Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday April 25, 2019 3:54 PM AKDT (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:55AMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 212 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Tonight..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain.
Fri..E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt becoming ne late. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 252250
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
250 pm akdt Thu apr 25 2019

Short term through Friday night ... A developing low over the
far southern gulf is visible in satellite imagery this afternoon.

This low will track north over the eastern gulf this evening while
intensifying to marginal gale force. Minimum pressure on this
system is not very low at 1004 mb, which should happen either
late tonight or early tomorrow. At that time, the low will begin
to weaken and move off to the southeast, remaining far enough
offshore so as to not be a wind concern for the outer coast. Radar
imagery is indicating a transition from convective to stratiform
precipitation off the outer coast as of mid afternoon. Am
expecting rain to arrive there by mid evening. The developing
front does not currently look very impressive in satellite
imagery, but there is very good model agreement on strong
frontogenesis late tonight into tomorrow morning. Biggest question
and area of uncertainty with this short term forecast is whether
or not the area of greatest mid level dynamics - and heaviest
precipitation - will make it inland along the central outer coast.

Have created the afternoon forecast based on morning model data
with the idea that periods of heavy rain will in fact cross the
outer coast late tonight and move southeast over the southern
inner channels tomorrow.

Overnight lows will support snow in hoonah, gustavus, and along
the haines highway if frontal precip makes it that far inland
before tomorrow morning and daytime warming. Snow totals if it
does snow should be an inch or less. Farther north and east,
overnight lows in the juneau area and yakutat will get cold enough
for snow tonight, but do not think precip from this front will
make it to those spots before temps warm up tomorrow.

Used GFS for updates to pressure and wind. Pop from GFS with some
help from sref. QPF based on gfs, but included some NAM to keep
values from becoming unrealistically high. Overall confidence is
average.

Long term Saturday to Thursday the main feature during this
time frame will be the ridge of high pressure over the central
gulf of alaska into the alaskan interior and then eastward into
british columbia. A small trough of lower pressure lingers along
the coast mountains northward from the british columbia coast.

The mid and long range solutions have good solid agreement on the
ridge building and holding in place.

We needed to overhaul the mid to long ranges based on the consistency
of the solutions and overall confidence in the pattern; so the gulf
winds were reworked from late Saturday onward.

Another alteration in the forecast was that for Sunday to
Tuesday, low temperatures got a nudge down (especially southern
half of panhandle), based on lighter winds and clear skies
overnight allowing better nighttime cooling. Did bump the
Wednesday high up a touch to keep trend from midweek.

As a result of the ridge, dry weather should be expected across
the panhandle for the late weekend and start of the week. A
northwest flow along the outer coast of the panhandle could
increase to 25 kt west of price of wales island. Another small
concern with a high anchored there is the possibility of a marine
stratus deck forming under the high and rotating around the high
along the outer coast. Have not put that into the forecast for
early next week, but will need to watch out for it.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz043-051.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-022-031-041-042-052.

Fritsch bezenek
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi42 min 41°F 45°F1021.7 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi44 min E 27 G 35 39°F 1022.4 hPa36°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi28 min E 5.1 G 8 40°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi68 minWNW 1215.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1021 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW8--Calm----------------------E10--E12------E10--NW12
1 day ago--W10--Calm----------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--W6--NW8
2 days ago--W15
G35
--W12----------------------W12--5--NW8--NW10--W8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
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Thu -- 02:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 AM AKDT     8.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM AKDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM AKDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.85.97.28.38.78.57.55.942.310.40.61.52.94.55.96.97.276.45.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Takanis Bay, Alaska
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Takanis Bay
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Thu -- 02:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:03 AM AKDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM AKDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 PM AKDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.24.96.17.38.38.78.37.35.842.41.20.60.81.73.14.65.96.87.16.96.35.65

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.