Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 10:16 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 050049 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 PM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southeast flow on the east side of an eastern Bering upper-level low continues scattered light rain showers across portions of Southcentral. This precipitation will gradually taper off through tonight as the low continues to slide southeast. Gusty southeast gap winds out of the Turnagain Arm and Knik Arms and Copper River Basin will quickly diminish by early tonight.

The associated large upper level low with this system crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf later on Sunday, with a weak ridge building over interior Alaska. When combined with some weak upper level easterly shortwaves and marginal instability, a few weak/light convective showers may develop along the foothills of the Wrangell Mountains/Alaska Range in the northern Copper River Basin late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, however, this threat is conditional on any clearing early on Sunday.

There is increasing agreement that these easterly waves propagating along the southern periphery of the ridge will bring a steadier rain to much of the region Sunday night into Monday, with some model guidance hinting at a slowly westward progressing deformation band across the western Kenai up through Anchorage and the Mat-Su during the day Monday. This precipitation shuts off inland Monday night as the main upper low flattens out, but southeasterly flow will likely continue rain showers along the coast through at least Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain near climatological averages, with highs in the 50s for most of the region (except around 50 on Monday)
and lows in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded low will move eastward over the Alaska Peninsula this evening and into the Gulf of Alaska tomorrow. It will continue to bring a mix of rain and snow showers to the Aleutians, the Pribilofs, higher elevation areas of both the Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of Southwest Alaska through the weekend. A primarily cloudy sky with scattered rain showers will continue through tomorrow afternoon for interior areas of Southwest Alaska and into tomorrow evening for the Alaska Peninsula as northeast winds turn more northwesterly. Northerly to northwesterly wind flow will keep scattered snow showers through tomorrow in the Aleutians and Pribilofs. These northerly winds will also result in freezing spray for marine zones in Bristol Bay tomorrow evening.

A Bering Strait low will move southward through early next week resulting in onshore flow along Southwest Alaska. This onshore flow will bring a decrease in temperatures and increased chances for coastal snow and rain showers changing to mostly snow showers for Monday and Tuesday. A weak wave moving southward ahead of this northern Bering Strait low will bring a resurgence of cold air and snow showers to the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday evening into Tuesday.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term begins on Wednesday with a broad trough stretching from the western Aleutians/Bering across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. A closed upper-level low is located over the Bering with weak low pressure at the surface, spreading light precipitation across the region. A surface low over the northeastern Gulf and an attendant upper shortwave quickly move inland and are followed by another low/shortwave. Thus, precipitation along the Gulf coast will persist into the weekend, and agreement is very good amongst the models for above average rainfall from Wednesday through Friday for the Southcentral coast.
The chance for heaviest precipitation along the coast is expected on Thursday, with lesser amounts spreading inland through Friday.

Out west, a system from the Kamchatka Peninsula approaches the western Aleutians late Wednesday into early Thursday. Model agreement begins to diverge around this same timeframe. The GFS and EC deterministic solutions drop the system south into the North Pacific on Friday while the Canadian NH keeps the system moving east across the Bering and Aleutians, which would bring more active weather to the region. An upper-level ridge attempts to build through the weekend across portions of the Bering and Aleutians, and each model solution shows differences in the way the ridge interacts with the surrounding lows/troughs.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The biggest forecast challenge is timing and duration of gusty southeast Turnagain Arm winds.
It's another marginal day for winds to bend into the terminal due to extensive cloud cover and fairly uniform temperatures from Anchorage to the Mat-Su. However, the 00Z sounding shows unstable conditions from the surface to 900 mb, with a lapse rate of 9 degrees C/KM. Thus, expect there will be at least a brief period of gusty southeast winds as the Turnagain Arm jet can't be very far south of the terminal. For Sunday, expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures inland, so there is higher confidence in gusty southeast winds Sunday aft/eve.

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Larsen Bay
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Sat -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM AKDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM AKDT     11.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 PM AKDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Uyak
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM AKDT     12.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 PM AKDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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