Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:19AM||Sunset 9:46PM||Sunday August 19, 2018 6:06 AM AKDT (14:06 UTC)||Moonrise 3:35PM||Moonset 11:18PM||Illumination 56%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AKHourly EDIT Help
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|Fxak68 pafc 191239|
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
439 am akdt Sun aug 19 2018
Analysis and upper levels
A warm front, associated with a mature low stemming from the
north pacific, stretches from the eastern aleutians into the
northern gulf. Satellite imagery shows the low with a canopy of
clouds from just north of the eastern aleutians, spreading over
the alaska peninsula and much of the southwest into southcentral
alaska. Behind the front, a sector of dry air is wrapping around
the low and moving over parts of the eastern aleutians. Radar
returns have detected rainfall from kodiak island across the
akpen through the southern half of southwest alaska. Rain is also
beginning to fall along the southern stretches of prince william
sound. The low continues to have favorable upper-level support as
it sits at the base of the long-wave trough in the left exit
region of the jet with winds approaching 120 kts. The clear and
dry conditions that prevailed over the central bering and
pribilofs last night is quickly being eroded away this morning by
the northward advance of the occlusion on the northwest side of
the low as well as a warm front moving east across the western
On the eastern edge of the low, the front continues to push into
the northern gulf increasing clouds and winds throughout the area.
Easterly gusts up to 35 kts have been observed throughout the
southwestern gulf and are making their way northward as indicated
by reports from buoys in the area. Winds for the time being remain
relatively light across the kenai peninsula, the northern gulf,
and coast of southcentral alaska.
Models are in good agreement through roughly the first 48 hours of
the forecast package with the placement of the front associated
with the north pacific low as it moves into the gulf. Confidence
then begins to wane as the long-wave trough moves into the gulf.
There is some disagreement both in the placement of the trough in
the northern gulf and in the overall life-cycle of this feature.
The NAM is suggesting the development of a closed low by late
Tuesday while the ec and the GFS treat this feature as more of an
open wave. This is leading to subtle differences in the placement
of the core of heaviest precipitation and overall qpf. Models have
become more cohesive with the second front advancing toward the
Panc... GenerallyVFR conditions with occasional light rain after
00z. Ceilings may also drop to 4,000ft at times this afternoon.
Winds will be fairly light at the surface today; however, llws is
expected between 18z and 08z due to strong SE winds aloft over
the airport complex.
Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The front we have been watching for a few days is now in the gulf
of alaska and has brought prolonged rain and wind to kodiak
island. This front will continue to move northward today bringing
gale force and near-gale force winds to a large part of the gulf
region. Rain is beginning to move up cook inlet this morning and
to the eastern kenai peninsula. This will be the typical scenario
where coastal areas get a lot of rain being on the windward side
of the mountains with inland areas on the lee side having the rain
largely downsloped out. There is probably enough moisture and
lifting with this system to bring some rain to the western kenai
peninsula northward (including anchorage and the mat-su valleys)
today but the amounts will not be much overall.
A flood watch remains in effect for the seward area from this|
evening through Tuesday morning due to the expected heavy rain.
The only mitigating factor could be if the front moves eastward a
little faster, which is being hinted at by a few of the models.
The flip side is that this may increase the rainfall for the
prince william sound area. The upper level flow is due south (with
lots of moisture) over prince william sound from this afternoon
through Monday night with the upper level low tracking over the
region Tuesday night. In sort, there will be rises in the streams
and rivers around prince william sound and we will be looking at
that closer today to see if any additional products are needed.
Short term forecast southwest alaska (through Tuesday night)
The overhead front will continue to make progress to the north
today. Most areas will see light to moderate rain, ending from
south to north. The gusty easterly winds in the bristol bay area,
mainly through kamishak gap, will continue through the evening
hours before tapering off. While the front passes by the evening
hours, the area still remains underneath cyclonic flow aloft.
Disturbances will continue to propogate through the flow, which
is still a moist one with sub-tropical origins. Most of the
disturbances look pretty tame, with the most organized shortwave
trough riding over the eastern mainland late Monday. Otherwise,
look for cloudy and cooler conditions, mostly seasonable with
light winds (after the front passes today).
Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (through Tuesday night)
Two fronts will be the focus for the forecast this morning. The
first is decaying pretty fast, on a line from roughly the
pribilofs through nikolski. Rain will taper off through the day,
but low ceilings will linger. The second front will continue its
slow march from the western aleutians. Rain and low ceilings will
be the main concern with this front as the winds (sub-gale) will
taper off over the next 24 hours. Behind the second front, broad
cyclonic flow will bring showers and moderate southwesterly winds.
Long term forecast (Wednesday through Saturday)
The long term forecast begins Wednesday morning with a rapidly
weakening surface low over eastern alaska and the copper river
basin exiting the state to the east. Showers will taper off
through the morning from west to east as a transitory ridge builds
in behind the low over southwest and southcentral alaska. This
should lead to a brief period of decent weather over the southern
mainland before the next system rolls into the area from the
bering by Thursday.
A broad low pressure system over the bering will bring increased
winds and waves with rain showers to most of the bering aleutians
through the later half of next week. A front from this system will
push east across the southern mainland over the Thursday Friday
timeframe, though details are murky at this time. Model
disagreement and uncertainty begins to creep in by the weekend
with the GFS showing a high amplitude ridge building in over the
mainland from the bering while the ec keeps the ridge flatter
with a bit more unsettled weather over the area. Ensembles do show
high pressure trying to build in from the north pacific though
the flow becomes more zonal in nature as an upper level low tries
to push down from the arctic. For now, trended towards the more
unsettled solution until models show better agreement on the
building ridge next weekend.
Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood watch... 125.
Marine... Gales... 130 131 139
synopsis and model discussion... Rja tm
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ml
long term... Kvp
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