Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Game Creek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:17AMSunset 4:01PM Monday January 22, 2018 1:19 AM AKST (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ021 Icy Strait- 323 Pm Akst Sun Jan 21 2018
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers late.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers.
Tue night..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Game Creek, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 57.68, -135.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak67 pajk 212357 cca
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service juneau ak
257 pm akst Sun jan 21 2018

Short term Our focus continues to be on widespread snow showers
and accumulations on Monday but attention was also given to
another system bringing more showers along the coast and for the
south going into Tuesday.

Our stable longwave pattern with two ridges, one over the bering
and another over western canada, and a deeply amplified trough
extending south from mainland alaska well into the gulf of alaska
has been and will be dictating our weather for some time. Cold
air from the bering regions of alaska long-ago dove south to round
the base of the trough and currently rests in the outer gulf
poised to enter through our southern reaches on Monday. With
plenty of lift due to steep lapse rates close to 8c km and
positive vorticity advection, we should see potentially intense
showers spread across southeast following an occluded front on
Monday. Showers will begin in the far south late Sunday night and
through Monday spreading north across the rest of our cwa.

Temperatures will remain marginal for snow in the south and along
the eastern and southeast coast, and with some building
thicknesses tonight ahead of the main low- level trough, we feel
increasingly confident that some areas in the far south may only
see rain showers tonight. However, as the front lifts north,
colder air will rush in to support a mix, even as temperatures
will remain in the middle to upper 30s. North of petersburg and
inland of sitka temperatures should support all snow.

In the north and interior panhandle we have concerns on snow
accumulations and potential impacts. We have raised snow amounts
to ranges just shy of advisory, perhaps 1 to 4 inches Monday. With
more southerly flow in the low to mid levels than easterly,
orographic lifting will be enhanced in many areas including
juneau. Steep lapse rates will migrate inland as well. Given the
convective nature of the snow, we do foresee some areas
experiencing some higher snowfall accumulations and potential
short-term white-outs. But this polar, more marine, air mass,
should also result in a wetter snow, one that compacts a little
more easily. Thus, we have kept ratios around 10:1. And in
addition, to all this, the southerly gradient behind the front has
tended to eat well- prepared higher snow forecasts for lunch. So
the rain-snow line could potentially make its way farther north
than forecast. The band of enhanced precipitation looks to be
around 6 hours, but we may see a bit longer duration of 9 hours
for juneau, which is one reason we felt confident enough to raise
amounts, but somewhat concerned as not enough.

Looking farther in time for Tuesday, the wave lifting Monday's
system stalls moisture across the northern panhandle and the
eastern gulf. A more southern originating wave lifts northward to
contribute to more snow shower enhancement with some rain mixed
in along the immediate coast. Models are mainly holding back
precipitation expanse for the central interior and northern inner
channels, in part due to increasing outflow, so impacts may be
most felt along the coast and the south. But we do look for more
light snow accumulations for portions of the western and southern
interior communities.

Outflow strong winds are still afflicting lynn canal and cross
sound with 30 kt and gusts to 40 mph in skagway. These are
forecast to steadily decline through tonight with some enhanced
southerlies appearing in the far south around daybreak Monday
morning. These southerlies will lift northward following the
frontal passage. But there remains some uncertainty as to weather
they reach lynn canal and skagway. Currently, we are skeptical and
have held back. Leading into Tuesday, a new low develops well to
our south that changes the gradient quite rapidly back to
northerly and increases through the time period. Thus, we have
stronger outflow winds redeveloping into Tuesday.

We relied on ECMWF and NAM for any updates to pop qpf, but the gfs
and ECMWF with some wind edits later on Tuesday. Forecast
confidence is good for snow in the north central regions tomorrow
with a mix to the south. However, while we give general ranges for
amounts, mother nature will likely gift us a few surprises in
snow accumulations for a few locations Monday evening.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday ... Long range period begins
with a large upper level low dominating the gulf of alaska and
another located over the northern interior. Upstream, a building
upper ridge will be situated over the bering sea. The gulf low
exhibits a slight positive tilt, but becomes negatively tilted by
Wednesday morning as the northern interior low drops south. By
Thursday, the original low shifts east to hecate strait and
weakens as the northern interior low moves south into the
northwest gulf and deepens. By this time. The upstream ridge will
have strengthened into an omega block, with another upper low near
hokkaido and sakhalin island. By the end of next weekend, the
omega block remains strong and in place and a large upper low once
again dominates the gulf of alaska.

