Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:41PM Friday October 19, 2018 5:03 AM AKDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 12:21AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ022 Cross Sound- 418 Am Akdt Fri Oct 19 2018
.storm warning through this morning...
Today..E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the morning, then becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain early in the morning, then showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers late.
Sat..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
Sat night..E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
Mon..E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft.
Tue..E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak67 pajk 182305
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
305 pm akdt Thu oct 18 2018

Short term through Saturday night a wet and windy night as
well as Friday is still in the works as a storm force front moves
over the panhandle. Low level jet strength along the front is
still suggested to be around 50 to 65 kt over most of the
panhandle as the front moves through which is plenty for gusts of
40 to 55 mph at the surface for most areas. Strong wind headlines
have been issued for most of the panhandle as a result. The high
wind watch that was up for the sitka and pelican area has been
changed to a strong wind headline as concerns about low level flow
being more offshore here as well as the possibility that the
atmosphere might be a little too stable to allow the really high
winds aloft to shift down to the surface. The northern gulf coast
on the other hand has the double whammy of the initial front
followed by the second wrap coming in later on Friday. Guidance
today has shifted the position of the second wrap farther east
into a more favorable position for high winds at yakutat. As a
result, the high wind watch that was up for yakutat has been
upgraded to a warning for gusts up to 65 mph mainly for when the
second wrap comes in on fri. Winds gradually diminish after
frontal passage through Sat though lynn canal and skagway may need
until Sat night for winds to diminish there. Winds in the gulf
then start to increase again as the next front starts to advance.

Rain will be the other concern with this front. Satellite precipiable
water retrievals show a well developed tropical connection with
values of just over an inch in pw throughout the plume (which is
around 150% of normal). Guidance for water vapor transport show
this area of high pw is still aimed for the panhandle. Heaviest
rainfall is expected late tonight into early Friday with total
rainfall expected to be around 1 to 3 inches total. Rain rapidly
changes to convective showers post front as cooler air moves in
behind the system. The cooler air aloft above the warmer waters of
the gulf will destabilize the atmosphere enough that many of the
showers could have heavy rain and some may be strong enough to be
thunderstorms. Thus a large area of isolated thunderstorms is in
the forecast for Fri into Fri night for the gulf and outer coast.

Showers will persist into the weekend gradually diminishing in
intensity and frequency. Rain becomes heavy again into Sat night
for the northern gulf coast and gulf as the next front moves in.

Overall guidance was fairly good with few large scale changes
needed. Main change from yesterday was the inclusion of a weaker
triple point low just to the east of the main stronger low early
Friday. This shifted the strong winds of the second wrap farther
east putting it more in line with yakutat.

Long term Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday... Deep
long wave trough centered from the bering sea southward through
the western gulf and into the npac will dominate the weather over
se ak through mid next week. This will lead to several chances for
significant precipitation and wind through the period. The first
such system will be lifting into the western gulf early Saturday
as a 970 mb surface low. The associated front will drift east and
cross the panhandle through early Monday. Ensemble ivt
probabilities from GEFS show 70-80% probs of ivt greater than 500
kg m S over the southern panhandle late Sunday into early Monday
which correlates well to moderate to heavy rainfall. This system
looks to have an extremely long fetch of moisture stretching all
the way into the western npac so there will likely be additional
much needed rainfall to the drought stricken southern panhandle
with this system. GEFS ensemble average QPF for metlakatla Monday
through Thursday is around 3 inches which is good news for these
areas.

Strong zonal pacific jet with a core of around 160kt will
broaden the long wave pattern over the gulf of alaska after the
Monday system. This will push the storm track further south next
week with the potential for one or two significant storms in the
se gulf while allowing temperatures to cool a bit over the
northern panhandle with a bit more cyclonic flow aloft. Model
agreement is decent in the long wave pattern but quite poor in
resolving individual systems after Monday.

Hydrology The high rain rates expected with the strong front
coming in will cause local rivers and streams to rise with the
greatest rises likely on smaller basins. Some of the smaller
rivers and streams may reach bankfull mid day Fri before the
higher rain rates move out of the area.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
akz020-024-026.

Strong wind from late tonight through Friday morning for akz027.

Strong wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
akz025.

Strong wind from 10 pm akdt this evening through Friday
afternoon for akz022.

Strong wind from 10 pm akdt this evening through Friday morning
for akz023.

Strong wind from 1 am akdt Friday through Friday afternoon for
akz021.

Strong wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
akz028.

Strong wind Friday afternoon for akz018-019.

High wind warning from 7 am to 4 pm akdt Friday for akz017.

Strong wind from 1 am akdt Friday through Friday morning for
akz017.

Strong wind Friday afternoon for akz017.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz022-043-051-052.

Gale warning for pkz012-021-031>036-041-042-053.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-013.

Eal del
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi34 min 47°F 52°F1004.6 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi54 min ENE 39 G 58 45°F 1004.7 hPa44°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi38 min NE 8 G 14 43°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hr--------------------------------CalmCalm--Calm--5--E7
1 day ago------------------------------4--Calm--W7--NW7----
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Alaska
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Canoe Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 AM AKDT     1.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:44 AM AKDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM AKDT     3.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:59 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM AKDT     8.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.74.43.12.21.82.23.24.567.38.18.37.86.85.64.53.93.84.35.26.47.487.9

Tide / Current Tables for Takanis Bay, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Takanis Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 AM AKDT     2.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:38 AM AKDT     8.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM AKDT     3.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:17 PM AKDT     7.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.64.43.22.322.43.34.76.17.38.18.27.76.85.74.7444.45.46.57.47.97.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.