Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tenakee Springs, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:28AMSunset 3:46PM Monday January 15, 2018 10:13 PM AKST (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 336 Pm Akst Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory Tuesday...
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Tue night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tenakee Springs, AK
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location: 57.85, -135.02     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 152251
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
151 pm akst Mon jan 15 2018

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ... With a quick
succession of fronts continues to move across the forecast area.

Another warm front moved over the panhandle from south to north
today, but was significantly weaker and did not produce as much
wide spread precipitation as those in recent days. Today's front
did not have nearly as much warm low level air behind it either
with observed temperatures through this afternoon ranging from the
mid 40s to the mid 50s. Although not as warm as yesterday, new
record high temperatures for today are likely. Hyder and skagway
are the exceptions only reaching into the mid to upper 30's.

Tuesday will feature a mild cold front that will lower daytime
highs tomorrow 5 to 10 degrees.

Satellite and radar data are showing the bulk of the clouds and
precipitation from the present system to be moving west-northwest.

With limited easterly progress, the cold front tonight may not be
overly impactful away from the central and northern outer coast.

Orographic lifting along the coast mountains south of tracy arm
should result in enhanced precipitation there as well. Total rainfall
amounts will not be particularly note worthy, with a quarter of
an inch or less overnight. The front will ride over the coast
mountains and fall apart Tuesday.

Gale force southerly or southeasterly winds are forecast over the
gulf in advance of the front tonight and are expected to last
through late Tuesday night with little to no post frontal wind
shift. Typical small craft responses expected over the inner
channels with southeasterly gales over clarence strait by mid day
tomorrow. There are some indications that the front may go aloft
as it moves inland over the panhandle, which would result in less
gusty conditions than were experienced Sunday night.

Gfs and NAM were the favored models. Brought temperatures
up a degree or two in a few locations overnight, otherwise the
temperatures showed a good trend with the cold front moving in
Tuesday. Used the GFS to update the precipitation related parts of
the forecast that resulted in little overall change.

Long term Wednesday through Monday... We appear to be in store
for a relatively active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend. As the upper level ridge over western canada
continues to break down further and push east, a very broad
trough with embedded shortwaves will build largely over the gulf.

Current model analysis generally agrees that these shortwaves, and
their associated surface lows, will stay on a mostly southeastern
trajectory through the eastern gulf. Fortunately, this means that
the subsequent positions of these incoming shortwaves indicate a
drier pattern for the panhandle, as it should provide enough
offshore flow to keep northern locations with relatively lower
chances for precipitation. Depending on the exact position of the
surface features that develop, which major models generally
disagree on at this point, southern areas of the panhandle may see
some additional precipitation with the passing of these systems.

For the most part, we've trended temperatures downward in the
forecast, especially into the weekend. Potential temperature
analysis shows much colder air wrapping in aloft beginning Friday,
and model spreads also imply cooler air moving in at the surface.

We used the gem for updates in the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe and elected to remain with wpc guidance past this point,
as major models do not agree on the position and timing of surface
features.

Aviation Some wind shear remains in panhandle tafs, but the
parent circulation for the front tonight will remain far enough
offshore that the bulk of the turbulence should remain offshore.

Generally, mvmc will prevail over the next 24 hours due to both
lower CIGS and reduced vsby at different times. There are areas of
vmc out there as of this afternoon, but confidence in conditions
remains this good as the next front moves in is not good. Periods
of imc primarily due to reduced vsby in fog are also expected and
have already occurred over the far northern inner channels.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until noon akst today for akz017.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-022-033-036-053.

Kv fritsch voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 12 mi22 min E 7 G 9.9 41°F 997.3 hPa36°F
RIXA2 23 mi22 min NNW 22 G 28 40°F 997.8 hPa36°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 26 mi52 min SSW 5.1 G 18 44°F
NKXA2 28 mi22 min NNE 27 G 36 45°F 996.7 hPa38°F
SCXA2 32 mi22 min NNE 8.9 G 16 40°F 999.3 hPa36°F
PTLA2 37 mi22 min NNW 11 G 21 39°F 999.1 hPa36°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 39 mi64 min NW 22 G 28 43°F 997.3 hPa41°F
MVXA2 42 mi22 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 35°F 999.9 hPa31°F
MXXA2 44 mi22 min ENE 2.9 G 7 42°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 45 mi44 min ENE 1 G 2.9 38°F 1000.1 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 45 mi24 min W 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 999 hPa39°F
AJXA2 45 mi22 min WNW 2.9 G 6 37°F 999.2 hPa31°F
JMLA2 45 mi22 min W 4.1 G 6 38°F 999.4 hPa37°F
LIXA2 48 mi22 min NW 30 G 41 42°F 999.4 hPa38°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoonah - Hoonah Seaplane Base, AK29 mi18 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F100%999.5 hPa

Wind History from AOH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE18
G30
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G28
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E11E10E8E9E6E5NE4E7NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoE11E14E14
G19
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2 days agoE10E9E10E10E8E8E10E10E6E9E8E10E10E9E10E6E10E12
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Freshwater Bay, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Freshwater Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM AKST     13.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKST     3.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:27 PM AKST     15.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:49 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:50 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:18 PM AKST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:04 PM AKST     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.913.612.710.78.15.5445.68.311.41415.415.413.710.66.72.90-1.1-0.32.35.89.3

Tide / Current Tables for Hawk Inlet Entrance, Alaska
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Hawk Inlet Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM AKST     13.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM AKST     3.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:27 PM AKST     16.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:47 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:18 PM AKST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:03 PM AKST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.113.913.211.28.55.84.13.95.48.311.614.415.915.914.110.86.830.1-1-02.66.19.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.