The combined effect of the upper low(s) over the gulf and the
building upper ridge to the west will be to advect in colder low
level air over the panhandle. Some modification of this airmass
will occur as it crosses a considerable distance over the open
ocean, but the ridge will prevent any warmer air from the west
from mixing in. 850h temperatures marginally supportive of
snowfall on Tuesday and then again from Thursday onward. Similar
story for 1000-500 thicknesses. 1000-850 thicknesses remain
marginal to favorable for the entire week. Daytime highs over the
southern half of the panhandle from frederick sound south
indicating that there is a good chance that at least some of the
precipitation for this coming week will be in the form of rain.

Otherwise, what precip we do see may be mostly in the form of
snow. No well defined fronts currently being depicted in medium to
long range models, so convective precip (showers) is anticipated
through at least Tuesday night. 24 hour snow totals at this time
indicating possibly advisory level snowfall at most. Major caveat
there is that a snowfall forecast for 3-5 days into the future in
a convective environment in southeast alaska is a stretch at best,
so keeping track of how this forecast changes is in everybody's
best interest.

No significant changes to pressure or winds. Pop and QPF from gfs
and the canadian nh with some help from ECMWF through Thursday
night and the latest wpc thereafter. Daytime highs and overnight
lows generally adjusted down slightly for the second half of the
week based on current model spectrum plots. Overall forecast
confidence is average, but below average for snow totals.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 pm akst this evening for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012.

Small craft advisory for pkz013-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-051-
052.

Jwa fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 26 mi28 min E 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 999.2 hPa26°F
STXA2 42 mi28 min SSE 4.1 G 7 35°F 998.3 hPa30°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 42 mi58 min ENE 14 G 20 36°F
SHXA2 47 mi28 min SW 2.9 G 6 39°F 998.2 hPa25°F
ITKA2 47 mi50 min 39°F 44°F998.1 hPa
RIXA2 49 mi28 min N 34 G 39 31°F 998.8 hPa23°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi50 min 36°F 47°F999.8 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 54 mi54 min E 1.9 G 2.9 32°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
SE7
G20
S6
G13
W5
N7
G19
N3
NE1
W3
NE1
W2
G5
N2
G7
W6
G10
NW4
NE3
SW5
G12
SE5
G10
SE7
G11
SE9
G18
SE11
G21
SE4
G11
SE2
SE1
SE8
G14
W1
S1
1 day
ago
SW1
NW2
NW1
SW1
--
--
--
NW3
G6
W2
SW1
SE2
S3
SE2
S1
SE13
G23
N5
G11
SE11
G23
E2
G6
E6
G11
NE2
G15
E8
G18
SE4
G15
SE17
G32
SE9
G21
2 days
ago
--
--
W1
W2
W1
W2
W4
W1
W4
W3
SW1
W3
--
W1
W2
--
SW1
SW1
SW2
SW2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoonah - Hoonah Seaplane Base, AK33 mi24 minESE 810.00 miOvercast34°F23°F64%1001 hPa

Wind History from AOH (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrE9E9E9E8E6E7E7E8CalmE10E11E8E9E8NE6E8E7E6E6E7E6E10E6E8
1 day agoNE4NE7NE6E5E8E9NE7NE3E7E10E12
G18
E14
G20
E10E10E8E9E8E11E9E9E12E14E8E7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE5W3CalmCalmE3E3E4E4E5E4E5E8E6E5E6E5NE6NE64NE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Falcon Arm, Slocum Arm, Chichagof Island, Alaska
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Falcon Arm
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM AKST     10.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM AKST     3.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:43 PM AKST     9.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:05 PM AKST     1.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:57 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.868.19.510.19.68.36.653.83.33.856.68.19.19.38.67.15.23.421.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Nismeni Cove, Peril Strait, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Nismeni Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM AKST     14.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM AKST     3.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:32 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:54 PM AKST     13.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM AKST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:55 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.47.911.213.414.213.511.79.16.34.13.13.65.58.210.912.813.412.610.67.952.61.31.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.