Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:08AMSunset 9:40PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 7:11 PM AKDT (03:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:37AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 525 Pm Akdt Wed May 24 2017 Updated
.small craft advisory due to seas Thursday...
Rest of tonight..W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..W wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri..W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 242246
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
246 pm akdt Wed may 24 2017

Short term through Friday quiet weather day across the area
as a surface ridge in the gulf is causing NW flow across the
panhandle. Northern panhandle and the northern gulf coast are
still seeing plenty of clouds due to onshore flow pushing marine
layer clouds into the area. Meanwhile the central and southern
panhandle have seen many breaks in the clouds due to the more
along shore flow there. Winds have calmed down along the outer
coast as the gulf ridge has flattened out a bit but we are still
seeing winds to 20 kt around cross sound and CAPE decision.

Main concerns for the short term is a weakening front that will be
trying its best to break through the ridge Thu and fri. Yakutat
and areas westward will bear the brunt of the rain with
categorical pops expected tonight through thu. For the rest of the
panhandle it will be a battle of how much of the front survives
going over the ridge axis to determine if any rain falls. The
northern panhandle I left as chance pops as there should still be
enough onshore flow combined with the remaining frontal dynamics
and terrain effects that at least the higher elevations will see
some precip through Thu night. Southern panhandle will likely stay
dry as flow stays more along shore and even a little offshore
down there through the period.

Winds expected to remain mostly low except in lynn canal and
along the outer coast. Tip jet effect may cause cross sound to
again rise to small craft conditions this evening and tomorrow
afternoon. As for lynn canal, the northerly pressure gradient is
the culprit that will keep winds around 20 to 25 kt for most of
the period.

Short range models were in decent agreement so not many changes
were made to the forecast overall. Used mainly NAM and GFS where

Long term Friday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Tuesday.

Generally a quiet weather pattern over the area for the weekend
into next week. Upper level pattern consists of a ridge parked
over bc and a trough over the bering sea. This overall pattern
remains largely unchanged through the period with some
fluctuations as short wave troughs move through the overall
pattern (particularly for the bering sea trough). These short
waves mainly serve to strengthen both large scale features by
early next week.

Meanwhile lower in the atmosphere, the surface ridge is setting up
further to the west then where the 500 mb ridge axis will be.

Stretching N to S across the eastern gulf, the ridge will be
another rather persistent feature for the long range even though
it will fluctuated in strength. Its persistence will mean NW flow
for the extreme eastern gulf and lighter winds for the inner
channels, generally dry conditions as gulf storms stay in the
western gulf, and mostly warmer weather.

One question mark remains, and that is how wide spread marine
layer clouds will be. High-res boundary layer rh model guidance at
the start of the long range reveals that there will be substantial
low level moisture in the gulf. So low clouds are likely to be
wide spread over the gulf at least, with the outer coast and
maybe areas farther inland seeing more low clouds during the
nights and mornings. Kept sky cover as mostly cloudy for many
areas of the gulf and outer coast for the extended period to
account for this and temperatures along the outer coast may need
to be lowered due to the persistent cloud cover.

Long range models in good agreement on the overall pattern but did
start to struggle with individual short waves that were rounding
the upstream trough into early next week. Model trends still
favoring a mostly dry and warmer long range period. Used mostly
wpc for updates where needed.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-022-041-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051-052.

Eal fcf
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi41 min 47°F 52°F1024.2 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi61 min WNW 18 G 23 46°F 44°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi45 min SSW 6 G 8.9 47°F 1023.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi24 minWNW 107.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW15
1 day ago----------------------4--NW9--NW12--NW10--NW12--NW13----
2 days ago----------------------Calm--Calm--NW5--5----5----Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM AKDT     -1.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM AKDT     9.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 PM AKDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Dry Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM AKDT     -1.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:47 PM AKDT     9.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM AKDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.