Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Karluk, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:47AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 8:34 PM AKST (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 304 Pm Akst Wed Jan 17 2018
Tonight..N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Mon..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Karluk, AK
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location: 58.29, -154.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180138
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
438 pm akst Wed jan 17 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low is slowly weakening as it spins over
kodiak island. Showers continue along much of the gulf coast,
kodiak island, and bristol bay. Slightly cooler low level air
which came all the way around the south side of the low is now
beginning to wrap around the top of the low across southcentral,
though precipitation-type remains rain for most of the region.

Some remaining warm aloft is also producing a mix of snow and
freezing rain from king salmon northeastward to iliamna, with
all snow south and west of kind salmon. Colder air is slowly
filtering in from the west which will change everything back
to snow. Cold air advection across the eastern bering sea and
alaska peninsula is leading to snow showers and gusty winds.

Out west, a gale force low is tracking northward just west of
the westernmost aleutian islands with an occluded front lifting
northward into the southern bering sea. Building heights out
ahead of this storm system are the beginning of what will
develop into a strong blocking ridge over the bering sea later
this week. This will lead to a major shift in pattern, with
arctic air pouring southward across the eastern bering sea
and much of mainland alaska.

Model discussion
Models are in very good agreement with large scale features and
forecast confidence remains above average. The primary challenge
will be dealing with the remnants of the low over kodiak and
precipitation over southwest alaska, with abundant low level
moisture favorable for low ceilings and fog.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The llws that
had been in the forecast for this afternoon was removed as
turnagain winds developed weaker than initially expected with no
sheer layer on recent acars soundings.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A transitional pattern begins tonight as the gulf low weakens
into an open wave with the remnant trough stretching across the
southern mainland between two building ridges. Winds are expected
to be relatively light across the southern mainland through Friday
as the bering ridge slowly evolves into the dominant synoptic
influence. The trough over the southern mainland helps to pull the
colder arctic air toward southcentral and the gulf through the
end of the work week. A few breaks in the clouds are expected,
however the weak low continuously streams clouds overhead which
also prevents large temperature drops.

Over the gulf, southeasterly flow changes to north and west
tonight and remains to be low impact as the trough moves to the
eastern kenai through Thursday night and meanders in the vicinity
through Friday. The next north pacific low tracks south of the
alaska peninsula early Friday, continuing on a due east path
through the day. Flow across the gulf will be light and variable
during this time as the low is relatively weak.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
A low near kodiak is continuing to support sufficient upper level
deformation for widespread snow (with a little rain at times)
across southwest alaska with the exception of the kuskokwim delta
coast. The heaviest snow band stretches from the alaska peninsula
to the nushagak hills. This will continue through the overnight
before deformation weakens Thursday and snow becomes relegated to
the alaska peninsula. Thereafter, cold offshore flow increases
dramatically with the net result being colder and drier weather
Thursday night into the weekend.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
A gale force low over the western bering will continue to weaken
with the associated front stalling southwest of the pribilof
islands. Another low over kodiak island will continue to support
broad northwest flow over the eastern half of the bering sea
through Thursday before weakening. Thereafter, ridging will build
over the bering sea allowing for the flow to switch to a more
easterly direction over most of the bering sea.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast is still on track today with models in good
agreement showing a major pattern shift beginning this weekend. A
high amplitude blocking ridge will develop over the western bering
which will cause a longwave trough to descend south across the
state by Sunday. The trough will drag brutally cold, eye lash
freezing air down from siberia, where temperatures were recorded
as low as -80f earlier this week. This will lead to a significant
cold air outbreak over most of interior and western portions of
the state next week. Temperatures across interior sections could
drop into the -30s and -40s by Monday with locations along the
bristol bay coast dropping into the negative single digits or even
negative teens. Though this is not shaping up to be a record
breaking event, temperatures will be noticeably colder than it
has been all winter, especially when factoring in the expected brisk
northerly winds, which could drop wind chills as low as -50
across interior portions of SW alaska.

Southcentral looks to escape the brunt of the cold air as the
alaska range will block the cold core to the north and west sides
of the range. In fact, a weak surface low looks to develop in the
gulf by Tuesday which could bring periods of light dry snow to
the mountains and communities along the prince william sound from
Tuesday through the end of the week, which should also pump in a
little bit warmer air from the south helping to moderate
temperatures across southcentral a bit. An upper level low looks
to drop out of the arctic around mid week bringing another
reinforcing shot of cold air to the state. The low center should
track south across the western half of the state, which would
again concentrate the coldest air to SW alaska. If the low tracks
more to the east, as shown in previous GFS runs, cold arctic air
could make its way into southcentral, though models seem to be
agreeing more on the western track of the low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 178
heavy freezing spray 180 181
synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi45 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 42°F2 ft991.5 hPa (+1.6)38°F
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 90 mi35 min ENE 14 G 17 38°F 994.7 hPa (+0.8)38°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 96 mi47 min WNW 9.9 G 14 36°F 39°F991.4 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Aguchik Island, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Aguchik Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:27 AM AKST     13.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:15 AM AKST     3.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:34 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:01 PM AKST     14.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:18 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:38 PM AKST     -1.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
58.611.613.313.311.99.56.74.33.13.65.58.311.213.414.313.511.27.94.31-1.1-1.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kukak, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Kukak
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:23 AM AKST     13.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:14 AM AKST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:57 PM AKST     14.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:17 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:37 PM AKST     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.28.711.613.21311.596.13.72.42.957.91113.314.113.2117.84.21.1-0.8-1.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.