tonight through Saturday. Additionally, strong
northwesterly outflow winds will strengthen along the eastern side
of the kenai peninsula and western prince william sound Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

As the associated front lifts north into southcentral alaska
tonight through Saturday, it will bring another round of snow to
most areas with around 3 to 5 inches possible in the lowlands and
5 to 9 inches in mountains, with west to southwest facing slopes
favored for higher accumulations. In addition to the strong cold
air advection accompanying the front, another aspect of this
system very favorable for snow production is the deep dendritic
growth zone that the temperature and moisture profile support. An
environment profile like this will allow for very efficient snow
production, leading to higher than normal snowfall amounts for the
amount of liquid moisture available and a very light and fluffy
snow pack.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system currently tracking inland over the southwest
mainland will continue to bring snow and gusty winds to much of
the mainland through tonight, with some of the gustier areas
experiencing reduced visibilities due to blowing snow.

Temperatures will also continue to warm, but the majority of the
mainland should remain cold enough for the precipitation type to
remain as snow. Along the kuskokwim delta coast, gusty east winds
accompanied by moderate to heavy snowfall rates will persist into
this evening, leading to blowing snow and periods of decreased
visibility below one-half mile. Thus the winter weather advisory
remains in effect, though the timing was bumped up 3 hours as the
system is arriving a little sooner than originally expected.

Winds behind the front will switch around to the west and begin
to increase as cold air advects in from the north tonight. Gusts
are expected to be as high as 40-50 mph along and near the western
coast line from bristol bay up to the kuskokwim delta. These
gusty west winds will continue through much of the weekend and
allow some rough surf to develop along the coastlines Friday night
through Saturday night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The front over the eastern bering will finish pushing inland this
evening, leaving colder air and gusty westerly winds in its wake
over much of the bering. As seen in recent satellite imagery, a much
more unstable convective regime can be seen over the bering which
should keep any fog from forming over much of the area. Further
west, the next system will start pushing into the western and
central aleutians Saturday morning, and continue to spread north
and eastward through the weekend. This system will bring the next
round of stratiform precipitation and gusty winds to the area as
it progresses northeastward over the weekend.

Long term forecast (Monday through Friday) The active pattern
remains on tap through next week.

For the southern mainland and kodiak island we're still on track
for a low to traverse the mainland beginning Sunday night
supported by a large upper trough. This system remains
sufficiently cold to keep all precipitation of the frozen variety
except for kodiak island where rain should briefly mix in. A
triple point low forms along the north gulf coast Monday then
dives southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. A residual low remains in
the prince william sound area through Monday night. Coupled with
the supporting upper trough, this could result in the snowfall
staying over south central alaska through Monday night. The low
and associated trough that extends to the northwest will result in
a tight gradient and thus, gusty strong outflow wind out of the
chugach mountains ringing prince william sound Wednesday and
Thursday. The gradient relaxes Friday and conditions should settle
down over the southern mainland. Previously we were expecting
a shot of warmer advection into southwest alaska Thursday night
and Friday. The latest model solutions are backing away from the
warm advection intruding into southwest alaska at this point.

Over the bering sea, aleutians and alaska peninsula we start the
week with a large strong low over the eastern bering sea that
barrels into the mainland Sunday night. Cold air wraps around the
west quadrant of this low coupled with the tighter pressure
gradient, should result in strong gusty west and northwest wind
over the eastern bering sea and alaska peninsula Monday. A weak
flat ridge in the wake of this low will rapidly yield to the next
incoming storm entering the western bering sea late Monday. This
low rapidly traverses the bering sea before dissipating as it
approaches the bristol bay region Tuesday night. A large low is
then on tap to push into the western bering sea Wednesday.

Yesterday it appeared this low would push a front to the bering
sea coast and strong warm advection into southwest alaska. Todays
model runs have backed off on that solution opting for a more
westerly track that will have the front stall then dissipate over
the eastern bering sea Friday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 155. Marine... Storms 130 131 136
137 351 352. Gales 120 132 138 139 141 150 155 160 165 170-181
185 411-414. Heavy freezing spray 181.

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Jer
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Sa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 104 mi40 min S 12 G 14 32°F 39°F2 ft1015 hPa (-6.2)32°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

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Tide / Current Tables for Kanatak Lagoon, Portage Bay, Alaska
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Kanatak Lagoon
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Fri -- 01:07 AM AKST     2.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:26 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 AM AKST     11.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:56 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:37 PM AKST     1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM AKST     8.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.634.56.68.710.511.411.1108.36.34.32.61.61.52.545.97.58.48.47.66.5

Tide / Current Tables for Lees Cabins, Wide Bay, Alaska
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Lees Cabins
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Fri -- 12:48 AM AKST     2.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 AM AKST     11.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:33 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:57 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:18 PM AKST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM AKST     8.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.53.34.979.110.811.611.3108.263.82.21.41.62.74.46.27.88.68.57.76.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.