Marine Weather and Tides
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.
|Sunrise 7:42AM||Sunset 8:02PM||Friday September 21, 2018 8:35 AM AKDT (16:35 UTC)||Moonrise 5:42PM||Moonset 1:36AM||Illumination 89%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxak68 pafc 211237|
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
437 am akdt Fri sep 21 2018
Analysis and upper levels
An upper-level low continues to drift north towards the brooks
range this morning. A weak shortwave (and surface frontal
boundary) on the southern periphery of the low is moving across
the alaska range helping maintain a cyclonic flow across the
northern half of southcentral alaska. This has allowed clouds and
isolated showers to linger across portions of southcentral early
this morning, especially along eastern portions of the susitna
valley and across the copper river basin.
Farther west, southwest flow behind the low over the interior and
ahead of a quickly advancing frontal system has also kept low
stratus and isolated showers across interior sections of
southwest alaska. Along the coast southeast of bethel, rain is
beginning to fall as the frontal system approaches. Low stratus
is also developing over the southern half of cook inlet as evident
by the low ceilings reported at homer and intermittent fog at
kenai. Patchy fog is again possible this morning elsewhere around
the kenai peninsula and in the susitna valley where breaks in the
cloud cover have allowed overnight temperatures to cool into the
upper 30s to mid 40s.
Overall, the main player in the weather continues to be the gale-
force low in the bering, where wind gusts in excess of 40 kts have
been reported from the central aleutians north to the pribilofs.
The gusty southerly winds and widespread rainfall will continue
across the eastern half of the bering, eastern aleutians, akpen,
and west coast this morning. As the occluded front moves onshore
later today, rain and gusty winds will overspread the southwest
mainland, eventually reaching southcentral alaska by Friday
Models remain in good agreement with the evolution of the frontal
system moving through southwest and southcentral alaska on Friday.
Because of this, there remains high confidence with both the
rainfall forecast throughout the day Friday and into Saturday and
the in the development of southerly gap winds along turnagain arm
and through the copper river basin. The models are also improving
in regards to the development and track of a secondary wave that
develops south of the akpen then moves northeast along the eastern
coast of kodiak island and toward the western half of prince
william sound. Although the potential track is being handles
better by the models, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in
the timing and location of additional rainfall along the southern
coast for the end of the weekend. In summary, there high
confidence in the rain forecast for this first event, but
confidence decreases significantly for the second event on Sunday.
Panc... GenerallyVFR conditions with light winds will continue
through this morning. Ceilings are then expected to fall to MVFR
beginning this afternoon as rain moves into the region, which is
expected to persist at the terminal into Saturday. Gusty southerly
winds will also develop over the airport complex beginning Friday
afternoon and continue into Saturday.
.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through
3... Friday through Sunday)... A fairly vigorous low in the bering
will send a front into southcentral from the west today. Rain
chances will increase from west to east today as the front
approaches. With the flow aloft becoming southwest tonight,
conditions will be favorable to give measurable rain to much of
southcentral. Conditions will also get a bit breezy through
turnagain arm and the copper river basin as the surface gradient
increases due to the low in the bering combined with high pressure
to the east. A triple point low will develop south of the kenai
peninsula on Saturday and rapidly move east, which will help to
diminish the winds. The front will move east into canada by
Saturday afternoon, but with the flow aloft still from the|
southwest some showers will linger over most of the area.
Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Friday
through Sunday)... The front across the west coast makes eastward
progress to the alaska and aleutian ranges during the afternoon.
Gusty winds and rain develop along the frontal boundary with the
strongest winds expected across the kuskokwim delta. Showers
continue through the weekend as low pressure loses momentum and
slowly fills on its tracks inland across the yukon delta.
Southerly flow tapers down behind the front, however gusts
increase again Saturday through early Sunday as colder air advects
inland along westerly flow.
.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through
3... Friday through Sunday)... Low pressure across the bering
remains dominant through the weekend keeping an ongoing active
weather pattern. Gusty southerly gale force winds along the front
taper down as they back to west in the wake of the front. A
significant short wave pulls a colder air mass around the core of
the low on its eastward track toward the coast on Saturday. This
increases winds again across the eastern bering, the wind then
tapers off Saturday night with the low moving inland. Several
disturbances move through the flow aloft from the kamchatka
peninsula and the north pacific throughout the weekend which
brings higher chances for rain.
.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Sunday night through
the long-term forecast starts out Sunday night with a low near
norton sound and a secondary one tracking across the western gulf.
As usual for this time frame, the smaller the detail, the greater
the uncertainty. The low over norton sound remains nearly
stationary there, bringing waves of precipitation across southwest
alaska. Meanwhile the low near kodiak tracks to near prince
william sound during the day Monday. The lows will bring in
slightly cooler air to the region as mid-level air temperatures
drop just below freezing. This could allow for these lows to
produce some termination dust across the peaks early next week.
Otherwise, plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures warm
enough at night to keep any frost freeze concerns at bay for now.
On Tuesday the norton sound low begins to move northward allowing
for some high pressure with somewhat cooler air to move into the
area, particularly southwest alaska. Widespread lows in the 30s
are likely for southwest alaska if this scenario pans out Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.
Then on Wednesday, all the models bring a fairly strong low
northward out of the pacific towards southwest alaska. However,
the tracks of the low between the models are disparate enough that
future model runs are needed to better clarify the track, and
thus who can expect the greatest impacts from it. For now, most of
the models keep the low off the bering coast, which in addition
to another round of rain would also bring another slug of warm
air to southern alaska by Thursday. Thus, other than the brief
cool-down Monday and especially Tuesday, truly autumn-like air
looks to remain absent from the forecast through next week, and
possibly through the end of september. This forecast would
solidify september 2018 as one of, if not the warmest september on
record in southern alaska.
Afc watches warnings advisories
Marine... Gale warning... 155 165 170 172 179 180 181 185 412 414.
Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Jw
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK||21 mi||42 min||SSW 1 G 5.1||49°F||55°F||1018.2 hPa|
|46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK||76 mi||46 min||SW 16 G 18||52°F||53°F||2 ft||1018.3 hPa (-1.3)||50°F|
|AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK||77 mi||36 min||N 6 G 8||53°F||1017 hPa (-1.1)||41°F|
Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK||20 mi||43 min||WNW 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||48°F||45°F||89%||1018.2 hPa|
Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||Calm||E||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||W||W||W||NW||W||W||W||W||W||W||NW||W|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||SE||E||E||NE||NE||NE||E||E||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||W||W||SW||W||SW||Calm||S||W |
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