Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 10:48 PM Moonrise 12:44 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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PKZ750 Sitkinak To Castle Cape Out To 15 Nm- 209 Pm Akdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.Thu - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Sat - SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.Mon - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 160051 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 451 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday night)...

A sharp upper level ridge axis now extends from the Gulf into Southcentral, allowing for quite the pleasant and sunny afternoon for much of the region. Clear skies are in place under the ridge, with the exception of a few cumulus popping up over the Mat-Su and Copper Basin as the boundary layer deepens with daytime heating.
However, little if any shower activity is expected today due to warmer temperatures aloft that will prevent convective cloud cover from becoming more vertically developed.

Meanwhile, a weakening front associated with a system out in the Bering Sea is beginning to cross over the Alaska Range into Southcentral. Clouds and very light rain will increase first over Kodiak Island tonight, then into the Kenai Peninsula on Thursday.
Even though the ridge axis will shift closer to the ALCan border, it still looks like it's influence will prevent rain from getting all the way up into the Mat-Su and Anchorage areas, with the main front and upper trough shunting south into the Gulf by Thursday evening. Cloud cover will still be much higher on Thursday for all but the Copper Basin, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures for the western half of Southcentral for Thursday.

By Thursday night, the upper trough moving into the Gulf will begin to close off into a low, while an attendant surface low also moves east from Kodiak Island into open Gulf. Areas of light rain and high elevation snow will shut off as it does so during the day on Friday and as a weak shortwave ridge attempts to build back into the western parts of Southcentral behind the low. This should allow for clouds to break up somewhat, with slightly warmer temperatures also returning to start off the weekend. On Saturday, a more potent upper level low will slide from the Bering Sea into the western Gulf, sending another wave of steady rain back into Kodiak Island. Aside from Kodiak, all but perhaps the southern coast of the Kenai Peninsula should still stay dry through Saturday afternoon, but cloud cover will again increase throughout the day. Southerly gap winds through the typical spots will also pick up again as a coastal ridge develops ahead of the low entering the far western Gulf.

-AS

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds are expected to gradually die off tomorrow morning with most areas along Southwest getting calm south or southwest winds.
Rain and snow will gradually diminish through Thursday morning as the front pushes east.

A weak shortwave will bring a quick burst of precipitation along the Aleutians tonight and reaching the central Aleutians by tomorrow morning before weakening south of the Aleutians. A Kamchatka low will follow into the Bering Sea Thursday and the next front is expected to reach the eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs for Friday morning. Precipitation chances increase for Friday night through Saturday as the front reaches the Southwest Alaska. The position, speed, elongation, and tilt will be a factor with the extent of the precipitation. The direction of the wind field will also be affected. Therefore, confidence is still somewhat lower though as models keep shifting agreement, run to run.

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.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...

The long-term period begins with an upper-level trough situated over the Eastern Bering Sea and weak ridging over Southcentral and the Central/Western Aleutians. This upper-level pattern will be represented at the surface by a surface low in the Eastern Bering pushing a broad frontal boundary into Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. At this time, Southcentral will likely be under the influence of the ridge, this may manifest as more clear skies, however the chance for a mid-level stratus deck is possible. By Sunday morning however, the low is expected to track across the AKPen, entering the Western Gulf of Alaska, spreading a potentially heavy, but relatively brief, shot of rainfall across coastal locations of Prince William Sound as well as Kodiak Island. Model agreement up to this point in time is fair with some slight variations, but the overall themes and timing represented well throughout. By Sunday afternoon however model solutions diverge sharply, with some solutions lingering the low across the northern Gulf, and others more transient, shifting the low off to the eastern Gulf by late Sunday. Additionally, Sunday afternoon in the Bering has very little agreement with regards to timing, features, and persistence. Generally, a trough will build over the Bering into the early portion of next week, however at this time little more details on impacts at the surface, and overall timing/progression of this system are discernible.

-CL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period. Winds this afternoon are driven largely by up inlet flow resulting in a seabreeze into PANC. Sustained winds of 10 to 12 knots appears likely with winds eventually decreasing closer to midnight. Chance for winds out of Turnagain Arm to increase and move over the terminal by early Thursday afternoon.

Kanatak Lagoon
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Thu -- 04:21 AM AKDT     3.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM AKDT     9.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 PM AKDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     9.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kanatak Lagoon, Portage Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Lees Cabins
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Thu -- 04:02 AM AKDT     3.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM AKDT     9.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:44 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:26 PM AKDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     9.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lees Cabins, Wide Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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