Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday March 23, 2017 6:19 PM AKDT (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:35AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 332 Pm Akdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..NW wind 25 kt. Stronger gusts 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri..NW wind 20 kt. Stronger gusts 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat and Sat night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun through Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
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location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240058
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
458 pm akdt Thu mar 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A short-wave which dropped into the long-wave trough sitting over
southcentral alaska and the gulf of alaska last night is now
helping to kick the entire trough eastward. There are some showers
out ahead of this trough, focused along a surface trough over the
central gulf. A few clouds and isolated showers extend northward
through the cordova area and into the copper river basin.

Otherwise, clear and cool conditions continue to dominate the
southern alaska mainland and eastern bering sea regions.

Meanwhile, a large deep vertically stacked low (with estimated
central pressure of 965 mb) around 700 miles south of the aleutian
chain is tracking slowly northward. An east-west oriented occluded
front is spreading out from the low center, leading to increasing
easterlies along the aleutians.

Model discussion
Model remain in excellent agreement through Friday night and
forecast confidence remains high.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Some moisture from the gulf make bring a few snow showers inland
tonight across eastern prince william sound and into the copper
river basin. Otherwise sunny days and clear nights will continue
across the rest of the region through sat. Gusty winds through
channeled terrain will also continue as northerly surface winds
persist.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level ridge over the eastern bering will persist through
the weekend with a cold upper level trough stretching from
northern alaska into southcentral alaska. This flow pattern will
put southwest alaska under northwesterly flow aloft with the
surface winds out of the north to northeast bringing continued
cool, dry and generally sunny weather.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A gale force frontal system approaching from the south will reach
the western and central aleutians overnight tonight, bringing
gusty winds and rain to the area. The front will lift into the
southern bering Friday and Friday night. Several additional
frontal waves spinning around the parent low south of the
aleutians will rotate north across the aleutians over the weekend.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The ridging over the bering sea continues through Saturday before
an upstream north pacific low pressure system pushes the ridge
into the gulf of alaska by Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be positioned over the anchorage bowl with an
associated trough extending into the gulf from Saturday through
Tuesday, before merging with several weak north pacific lows.

While the next major storm force low tracks towards the eastern
aleutians by Thursday morning, with an associated weather front
entering the gulf. This brings a pattern change with the offshore
flow over the southcentral region diminishing, and shifting to
onshore southerly flow. There is uncertainty with timing of how
long the arctic trough stalls over the southcentral region. The
gfs model is showing a faster solution, and the ECMWF was slower
with this synoptic feature. Meanwhile, by Thursday the jet stream
transitions to a southwesterly flow just south of the eastern
aleutians extending eastward into the lower southeastern gulf.

This enhances storm tracks from the north pacific area into the
eastern aleutians/gulf region. The forecast confidence is low as
we head into midweek and beyond due to the uncertainty with the
timing/strength with the upcoming low pressure systems as they
track towards the southwest/southcentral regions.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray 121 139 185.

Gale warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178
synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Ds
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Pepe
long term... Pd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi49 min NW 18 G 25 33°F 35°F1009.4 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi49 min NNW 12 G 16 36°F 33°F1008.8 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Larsen Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:12 AM AKDT     8.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM AKDT     6.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM AKDT     9.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:35 PM AKDT     2.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.88.78.47.97.36.96.877.68.49.19.69.79.18.16.75.13.72.92.93.656.88.6

Tide / Current Tables for Mining Camp, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Mining Camp
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM AKDT     6.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     10.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:26 PM AKDT     2.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.18.98.57.97.36.96.87.17.98.89.6109.89.17.96.44.83.52.92.93.95.57.59.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.