Sunrise 4:26 AM   Sunset 9:21 PM Moonrise 10:53 AM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 425 Pm Akdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Thu - W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.Thu night - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fri - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 152258 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 258 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

SHORT TERM
First off, a little recap over the previous 18 hours. The consistent rainfall in the north was somewhat surprising Tuesday night. Digging into it this morning, our somewhat moist occluded front, orographic lift from southwest flow, and some vorticity aloft helped keep sustained rain over the Juneau area through the night. 12 and 24 hour amounts are still below 1 inch, but a bit more than forecasted.

This afternoon these ingredients are becoming increasingly scarce as the parent trough aloft begins its journey southeast, with the low fully dissipating later this evening and widespread precipitation tapering off. Upstream a surface ridge is building into the Gulf, helping to establish northwest flow along our coast and continuing to push moisture further south.

For Thursday morning a low marine layer is expected in portions of the region, mainly along and south of Icy Strait. The main forecast challenge today is the development of patchy fog but confidence is low. As we move through the afternoon expecting a nice day to develop, a moderate northwest breeze along our coast, and sea breezes developing through the interior Panhandle. Another weak system moves into the Gulf Friday, more details in the long term.

LONG TERM
/Friday into the weekend/...Unfortunately the surface ridge that will be moving into the panhandle through the day Thursday appears to be more transient in nature, as a weak surface low is set to move into the northern gulf on Friday. Good news is that with a lack of upper level support, this system is expected to be dissipating as it progresses south and eastward.
This means still a low chance of light precipitation for the panhandle, primarily expected for the southern outer coast.
However, this does mean even places that stay dry could still see some more cloud cover. Overall still good for outdoor activities as temperatures are expected to range from low to mid 50s in the north to around 60 in the south to start the weekend. Also, with the dissipating low and transient ridge, still not expecting significant winds aside from a brief coastal jet heading into Cross Sound on the north side of another ridge Saturday into Sunday, though only expecting winds reaching around 20 kt with higher gusts.

Another transient ridge will move in behind the decaying low Friday into Saturday, with models beginning to diverge in their solutions for the start of the week in terms of timing and strength of the next system moving into the gulf Sunday. While onshore flow is likely to continue throughout this period, low confidence in terms of timing for any moderate precipitation returning to the panhandle.
Overall can expect a wet start to next week whether the rain arrives Sunday night, or first half of the day Monday.

AVIATION
/ Through Thursday afternoon / Ceilings primarily above 3500 feet across Southeast East Alaska Wednesday afternoon and evening with a few locales between 2500 and 3000 feet.
Scattered to numerous showers however hardly impacting visibilities. Am not anticipating large changes in the ceiling heights, potentially some lowering overnight where 2000 to 3000 ceilings could be found. A second possibility is that with moisture, some morning patchy fog developing which could impact some locals to near 18z Thursday morning. The fog locales could very well be diverse.

MARINE
Gulf and coastal waters.
Changes: Increased winds west of Dall Island.
Buoys along our coast highlight a southwest swell 4 to 7 ft near 8 to 10 seconds and light winds. Expect this trend to continue through tonight before a ridge moves into the Gulf Thursday morning bringing northwest winds. For areas north of Cape Edgecumbe, expecting a moderate-to-fresh breeze (15 to 21 knots)
but western Cross sound will see some slightly higher winds develop. As we move towards Cape Ommaney south into Dixon, expect a northwest strong breeze Thursday (22-27 knots). This will bring fresh short period northwest seas riding over southwest swell, but significant heights still remain under 8ft.

Inner Channels: Changes: increased winds a bit Thursday evening near Pt.
Couverden and Lynn for southerly sea breeze.

Main threats over the next 36 hours continue to be some patchy fog forming in portions of the Panhandle Thursday morning but confidence is low in this threat. Expect any fog to burn off by Thursday late morning and light winds in the central and north.
Moving into Thursday late afternoon expect a sea breeze to develop but sustained winds continue to come in under 20 knots for most areas. Be aware of some elevated winds near Pt. Couverden into Lynn Canal developing in the late afternoon. Certainly a great day to see if any halibut are out.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.

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Flynn Cove
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Wed -- 01:17 AM AKDT     6.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:19 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:49 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM AKDT     10.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:53 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:53 PM AKDT     2.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:39 PM AKDT     11.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Flynn Cove, Icy Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

Hoonah Harbor, Port Frederick, Icy Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

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