Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Elfin Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday April 26, 2018 1:18 AM AKDT (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 312 Pm Akdt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory due to seas through late tonight...
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt becoming light late. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
Thu..Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Periods of rain.
Thu night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell.
Fri..W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell.
Fri night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon..W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elfin Cove, AK
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location: 58.08, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 252205
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
205 pm akdt Wed apr 25 2018

Short term Large upper low continues to spin late this
afternoon over the bering sea while upper ridging is building
along the bc coast. Between these two systems is the remnants of
the front that brought 1.5 to 2 inches of rain to the yakutat area
last night. This front is little more than a weak surface trough
but SW flow aloft continues to advect a narrow stream of moisture
over the northern central panhandle as evidenced by pw values
around 1 inch on GOES blended pw imagery. Southern areas have seen
partly to mostly sunny skies today with temperatures warming into
the mid 50s while the corridor from sitka to gustavus juneau as
seen chilly light rain with temperatures in the mid 40s.

Guidance indicates that the mid upper ridge will continue to build
through Thursday. This will prevent the weak surface front from
advancing any further south. Instead, one or two weak waves will
run along the front through Thursday morning, keeping light
precipitation going through mid day Thursday in roughly the same
area as today. The front will eventually weaken and dissipate by
Thursday night as surface ridging begins to develop over the gulf.

With continued weak onshore flow in the 925 to 850 mb layer
through Thursday, going to be hard to scour out the low level
moisture. Even Thursday night, as the flow turns nw'ly, while we
may dry out, clouds will likely hang around especially along the
coast and the northern central panhandle.

Sw winds are currently gusting to 40 mph in the skagway area with
25 kt southerly winds in N lynn canal. As the stronger SW flow
aloft diminishes this evening, expect these winds to diminish. By
Thursday morning, light winds are expected in most areas as the
gradient GOES to almost nil. Kept 15 kt southerlies in lynn canal
Thursday afternoon due to thermal gradient but otherwise winds
should become more nw'ly by Thursday night as surface ridging
builds over the gulf.

Overall models are in good agreement and forecast confidence is
above average.

Long term Friday through Wednesday ... A large surface high
will be centered south of the aleutians at the start of this long
range forecast period. Prominent ridge axis extends northeast
diagonally across the gulf. Farther north, a low near the bering
strait will be pushing a front east across the southern portion of
the state and along the northern periphery of the surface ridge.

Models are currently in significantly better agreement with this
set-up and changes were made in the extended forecast to reflect
this. Main change has been to increase the likelihood of rain from
Friday onward. The front referenced above will not make much
eastward progress beyond CAPE fairweather. However, a second
frontal feature will cross the central gulf beginning Saturday and
arrive along the central southern outer coast by Sunday morning.

A third front will cross the gulf on Sunday and spread rain across
all of the panhandle Sunday night.

With the increases to pop and based on model spectrum spreads,
decided to diminish daytime highs slightly. Overnight lows were
adjusted up even less. Net effect will be a diminished diurnal
range over the coming week.

Blended gfs, ecmwf, and the canadian nh for pressure through
Sunday night. Used canadian nh winds as a foundation through
Friday night, then primarily gfs. Preferred the SREF pop field
early on, but then favored the upper level pattern depicted in gfs
for the second and third fronts and how they interact with the
surface ridge.

Forecast confidence in a continued wet pattern for the upcoming
week remains lower than average but is increasing.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 4 pm akdt this afternoon for akz018.

Strong wind from 6 pm to 10 pm akdt this evening for akz018.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-041>043-051>053.

Del fritsch
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 9 mi68 min S 8.9 G 14 43°F 1026.4 hPa43°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 14 mi48 min 42°F 1025.1 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 44 mi52 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------------------4--SW7--SW10--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm
1 day ago----------------------SW7--SW8--SW6--W10--W6--W5--Calm
2 days ago----------------------E10--S12--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Bingham, Cross Sound, Alaska
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Cape Bingham
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Thu -- 05:05 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:14 AM AKDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:07 AM AKDT     9.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:25 PM AKDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:44 PM AKDT     10.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for North Inian Pass, Cross Sound, Alaska Current
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North Inian Pass
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Thu -- 01:57 AM AKDT     -4.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:04 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:38 AM AKDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:39 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM AKDT     -5.26 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:29 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM AKDT     3.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:17 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.