Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:21AMSunset 11:44PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:07 PM AKDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AK
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location: 57.89, -167.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 290112
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
512 pm akdt Wed jun 28 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor satellite imagery shows two closed low pressure
systems impacting southern alaska and surrounding waters this
afternoon. The newest closed low formed quickly overnight as
shortwave energy rounded the base the broad trough that expands
across the bering to the central gulf of alaska. This low center
was located approximately 200 miles south of kodiak island early
this afternoon and is advecting abundant subtropical moisture
over the gulf and across bristol bay. Rain developing along the
surface low associated with this system, is along a band stretching
across the central gulf to kodiak island to the aleutian range.

Gusty small craft winds have increased along the this boundary
from the south and east directions. Visibilities reductions along
the frontal band are less than one mile as indicated by automated
stations from kodiak island.

To the west, the second upper low is a mature system spinning 250
miles north of saint paul island. This stacked system is losing
momentum on it northward track as it dissociates from the
subtropical jet which lies near 45n. Low clouds and patchy fog
encompass the bering along with a few showers as weak shortwaves
circulate around the core.

Model discussion
Models are in general agreement through Friday however they are
lacking in agreement between on refined details of precipitation
timing and coverage. The main edits for in the short term were
focused on rain chances during the next two days as this is the
main challenge for the end of the week.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the next taf
package. Gusty south flow tapers off late this evening, remaining
light through Thursday afternoon. Rain spreads into anchorage from
the gulf later this evening and continues through Thursday as a
weak boundary stalls across the region.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts another impressive surge
of pacific moisture moving north toward the gulf coast in
association with a left-exit region of the subtropical jet
stream. Rain will work inland starting from the kenai peninsula
then into anchorage and the susitna valley by tomorrow. The
matanuska valley may see a bit more downslope flow, so for now,
the best chances of rain will be from anchorage south and then
northward toward the alaska range. Strong gap winds down turnagain
arm will weaken tonight as the pressure gradient bends the wind
down-inlet. The front will weaken along the coast Thursday night
and Friday with precipitation tending to favor the coast. Inland
drying will result in slightly warming temperatures Friday and
Saturday, and possibly some breaks of sun.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
We remain in this pattern of the upper low over the central bering
sea rotating pulses of energy around it along the aleutians to the
bering sea coast. One such pulse is now pushing through the
kuskokwim delta today producing widespread rain. This trough moves
north out of the kuskokwim delta region by this evening. The
overall flow weakens this evening and we should see a break in the
rain. In bristol bay, moisture from a low moving north into the
western gulf of alaska will spread across the aleutian mountains
and alaska range tonight increasing the chance for rain. The cross
barrier flow is not very strong, but we will likely see less rain
on the lee side of the mountains while the kilbuck and ahklun
mountains will see heavier rain Thursday. Thursday night and
Friday the gulf low will weaken and move across the eastern alaska
peninsula into bristol bay. Therefore we expect a continuation of
the wet cool weather over the bristol bay zone Friday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The persistent bering sea low will remain the dominant feature for
the weather through Friday. It will move to the northwest as it
weakens, thus wind along the aleutian islands will diminish. A
low forming south of the western aleutians becomes entrained in
the flow of the bering sea low and will rapidly move along the
aleutians to the alaska peninsula as an open trough by Friday. The
main impact of this system will be increase rain potential.

Following this weak system we have yet another storm moving into
the western bering sea Friday. The front will move through the
western aleutians Friday bringing minimum gale force wind as it
does.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Long term models have not come into any closer agreement than they
were yesterday on the timing or placement of low pressure systems
in the bering sea and gulf of alaska. The same general pattern
continues with a strong jet streak diving into the western gulf of
alaska Sunday night, however the models diverge greatly on surface low
development and movement. GFS favors a further north solution
while ec pushes the low further south along the gulf of alaska
border. Both models continue to favor a wet Sunday and Monday for
most of the mainland but GFS does harbor some hope that things
might dry out a little bit for the Tuesday holiday. Meanwhile in
the aleutians, model variability is high, with ec indicating a
rainy low pressure system moving through, and GFS indicating broad
westerly flow with significantly less precip. By Tuesday
afternoon, both models move a ridge into the eastern bering, which
would dry things out in western alaska for the evening of the 4th
of july. Current thinking is to not adjust the long term
forecast, which would continue to bring rain through the early
part of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 119 120 131.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kh
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Sa
long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.