Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Elfin Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:50PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:15 AM AKDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 405 Am Akdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..E wind 15 kt becoming sw. Seas 5 ft. S swell in the afternoon. Showers.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 5 ft. S swell. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less late.
Mon..Light winds. Seas 5 ft. S swell. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Mon night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elfin Cove, AK
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location: 58.08, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232318
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
318 pm akdt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis A front will move in off the gulf and spread heavy
rain across portions of the panhandle through Saturday night.

Another low will cross over the southern panhandle on Sunday

Short term Saturday evening through Sunday night ... Satellite
imagery is indicating a front located over the central gulf.

Deformation in the frontal cloud shield is also indicating the
development of what appears to be a triple point low west of the
southern outer coast. Infrared cloud top temperatures of -60c and
satellite based microwave rain rate information are all suggestive
of heavy rain in the associated front. Models all support these
things elements as well. Lightning was observed late last night
and earlier today well to the west over the central gulf, but none
has been observed this afternoon. Modeled lifted index and cape
not conducive for more lightning this afternoon or tonight. Still,
very cold cloud tops warrant caution. And so, have opted to
retain a slight chance of thunderstorms over the eastern gulf in
marine zone 310.

Showers already have, or will soon, transitioned to rain with no
break in precipitation. Rain will be heavy at times, particularly
over the southern half of the panhandle. 36 hour forecast storm
totals ranging from around 1 2 inch to more than 2 inches with the
heaviest amounts over the southern inner channels. Some models
are suggesting that even more precipitation is possible. As such,
this represents the most critical element of the afternoon
forecast and there will be responses from area creeks and streams.

No flooding is expected at this time, as this front will move
through fairly quickly. Look for updates from this office as this
event unfolds.

Winds associate with this front will be limited to small craft
intensity. Have small craft advisories for portions of the outer
coast as well as cross sound, clarence strait, and northern lynn
canal. Winds will increase and become gusty from south to north
and from outside to inside as the front moves onshore beginning
late this evening over the southern inner channels, late tonight
over the central inner channels, and finally tomorrow morning from
the icy strait corridor and northward. Post frontal winds and
gusts will be less.

A few tweaks to winds to highlight gusty conditions associate with
the front's progress north. Updated pop and QPF using some of the
nam, GFS and SREF to capture the details associated with the
deformation associated with the developing triple point.

Otherwise, no significant changes made to the previous forecast.

Overall forecast confidence is average.

Long term Monday through Saturday... An upper level shortwave,
developing from a parent circulation with its center positioned
near the aleutians, will propagate across the northeastern gulf
and lift across the panhandle Sunday night into early Monday
morning. A subtropical jet feature will assist with advecting
additional moisture with this system, but most of the
precipitation increases will primarily be confined to the more
southern portions of the panhandle. A ridge of high pressure will
then begin to build over the eastern gulf Monday. We should start
to see most locations across the panhandle dry out for the day.

Fog development may be a possibility, especially during the
morning commute on Monday, so we'll continue to monitor this
trend for subsequent forecasts. The ridge should then begin to
weaken and retreat east before another shortwave develops and
progresses northeast across the gulf, impacting the panhandle on
Tuesday. Models continue to show additional subtropical jet setups
to assist with pushing additional moisture over the panhandle.

This type of pattern appears poised to continue through the
remainder of next week, with additional shortwaves that develop
out of the parent trough over the gulf. Due to this tropical
moisture push over the area, we expect chances of precipitation to
remain high through the week and temperatures to maybe be
slightly above average, especially in southern areas.

For adjustments to the forecast, we updated pops with a blend of
the ECMWF and canadian, relying more on the ec, to continue to
show the increasing precipitation trend through the week. We also
increased winds throughout the eastern gulf waters to account for
the tighter pressure gradient that develops with the subsequent
shortwaves that progress out of the parent circulation. A lot of
uncertainty will then remain regarding the synoptic pattern after
about day 8.

Aviation Phone line problems in yakutat are preventing the asos
obs from being disseminated. Had to nil the TAF there due to
deteriorating weather tonight and loss of useful webcam views by
sunset 0311z . Continued very low CIGS vsbys across panhandle in
our very moist air mass. Wind shear mentioned in southern
panhandle tafs overnight tonight with vigorous short wave moving
quickly through southern areas overnight. Rain changes to showers
during the day Sun with gradual stabilization. Outlook for
mon... Possible dense fog impacting TAF sites.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-022-036-041-043-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051.

Fritsch voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 9 mi65 min E 12 G 14 50°F 50°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 14 mi45 min 51°F 53°F1005.9 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 44 mi49 min Calm G 1 50°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--5--5--5--6----Calm--------------------Calm--Calm
1 day ago----Calm5--5--W7--5----------------------Calm--5
2 days ago--Calm--W7--W7--W8--W8----------------------NW5--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Bingham, Cross Sound, Alaska
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Cape Bingham
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Sun -- 04:03 AM AKDT     9.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM AKDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:57 PM AKDT     10.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:33 PM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for North Inian Pass, Cross Sound, Alaska Current
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North Inian Pass
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Sun -- 01:27 AM AKDT     2.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:44 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM AKDT     -5.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:52 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:36 PM AKDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:50 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:16 PM AKDT     -5.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:28 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.