Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lions, AK

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 8:02PM Friday September 21, 2018 8:35 AM AKDT (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:42PMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 336 Am Akdt Fri Sep 21 2018
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK
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location: 57.98, -152.75     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 211237
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
437 am akdt Fri sep 21 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper-level low continues to drift north towards the brooks
range this morning. A weak shortwave (and surface frontal
boundary) on the southern periphery of the low is moving across
the alaska range helping maintain a cyclonic flow across the
northern half of southcentral alaska. This has allowed clouds and
isolated showers to linger across portions of southcentral early
this morning, especially along eastern portions of the susitna
valley and across the copper river basin.

Farther west, southwest flow behind the low over the interior and
ahead of a quickly advancing frontal system has also kept low
stratus and isolated showers across interior sections of
southwest alaska. Along the coast southeast of bethel, rain is
beginning to fall as the frontal system approaches. Low stratus
is also developing over the southern half of cook inlet as evident
by the low ceilings reported at homer and intermittent fog at
kenai. Patchy fog is again possible this morning elsewhere around
the kenai peninsula and in the susitna valley where breaks in the
cloud cover have allowed overnight temperatures to cool into the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Overall, the main player in the weather continues to be the gale-
force low in the bering, where wind gusts in excess of 40 kts have
been reported from the central aleutians north to the pribilofs.

The gusty southerly winds and widespread rainfall will continue
across the eastern half of the bering, eastern aleutians, akpen,
and west coast this morning. As the occluded front moves onshore
later today, rain and gusty winds will overspread the southwest
mainland, eventually reaching southcentral alaska by Friday
evening.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement with the evolution of the frontal
system moving through southwest and southcentral alaska on Friday.

Because of this, there remains high confidence with both the
rainfall forecast throughout the day Friday and into Saturday and
the in the development of southerly gap winds along turnagain arm
and through the copper river basin. The models are also improving
in regards to the development and track of a secondary wave that
develops south of the akpen then moves northeast along the eastern
coast of kodiak island and toward the western half of prince
william sound. Although the potential track is being handles
better by the models, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in
the timing and location of additional rainfall along the southern
coast for the end of the weekend. In summary, there high
confidence in the rain forecast for this first event, but
confidence decreases significantly for the second event on Sunday.

Aviation
Panc... GenerallyVFR conditions with light winds will continue
through this morning. Ceilings are then expected to fall to MVFR
beginning this afternoon as rain moves into the region, which is
expected to persist at the terminal into Saturday. Gusty southerly
winds will also develop over the airport complex beginning Friday
afternoon and continue into Saturday.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through
3... Friday through Sunday)... A fairly vigorous low in the bering
will send a front into southcentral from the west today. Rain
chances will increase from west to east today as the front
approaches. With the flow aloft becoming southwest tonight,
conditions will be favorable to give measurable rain to much of
southcentral. Conditions will also get a bit breezy through
turnagain arm and the copper river basin as the surface gradient
increases due to the low in the bering combined with high pressure
to the east. A triple point low will develop south of the kenai
peninsula on Saturday and rapidly move east, which will help to
diminish the winds. The front will move east into canada by
Saturday afternoon, but with the flow aloft still from the
southwest some showers will linger over most of the area.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Friday
through Sunday)... The front across the west coast makes eastward
progress to the alaska and aleutian ranges during the afternoon.

Gusty winds and rain develop along the frontal boundary with the
strongest winds expected across the kuskokwim delta. Showers
continue through the weekend as low pressure loses momentum and
slowly fills on its tracks inland across the yukon delta.

Southerly flow tapers down behind the front, however gusts
increase again Saturday through early Sunday as colder air advects
inland along westerly flow.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through
3... Friday through Sunday)... Low pressure across the bering
remains dominant through the weekend keeping an ongoing active
weather pattern. Gusty southerly gale force winds along the front
taper down as they back to west in the wake of the front. A
significant short wave pulls a colder air mass around the core of
the low on its eastward track toward the coast on Saturday. This
increases winds again across the eastern bering, the wind then
tapers off Saturday night with the low moving inland. Several
disturbances move through the flow aloft from the kamchatka
peninsula and the north pacific throughout the weekend which
brings higher chances for rain.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Sunday night through
Thursday)...

the long-term forecast starts out Sunday night with a low near
norton sound and a secondary one tracking across the western gulf.

As usual for this time frame, the smaller the detail, the greater
the uncertainty. The low over norton sound remains nearly
stationary there, bringing waves of precipitation across southwest
alaska. Meanwhile the low near kodiak tracks to near prince
william sound during the day Monday. The lows will bring in
slightly cooler air to the region as mid-level air temperatures
drop just below freezing. This could allow for these lows to
produce some termination dust across the peaks early next week.

Otherwise, plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures warm
enough at night to keep any frost freeze concerns at bay for now.

On Tuesday the norton sound low begins to move northward allowing
for some high pressure with somewhat cooler air to move into the
area, particularly southwest alaska. Widespread lows in the 30s
are likely for southwest alaska if this scenario pans out Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

Then on Wednesday, all the models bring a fairly strong low
northward out of the pacific towards southwest alaska. However,
the tracks of the low between the models are disparate enough that
future model runs are needed to better clarify the track, and
thus who can expect the greatest impacts from it. For now, most of
the models keep the low off the bering coast, which in addition
to another round of rain would also bring another slug of warm
air to southern alaska by Thursday. Thus, other than the brief
cool-down Monday and especially Tuesday, truly autumn-like air
looks to remain absent from the forecast through next week, and
possibly through the end of september. This forecast would
solidify september 2018 as one of, if not the warmest september on
record in southern alaska.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning... 155 165 170 172 179 180 181 185 412 414.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 21 mi42 min SSW 1 G 5.1 49°F 55°F1018.2 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 76 mi46 min SW 16 G 18 52°F 53°F2 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.3)50°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 77 mi36 min N 6 G 8 53°F 1017 hPa (-1.1)41°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK20 mi43 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4CalmW5SE6SE6NE8NE6NE4NE3NW6NW4NW5W3W4W4W6W4CalmW4W6W5NW5W4
1 day agoSW6NW12NW9NW5NW8NW9CalmE8NE4NE3CalmCalmW3W5W5NW3W6W6W6W8W5W7NW8W7
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3E4E4NE3NE4NE4E4E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W4SW3W4SW3CalmS3W8

Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.