Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:18 AM AKDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 415 Am Akdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory today...
Today..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue through Wed..N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Thu..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 240003
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
403 pm akdt Sat sep 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low over southwest alaska and the eastern
bering sea with two centers. One center is near nunivak island,
with the other center is just southwest of kodiak island. The
upper low near kodiak has an associated 989 mb surface low, and
there is another 989 mb surface low centered near king salmon.

Plenty of moisture and showers are associated with these lows.

There is an occluded front stretching from the kenai peninsula
southeast across the gulf of alaska. This is bringing a decent
amount of rain into the eastern kenai peninsula. High pressure is
over the western and central bering sea. There is also a weak
negatively tilted high over the copper river basin.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in decent agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (through Monday afternoon). There are some
minor differences in how they handle the low moving towards prince
william sound, but the agreement is better than in previous runs.

There is a split in how the surface low over southwest alaska
moves into and across bristol bay Sunday into Monday. The GFS and
nam are further west, keeping the low on the western periphery of
bristol bay, while the ECMWF and canadian gem put it into the
eastern portion of the bay. The GFS nam solution was preferred.

Forecast confidence is near normal today.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist with the
downslope on the lee side of the chugach mountains keeping
panc out of most of the rain. While some wind shear is possible
this afternoon, it will likely be above the 2000 ft threshold for
low level wind shear being mentioned in the taf. Any shear that
is there should dissipate by evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The remnants of a barrier jet remain along the northern gulf
coastline this evening and will taper off by Sunday morning with
weak onshore flow. Meanwhile, an upper level closed low is just
east of kodiak island, and looks to track through the prince
william sound region by late Sunday afternoon. This feature is
reflected at the surface with a weak 994 mb low just offshore of
chiniak bay late Saturday evening, and tracks northward into the
prince william sound area by Sunday before dissipating by Monday.

This is a little different track for the low than was expected
yesterday as it is now farther east in prince william sound as
opposed to heading over the western kenai peninsula.

Look for the northern coastal communities to receive the majority
of the precipitation. The anchorage bowl and the upper portions
of the western kenai peninsula will have drier conditions with
downsloping occurring due to the cross-barrier flow through rest
of the weekend.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
There are two upper level lows helping to bring rain to southwest
alaska. One is near kodiak island while the other is near the
kuskokwim delta coast. This setup has brought the heaviest rain
to the bristol bay area. The heaviest rains will move northwest
towards the kuskokwim delta area this evening as the low near
kodiak pushes off to the northeast and the one near the kuskokwim
delta tracks south along the coast. As this low tracks south there
is uncertainty as to its exact track. These differences will
determine how strong winds get in bristol bay on Sunday. Sunday
night the low will continue its track south into the north pacific
leaving behind light rain over southwest alaska.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure continues to dominate the majority of the bering
and aleutians and will continue to do so through Monday. This
pattern will keep northerly winds with minimal rain over the
region. The exception will be the eastern bering sea and alaska
peninsula as an upper level low near the kuskokwim delta tracks
along the coast into the north pacific through Monday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Confidence continues to increase in regards to an area of low
pressure quickly moving into the gulf of alaska from the north
pacific on Tuesday. The ECMWF is the fast outlier currently but it
now looks like gale force gusts could be expected near kodiak
island and the northern gulf Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon as a front associated with the low pressure quickly
moves through the region. Rainfall with this system will upslope
along the coastal mountains but there is a bigger question for
interior locations and it really depends on the low track.

Currently it looks like inland areas like anchorage and palmer may
miss out on much of the precip on Wednesday.

Looking at the big picture from late next week through the
weekend, it appears the wet pattern across southwest and
southcentral alaska will remain the norm. A jet streak on the
backside of an upper level low over southwest alaska on Tuesday
will help amplify the longwave trough across the state of alaska.

This will keep cyclonic flow across the region with colder air
being advected south which should keep increased instability and
rain showers in the forecast for much of the state. There could
be a few breaks with some shortwave ridging across southwest
alaska over the weekend but zonal flow will return to the state by
late Sunday and allow for another unstable pattern to develop at
that time. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain below
normal with low temperatures across the region remaining near
normal. The majority of the bering sea will be under the influence
of high pressure come Tuesday with low stratus and fog. By late
Friday, a strong low will push off of russia and into the bering
sea which will force the high southward into the north pacific
and a rather wet and windy period will be observed across the
bering next weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood warning 121 125.

Marine... Gale 119.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Mc


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 28 mi88 min W 18 G 21 48°F 51°F6 ft995.4 hPa (+1.6)43°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi48 min NW 9.9 G 15 46°F 51°F998.7 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi48 min Calm G 1 47°F 50°F995.1 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
-12
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
SE10
SE9
E12
SE12
E12
SE13
SE12
SE12
G15
SE11
SE10
SE8
SE7
SE6
NW2
NW11
G19
NW11
G20
NW11
G17
W14
G25
NW15
G23
NW10
G16
NW11
G15
NW10
G17
NW10
G14
1 day
ago
SW13
G24
SW13
G20
SW15
SW14
G21
SW13
G17
SW13
G18
S11
SW8
G12
S10
G14
S13
G17
S10
G13
S12
SE9
SE8
G12
SE13
SE12
E16
E14
G18
E11
G16
E11
G16
E16
E17
SE12
E9
2 days
ago
E9
E10
E7
E6
G9
S4
SE4
S5
S4
SW5
G8
SW7
SW5
G9
SW5
G10
S3
G7
S9
G12
SW5
G9
SW10
G14
SW8
G15
SW6
G12
SW4
S6
G16
S11
G15
SW14
G20
SW13
G19
SW14
G19

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Larsen Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:27 AM AKDT     13.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:33 AM AKDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:18 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 PM AKDT     14.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:58 PM AKDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.32.45.5911.913.613.612.19.76.94.32.72.64.37.110.112.714.11412.49.86.83.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mining Camp, Uyak Bay, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Mining Camp
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:04 AM AKDT     14.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:24 AM AKDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 PM AKDT     14.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:49 PM AKDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.53.16.610.212.914.113.511.79.16.33.92.52.84.9811.213.614.613.911.99.26.23.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.