Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:53PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 9:53 AM AKDT (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AK
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location: 57.89, -167.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251251
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
451 am akdt Wed apr 25 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern this morning consists of a very large
upper level low centered over the northern bering but extending
south across the aleutians and well into the north pacific.

Eastern portions of the upper low have pushed into western alaska
with a cold airmass aloft and strong southwesterly flow bringing
cool showery conditions to southwest alaska. In southcentral
alaska, the frontal system moving through yesterday and last night
has exited the area to the north and east with most areas
switching over to scattered showers though precipitation lingering
the longest along the northern gulf coast. As the cold advection
over southwest alaska spreads east, so do the more abundant
showers, with showers starting to pick up again in southcentral
alaska particularly over and along the mountains.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the end of the
week with high resolution models preferred for better details.

Some small model differences start to become apparent in the
handling of the trough crossing southern alaska on Friday
regarding its strength and exact tracks as well as with the speed
of larger frontal system following it in from the west Friday
night and Saturday.

Aviation
Panc... PredominantlyVFR conditions and breezy southeasterly
winds will persist for the next couple of days. Scattered showers
around the area may briefly drop conditions to MVFR with heavier
showers possibly being mixed with snow at times.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The mean position of the upper long wave trough continues over
western alaska eastern bering sea through Thursday night. This
will continue broad southwesterly flow and allow embedded upper
short waves to move across southcentral. Air aloft continues to
cool aloft through Thursday bringing relatively unstable
conditions. That said, expect showery weather to prevail across
much of southcentral. Precipitation type will be somewhat
problematic as wet bulb zero heights (snow levels) will be fairly
low during the morning hours inland before rising in the
afternoon. So expect generally showers to be mainly rain along the
coasts with a mix inland to all snow at higher elevation and
northern valley sections.

Surface pressure gradients should remain strong enough to continue
small craft winds over much of the western gulf cook inlet region
through today. In addition, gap flows will continue across
turnagain arm, out of the knik river valley, and along the copper
river basin into Thursday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Unseasonably cool and wet weather will plague southwest alaska
through the forecast period as an upper level low remains in place
over the bering. The low center will shift slightly north today
leading to persistent southwesterly onshore flow which will
promote widespread rain showers across the region. A shortwave
trough rotating around the base of the upper low will move up into
the bristol bay area this afternoon leading to a period of
enhanced shower activity over the bristol bay coast and up through
the kuskokwim river valley. In fact, some of these showers may
become more deeply convective in nature as limited surface
heating combined with cold air aloft will lead to steep mid level
lapse rates and decent instability in the afternoon. Hi-res models
show a line of enhanced showers forming from a line between king
salmon, iliamna, and sparrevohn this afternoon, thus embedded
isolated thunderstorms may be possible in this area.

Shower activity will taper off some Wednesday night and Thursday
morning before a low dropping south across the northern bering
brings another round of precipitation and gusty southwest winds
late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Colder air
associated with this system as well as plenty of antecedent cold
air at the surface should keep precipitation as snow for most
locations, though accumulations only look to be minimal at this
time.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A broad upper low over the bering will shift slightly north and
east today keeping the eastern half of the bering aleutians under
cool and showery conditions while a shortwave ridge builds in over
the western half of the area bringing drier weather to places
like shemya and adak. On Thursday, a shortwave trough dropping
south over the central bering will sweep across the pribilofs and
eastern bering bringing snow changing over to rain by Thursday
evening. The next major system comes barreling across the pacific
towards the western bering aleutians by Thursday afternoon
bringing gale force winds and heavy rain across the island chain
as it progresses east through the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long range forecast beginning Thursday night continues with
higher precipitation chances across the southern mainland as an
upper level bering low and associated surface front lifts north of
the bering strait through Saturday. The next storm system quickly
follows as a fast paced low tracks across the bering, making it
to the southwest coast by Saturday morning.

Models have been struggling with evolving the individual low
tracks as the jet stream acts as a 110+ kt conveyor belt which
remains along the aleutian chain and southern gulf through early
next week. Models are starting to align better with breaking the
ridge down over the gulf over the latter part of the weekend.

However, this is a new trend for the forecast at the start of next
week. Main updates for the extended forecast focus around
stronger winds along the bering and trends toward higher
precipitation chances for the southern mainland and surrounding
waters.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jer
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kv
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.