Tuesday, April23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:44PM Tuesday April 23, 2019 2:04 AM AKDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:11AMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 1122 Pm Akdt Mon Apr 22 2019
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Tue..W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..Variable wind 10 kt becoming ne 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Wed and Wed night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
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location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230033
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
433 pm akdt Mon apr 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A large upper low center over bristol bay continues broad
cyclonic flow across of the southern mainland. Low level southwest
cold advection moving up the cook inlet region in combination with
mid level moist easterly flow from the the north gulf is
supporting a convergence band across the anchorage bowl and
matanuska valley. This band is producing widespread snow across
the aforementioned area. The remnants of a frontal band is moving
west across southwest alaska. This band is producing snow and
gusty northerly winds which are reducing visibilities below a mile
in blowing snow. Satellite imagery shows open cell cumulus with
showers, associated with cold advection, spreading south of the
alaska peninsula and recurving north and east across the gulf.

Gusty northwesterly winds with snow showers continue across the
bering sea and central and eastern aleutians.

Model discussion
The canadian regional seems to be doing a fair job of picking up
the snow associated with the convergence band over southcentral.

Some fairly significant model differences occur over the gulf on
Wednesday. The ECMWF anchors the main low near kodiak island
whereas the GFS nam can nh have multiple centers moves the gulf.

Based on the broadening upper trough with lean more toward the can
nh as a good middle ground.

Aviation
Panc...

MVFR ifr conditions in snow should end this evening with the
onset of gusty southerly winds. While conditions should become
predominatelyVFR, a passing snow shower could temporarily drop
ceilings visibilities to MVFR until just after midnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A negative tilt upper level trough continues to be the dominant
weather feature across the region. A strong cold front is now
pushing into the copper basin with warm air advection out ahead
feeding into a deformation band which has brought snow all day to
anchorage and the mat valley. This area is now spreading
northward and will bring light accumulations to the northern
susitna valley. The cold front will quickly track across the
copper basin this evening and will likely bring a snow squall
through given the strength of the front and the vigorous cold air
advection.

The front will clear the region to the north by Tuesday morning,
but with clearing skies overnight, expect temps to drop well
below freezing region wide with slick conditions possible in the
morning. The remainder of Tue and Wed will then be dominated by
convective snow showers favoring the mountains and mostly light
pressure gradients.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Tonight
through Thursday afternoon)...

an upper level low centered over the state continues to rotate
shortwaves across the eastern bering. Gusty winds, snow, and
blowing snow along the kuskokwim delta coast will continue this
afternoon before tapering off early this evening as the associated
surface low centered near norton sound moves southwest over
nunivak island by Tuesday morning. Lingering snow showers are
expected across all of southwest for Tuesday. Precipitation will
eventually taper off by Wednesday morning as the surface low
departs the bristol bay area and moves into the gulf of alaska.

Weather conditions are expected to generally improve for southwest
alaska for Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
bering.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through
3... Tonight through Thursday afternoon)...

an upper level low centered over mainland alaska will continue to
rotate several shortwaves through the central bering through tue
evening. Northerly flow across the bering will persist through wed
evening with a swath of gale-force winds traversing the pribilofs
tonight through tomorrow morning. By Tue evening, the upper level
shortwave will bring snow and blowing snow to the eastern
aleutians and southern akpen. The associated surface low centered
over the eastern bering quickly departs to the southeast by wed
afternoon into the gulf of alaska. Further west, a ridge of high
pressure moves in over the western bering for Wednesday before
another front approaches the western aleutians by Thursday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Unsettled weather across the gulf on Thursday will see a reprieve
on Friday as a surface low dissipates on an easterly track. Across
the bering, a front moves across the western waters and moves
slowly through Saturday as a ridge holds across the eastern waters
through Saturday. There is uncertainty on how fast the bering
ridge breaks down on Saturday as another north pacific front
tracks toward the alaska peninsula; however, the pattern on Friday
should persist through Saturday night.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
After an active weather pattern across the southern mainland
during the beginning of the week, the trends turn toward drier and
warmer for the end of the week. A ridge builds across the bering
mid week and slowly shifts eastward toward the southwest coast.

The low which moves to the gulf on Thursday meanders toward the
panhandle through Friday, then dissipates as it pushes inland.

There has been uncertainty with the next low that moves to the
western bering on Friday; however, models are starting to look
similar on a blocking ridge. A relatively new weather feature the
models are picking up on is a north pacific storm racing towards
the alaska peninsula on Saturday. The net result of this storm and
the front along the west bering may effectively break down the
ridge for the start of next week. There is still a bit of
uncertainty on this evolution... Wpc blends used the 12z GEFS and
00z ECMWF which advertises the ridge breaking down on Sunday with
two advancing low pressure systems heading for the mainland.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Blizzard warning 155.

Marine... Gale warning 155 170>172 179 185.

Heavy freezing spray 181 185.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ko
marine long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi75 min W 23 G 29 30°F 41°F7 ft1005.1 hPa (+2.2)17°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi35 min W 6 G 13 31°F 41°F1007.8 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi35 min WNW 11 G 13 30°F 42°F1005 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Larsen Bay
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Tue -- 02:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:15 AM AKDT     14.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:59 AM AKDT     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM AKDT     12.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.147.110.513.214.614.212.295.31.7-0.8-1.7-0.71.858.310.912.211.910.68.66.34.4

Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Uyak
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:13 AM AKDT     14.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:59 AM AKDT     -1.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM AKDT     12.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.73.8710.413.314.614.212.29.15.52.1-0.4-1.2-0.22.35.68.911.512.812.410.98.55.93.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.