Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 9:50PM Monday July 16, 2018 9:50 PM AKDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:38AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 320 Pm Akdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Tonight..S wind 15 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 7 ft. S swell.
Tue..Light winds becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 162255
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
255 pm akdt Mon jul 16 2018

Short term As of Monday afternoon an upper level jet streak
is exiting SE ak into northern bc while an upper shortwave
swings into the western gulf. A weakening surface low in the ne
gulf will continue to support scattered showers along the NE gulf
and across the northern panhandle as swly onshore flow continues.

A fetch of mid-level moisture streaming across the southern
panhandle will be enhanced by the shortwave trough as it moves
eastward across the gulf and spins up a weak surface low trough
feature early Tuesday. The southern panhandle will receive a
brief shot of moderate rain as the feature quickly passes through
during the day, moving out by Tuesday evening. Along with the rain
a noticeable wind shift will occur Tuesday afternoon along the
outer coast into the southern panhandle to more nwly flow. As the
low moves inland and flow weakens, shower activity will also
decrease across most of the region.

Into Wednesday, models currently suggest a weak upper low over
the E gulf and weak surface ridging with w-nw flow across the
region with possible isolated to scattered shower activity. This
upper circulation is also hinting at a set up for an easterly wave
across the border into the skagway haines area. Preferred a 12z
nam GFS blend to make minor updates to the pop and winds.

Decreased Wednesday MAX temperatures a few degrees across the
central and southern areas closer to MOS guidance.

Long term Wednesday through next Monday to understand what
will transpire in southeast alaska later this week, we must turn
our attention to the arctic. In summertime, that is often not a
good sign.

Currently a longwave trough resides across the great land. While
this explains why it is cooler across much of mainland alaska, it
should also explain why we are wetter, as our flow is
southwesterly. Likewise, on the back side of the mean trough, a
healthy 100-kt jet at 300 mb drives impulse after impulse through
the bering strait into the gulf of alaska. This will periodically
deepen any system passing through the base of the longwave trough
in the gulf. And in general, whenever we have a low in the gulf,
we do not tend to go with a dry forecast for southeast. Likewise,
to our west, a weaker jet rides across the north pacific and will
help spin up another low in the southern bering sea. Assessed
in a group, both a low in the gulf and a low in the southern
bering sea along with a ridge occupying the vacancy between the
two, we can begin to identify an omega block. Why is this
important? They tend to be stable and have a difficult time
breaking up. They also tend to pass by slower, like a nagging
cold. And it appears increasingly likely, we will be under the
influence of a slow moving low trough for much of midweek. Hence
our about-face with our forecast for much of mid-week.

Here is a bright side: while the polar jet is still active north
of us, it will exert some sway eastward on our omega block. This
should push the low beyond us into western canada eventually and
usher in the ridge between the two systems. So as we formerly were
expecting a brief break in dry weather mid-week, we now are
pushing this break forward in time, to start a drying trend much
later in the week and to potentially include much of the weekend.

Now uncertainty still rises into the weekend, even as this would
be good news for many. Should this omega block not be quietly
escorted eastward by vigorous arctic systems, we may continue to
extend showers late into the week. For now we have raised shower
chances during mid-week and cooled temperatures in line with this
paradigm shift. Contrarily, the warming trend for this weekend is
still on as we have dried pops to prepare for an expected ridge.

But should the omega block drive more quickly or more
characteristically take its sweet time, our forecast details will
have to change.

We expect mainly westerly winds in the mid to long range with the
potential for some wave development Wednesday Thursday in the
gulf, so the gulf forecast remains tenuous but impacts should be
minimal. With an expected ridge in the gulf and opposing lower
pressure in the canadian interior, we expect mainly lighter
southerlies westerlies through the inner channels. However, should
the upper low over southeast exit into canada, a thermal trough
will likely form in the southern panhandle veering winds back to
northerly for the central inner channels at least this weekend. We
toned winds for lynn canal down in the extended as expected
ridging may not be as strong.

We used gfs ECMWF canadian NAM ensemble for Wednesday to handle
small wave uncertainties in westerly flow over the gulf. We then
increased influence of wpc through later in the week. Saturday and
beyond, we left wind forecast unchanged with some decrease in pops
and increase in temperatures.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz043-051.

Ddh jwa
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi38 min 53°F 50°F1019.2 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi40 min SSW 9.9 G 12 54°F 1020 hPa50°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi24 min S 1.9 G 5.1 55°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi3.1 hrsN 012.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------Calm--Calm--NW7--6--W6------Calm
1 day ago----------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm
2 days agoNW6--------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm------Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
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Tue -- 04:25 AM AKDT     9.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:57 AM AKDT     -1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:04 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 PM AKDT     9.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:30 PM AKDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.74.66.98.89.99.88.46.23.50.9-0.9-1.5-0.71.13.76.38.49.69.68.56.64.52.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Dry Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:22 AM AKDT     10.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM AKDT     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:03 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:26 PM AKDT     9.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:31 PM AKDT     1.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.84.778.9109.88.56.23.51-0.8-1.4-0.61.23.86.58.69.79.78.56.74.62.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.