Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:20AMSunset 11:45PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 9:31 AM AKDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 342 Am Akdt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Tonight..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Thu..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
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location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 271247
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
447 am akdt Tue jun 27 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low spinning across the central bering near
the pribilofs is the driving feature for much of the weather
across southern alaska this morning. East of the low, broad
southerly flow is driving wave after wave into southern alaska
from off the pacific. Each wave is bringing more moisture and
precipitation to the area. The next wave is approaching kodiak
island this morning with widespread 15-20 kt winds across the
coastal waters. Elsewhere, nearly all of the rest of southern
alaska remains under overcast skies.

Model discussion
The models are in good agreement through Wednesday night for much
of southern alaska. The primary point of disagreement is with
regards to the next low moving in the southwestern gulf late
Wednesday night. The NAM and ec are further north, but the nam
elongates the low, while all of the other models keep a deeper
closed low. The GFS and canadian are slightly further south and
because they are nearly identical with positioning and strength,
were the models of choice. Forecast confidence is high.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday morning. The
turnagain arm jet will also persist south of the airport with
variable strength through Wednesday morning. While the core of the
jet is not expected to reach the airport, there is potential,
particularly after 05z, for stronger associated gusts as the jet
bends closer to the airport. If the core does reach the airport,
gusts could exceed 30 knots, but the possibility also exists that
the winds never get into west anchorage. Scattered showers will
also be in the area through the morning, with increased
downsloping expected to reduce the rain chances through the day.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weather front will push into kodiak this morning, to the gulf
coast by midday, then inland this afternoon. This will bring
another round of rain and or showers to the area. The highest
rainfall amounts will be along the coast and coastal mountains.

Less precipitation will fall inland, with only some isolated
showers in the the copper river basin. The system will move north
of the area by late Wednesday night, with just some some showers
lingering along the coast by Wednesday afternoon. The next system
will move into the gulf Wednesday afternoon, reaching the gulf
coast Wednesday night. This next system will develop into a closed
upper low, and have a defined surface low as well. This will push
the flow aloft to more from the southeast rather than the south,
allowing inland areas to be a bit drier.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A front draped across mainland southwest alaska is slowly pushing
north bringing widespread rain to most of the area today. The
front will continue to weaken through the day as it pulls out of
the area it loses upper level support, leading to a brief break in
the widespread precipitation overnight. Another shortwave
rotating around the parent low in the bering sea comes ashore
Wednesday morning bringing more rain to the area, especially to
the kuskokwim river delta and the bethel area. Easterly low level
winds wrapping around the system will be funneled through terrain
gaps in the northern akpen, including kamishak bay across lake
iliamna, leading to gusty winds in those areas through Wednesday.

Multiple systems wrapping around a longwave upper level trough in
the bering will bring continued cool and wet conditions to the
area through at least the end of the week.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A broad low over the central bering sea, currently centered near
the pribilof islands, will slowly lift northwest through the
bering strait. Rain showers will impact most of the central and
eastern aleutians and pribilofs through Tuesday night. Cyclonic
flow and the associated winds will weaken as the surface low
fills. A weak low pressure system will form just south of the
western aleutians by Wednesday night and track to the east
bringing increased chances of precipitation to the central island
chain through the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Friday through the weekend remains in a progressive wet pattern
across the bering and the gulf of alaska as the jet stream along
50n ushers low pressure along a fairly strong jet streak. Multiple
short waves are expected to move inland through the weekend
bringing higher chances for rain. Winds will generally be under
small craft for area marines as the upper level systems move
quickly and lack surface organization. Operational models struggle
to handle the fast moving shortwaves in the extended forecast;
therefore only minor edits were made for the upcoming weekend
into early next week. Wpc data used update the current package is
a fairly even blend of the GFS and ECMWF including the ensembles.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 26 mi42 min NE 14 G 16 50°F 51°F3 ft1006.6 hPa49°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi44 min ESE 16 G 18 49°F 49°F1005.8 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi50 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 49°F 49°F1008 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Larsen Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:03 AM AKDT     15.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM AKDT     -4.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 PM AKDT     14.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.347.711.614.615.814.912.183.3-0.9-3.7-4.1-2.21.45.910.313.414.613.911.68.34.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mining Camp, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Mining Camp
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:40 AM AKDT     16.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM AKDT     -4.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM AKDT     14.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:17 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:55 PM AKDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.74.9912.915.51614.411.26.92.3-1.6-3.9-4-1.62.67.411.714.414.913.510.97.64.32

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.