Thursday, May23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
St. George, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:51AMSunset 11:01PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 11:07 PM AKDT (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AK
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location: 57.89, -167.17     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230056
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
456 pm akdt Wed may 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A strong vertically stacked low in the southwestern gulf of
alaska is the main weather feature today. Satellite imagery
depicts this low very well as a textbook curl of clouds in the
southern gulf of alaska. This low aloft has decent upper air
support as it sits in the left exit region of the jet stream. A
second arm of the jet is northwesterly oriented over the western
aleutians where wind is reaching nearly 120 kts at 30,000 ft. At
the surface, a warm front is pushing ahead of the low which is
bringing gusty wind through the passes of the ak-pen, bristol bay
and eastern aleutians. In addition, rain has begun to fall
throughout the ak-pen and kodiak island. On radar, you can easily
detect the frontal boundary in the western gulf as it migrates
northeastward into the south central mainland bringing showers to
the kenai peninsula.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement through Friday as the low in the
southern gulf moves into the northern gulf on Friday morning. On
Friday, models begin to diverge regarding a north pacific low that
is advancing towards the central aleutians. While the overall
impacts from this system are similar, the exact track and strength
is inconsistent. On Friday night, there is very little agreement
as the NAM and ECMWF create a closed low closer to the aleutian
chain while the GFS and canadian maintain a southern position in
the north pacific.

Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Strong turnagain arm wind and
hillside wind is producing llws that should last into the early
evening until the SE wind kicks in at the airfield. The wind gusty
southerly wind are expected again Thursday afternoon, though not
as strong as today.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Wed
afternoon through Fri afternoon)...

a gale force low centered just south of kodiak island will track
along the northern gulf coast overnight tonight before weakening
Thursday morning. Gale force winds can be expected over the barren
islands and through shelikof strait through Thursday morning.

Gusty southeasterly gap winds will pick up this afternoon in the
usual places, including turnagain arm and knik river valley,
before tapering off overnight and recurring again for a brief
period Thursday afternoon. An occluded front associated with this
low extends across the gulf and radar imagery confirms the
northern edge of this front has reached the southern kenai
peninsula this afternoon. As this front continues to push
northward, rain can be expected across the northern gulf coast for
Thursday before gradually tapering off early Friday as both the
front and the low weaken. A brief reprieve in the rain can be
expected for Friday, however another low approaches the
southwestern gulf shore Friday evening.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3; today
through Saturday)...

a low is currently approaching the akpen, bringing moderate rain
and gusty wind along the bristol bay coast north of its
associated warm front. It is expected to weaken as it moves over
kodiak island Thursday morning as the wind will gradually
diminish. However, the cloudy and showery pattern appears likely
to continue through the day, particularly along coastal areas in
the kuskokwim delta where several models are indicating moderate
bands of precipitation. Partly cloudy skies are likely Friday
under the influence of an amplifying ridge over the bering.

Another front will move over the akpen late Friday into Saturday,
bringing a repeat of today's weather to the same aforementioned

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3; today
through Saturday)...

a low is currently moving northward towards the akpen eastern
aleutians and is bringing rain and gusty wind to areas generally
east of and including cold bay. Conditions will improve on
Thursday as the low weakens over kodiak island and a ridge
amplifies over the western bering. An active pattern will develop
late Thursday with another front tracking northward, bringing rain
to the central and eastern aleutians. At the same time, a low
developing near the kamchatka peninsula will bring moderate rain
over the western aleutians. The showery pattern looks to continue
through the weekend.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Winds in the 30 to 35 kt range are likely with the frontal system
lifting north across the alaska peninsula and into the southwestern
gulf Friday and Friday night. Additionally, gales are also possible
in association the deepening surface low that swings through bristol
bay on Saturday and with the portion of the front over the western
gulf, supported by a strengthening triple point low near kodiak
island. As the front lifts further north Saturday night and
Sunday, easterly winds may also increase into the 30 to 35 kt
range along the northern gulf coast and prince william sound

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Confidence continues to increase in a transition to a much wetter
pattern starting Friday night and Saturday. The upper level ridge
in the gulf amplifies and shifts east to merges with the ridge
centered over northwest canada to form a substantial blocking
feature that by Saturday will stretch from around 30n, across the
eastern gulf and southeast alaska panhandle through northwest
canada and into northern alaska. To the west, a deep elongated
trough will form, extending south from an upper level low in the
southeastern bering. A resulting long southerly fetch of tropical
moisture will feed the frontal system lifting north into southern
alaska Friday night and Saturday bringing both heavy rain to the
coastal areas as well as widespread wetting rains further inland.

As we progress into the weekend, models are showing the areas of
heaviest rain which will initially push across the alaska
peninsula and kodiak island Friday night through Saturday morning,
shifting more to the north over the kenai peninsula Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night and over prince william sound

The upper levels will shift gradually to a more southeasterly
flow pattern through the first half of next week with the upper
low centered south of the alaska peninsula and the big ridge
further inland over western canada but still tilting to the west
into northern alaska. For southern alaska the result will be a
less continuous stream of warm, high content moisture air but
still an active, wet pattern with numerous frontal systems
tracking through the gulf and inland.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 120 130 131 132 138 150 174 352.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra
southcentral alaska... Ko dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Jr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.