Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 3:29PM Monday November 20, 2017 6:36 AM AKST (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 357 Am Akst Mon Nov 20 2017
.gale warning this morning...
Today..E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192350
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
250 pm akst Sun nov 19 2017

Short term Tonight through Tuesday... Currently, a weakening
shortwave is progressing east through british columbia, canada.

The deep ridge that extended over the western gulf the last few
days has also weakened and is beginning to propagate east, due to
a strengthening shortwave digging southeast out of mainland
alaska. This synoptic setup has given us our clear skies today and
provided some unseasonably below normal temperatures this
morning. The current snow cover probably also assisted with the
radiational cooling process early this morning to provide single
digit temps for some locations, including gustavus, hoonah, and
the mendenhall valley area of juneau. Some outflow winds have
persisted today due to a relatively tight pressure gradient that
remains over the panhandle, so we have some small craft advisories
that continue for lynn canal and along the eastern gulf water

From current IR satellite imagery, we can see the developing low
near the surface over the gulf that is associated with the
shortwave pushing out of mainland alaska. This low will continue
to strengthen overnight tonight. Upper level potential
temperature analysis still shows this low cutting off from the
main flow aloft. The associated weather front will then lift
across the eastern gulf early Monday and stall along the
coastline of the panhandle. Confidence is increasing for an
overrunning event with this feature concerning snow accumulation
in the 3 to 6 inches range, mainly for portions of the northern
panhandle, with more significant accumulations expected through
the icy strait corridor and along eastern baranof island and
southeastern admiralty island. Terrain effects and upslope flow
will help with providing additional snow accumulation. A winter
weather advisory has been issued for these locations and is in
effect from 9pm Monday to 9am Tuesday. In addition, as the
gradient tightens between this developing low and a strong ridge
over canada, we'll expect the winds to increase throughout the
inner channels and along the front that will stall through the
offshore and eastern gulf waters.

On Tuesday, a rex block pattern will set up, with the ridge of
high pressure from canada positioned over the cut off low over the
gulf. This is another indication that this pattern will remain
steady for the next few days. Another feature will then lift
northeast out of the central gulf using the same energy from the
cut off low beginning late Thursday. Due to the position of this
new system, we'll see warm air advection initiate through
southern areas of the panhandle, and we'll have some higher
precipitable water amounts with this system. 925 mb temperature
analysis shows the freezing line shifting north with this warm
air push, so there will be a concern as to where the rain snow
line will position itself during this event.

For model guidance, we chose predominantly a combination of the
nam and GFS for any major adjustments. We also opted to use some
higher resolution models for the pops and the qpf. We stayed with
mostly bias corrected models to adjust the temperatures in the
short-term, mainly for increasing them for Tuesday as we get the
warm push from the next feature.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday models have a reasonable
agreement Tuesday in regards to a low that drops down from the
western gulf into the north pacific. It will not be the last time
se alaska will see this low pressure, as it does a sweeping
concave turn towards haida gwaii. This is about the time that the
models start to diverge in their solutions. The GFS is the most
aggressive bringing a closed low to near haida gwaii, while the
nam has the slowest approach with the ec taking the middle road.

By thanksgiving the GFS has brought the to near yakutat, while the
ecmwf solutions dawdles in the southeast gulf and eventually
fills the low. The ECMWF has also become the rogue model solution
with major solutions between the last two runs, this leaves the
gfs a reasonable model to do blending to as needed. Overall using
an ensemble approach will be the most prudent solution for the
later part of the upcoming week. Used wpc to extend out through
Sunday, with a small nudge using the gfs.

A slow trend to warmer weather by mid week for the southern
panhandle and then spreading into the central panhandle as far
north of juneau over the weekend. Areas in the south and along
the outer coastal waters from sitka south with be predominately
rain, while a mix of precipitation will be the norm for the
central areas. By Saturday the warmer air should reach yakutat and
haines areas making for a mix of rain and snow during the warmer
part of the day. Snow will continue in the skagway.

Strong outflows will be diminishing as the southerly winds advance
northward, lynn canal area and northern areas of glacier bay will
be the hold outs with northerly winds persisting but diminishing
into the weekend.

Forecast confidence in the mid range Tuesday-Wednesday is
average and then slips lower. With the meager model agreement and
model run disparities with the ecmwf, confidence remains low for
the details late week and into the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm Monday to 9 am akst Tuesday
for akz020-021-024-025.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz011>013-021-022-031-034-042-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz032-033-035-036-041-053.

Voveris kv
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi49 min 26°F 46°F1003 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi87 min E 44 G 53 29°F 22°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi131 min E 1.9 G 1.9 22°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------E7--E6------E6--5
1 day ago------------------------------NW7
2 days ago------------------------------E11----E12NW12--NW12--6

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
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Mon -- 01:56 AM AKST     9.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM AKST     3.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:55 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:16 PM AKST     10.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:36 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM AKST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Dry Pass
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Mon -- 01:53 AM AKST     9.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 AM AKST     3.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:13 PM AKST     10.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:36 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:02 PM AKST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.