Saturday, March24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:22PM Friday March 23, 2018 10:29 PM AKDT (06:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 856 Pm Akdt Fri Mar 23 2018 Updated
Rest of tonight..W wind 20 kt becoming ne 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 25 kt becoming sw 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Wed..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232225
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
225 pm akdt Fri mar 23 2018

Short term Wv imagery this afternoon continue to show a closed
mid upper low south of haida gwaii with sharp ridging extending
northward from the central gulf into the central mainland of ak. A
weak shortwave over the ak peninsula was making an attempt to
push into the mean ridge position while a second shortwave was
drifting southward from through the yukon towards the NE gulf.

A persistent band of light precip continues over the central and
southern panhandle well north of the main upper low. This precip
has shown some banded structure and is most likely being driven
by an area of weak frontogenesis along a low to mid level shear
axis. Snow has been reported under the heavier precip rates today
and as much as 1.5 inches was reported at petersburg early this
afternoon. Light rain or light snow will continue through the
evening hours as this band slowly sinks southward with little
additional accumulation.

Outflow winds have been on the decrease today and expect that
trend to continue tonight as the cold air advection ceases. By
Saturday morning expect small craft winds to be confined to
northern lynn canal with 15 kt or less across much of the inside

The yukon shortwave will combine with the remnants of the wave
from the ak peninsula to induce a weak surface low in the northern
gulf Saturday and this low will track ese into the southern
panhandle by Saturday night. Kept cloudy skies with areas of
light rain or snow developing across southern areas by Saturday
night. To the north, skies will remain relatively clear behind
the mid level wave, and some weak CAA will ensue on Saturday
night. This will allow outflow winds to return to small craft
levels over all of lynn canal and cross sound by late Saturday
night, possibly continuing into early Sunday. Gradient rapidly
weakens on Sunday ahead of the next front approaching from the sw.

Models have trended slower with the next front progged to move
into the gulf on Sunday and Sunday night. Both the GFS and
especially the euro allow the front to take a more elongated and
southern approach. This may allow winds over the inside waters to
remain lighter and more northerly than the current forecast, so
trended in that direction. With the weak gradient, what precip
does fall on Sunday night into Monday especially north of
frederick sound may end up being snow with the continental airmass
in place, but due to some model differences did not make many
changes to precip type or amounts at this time.

Long term Monday through Thursday as of 10 pm Thursday the
long term forecast continues to look wet. The primary concern in
the extended forecast remains a weather front that will track east
across the gulf Sunday. Precipitation still looks to begin as
snow or a rain and snow mix with this system before transitioning
to rain as warm air advection occurs. The far northern panhandle,
specifically, the haines and klondike highways may stay all snow
with this system. However, the bulk of heavier precipitation looks
to set up over the southern panhandle where it will fall as rain,
so snow accumulations remains low as a whole with about 1 inch
forecasted over the northern panhandle. This system continues to
look quite wet with precipitatible water values in excess of 2
standard deviations above normal. Models have trended the heavier
precipitation further south so the largest rainfall totals are
expected south of fredrick sound currently. A brief break in
precipitation may occur after this front moves out, before another
low and its associated front move north over the gulf toward the
middle of the week.

Model agreement is average with poor run to run consistency
leading to lower forecast confidence. Not much change was made in
the extended forecast Sunday and Monday. Models are still
struggling with the timing of the system and precipitation totals;
however, they were diminished slightly and models have trended
precip totals downward with the exception of the GFS which
continues to be the wettest model. Primary guidance was a blend of
the ECMWF and canadian to handle minor changes to the Sunday and
Monday timeframe with newest wpc being used beyond that timeframe
to add the midweek low to the extended forecast.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012.

Small craft advisory for pkz013.

Del jb
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi48 min 34°F 1008.3 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi80 min NNW 17 G 29 40°F 1009.1 hPa31°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi64 min ESE 1 G 2.9 35°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------4----NW8
1 day ago------------------------------NW7
2 days ago--------------------------------CalmNW11--N8--N12--NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
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Sat -- 03:24 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:12 AM AKDT     9.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 11:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:21 PM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:01 PM AKDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Dry Pass
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Sat -- 03:23 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:09 AM AKDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 11:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:22 PM AKDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM AKDT     7.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.