Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Karluk, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 9:31PM Thursday April 18, 2019 8:36 AM AKDT (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 359 Am Akdt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory tonight...
Today..W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tonight..W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Karluk, AK
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location: 58.29, -154.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 181301
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
501 am akdt Thu apr 18 2019

Analysis and upper levels
An upper-level low centered over norton sound is creating broad
cyclonic flow over much of the southern mainland, aleutians and
bering. A series of shortwaves aloft are moving through the flow
around the low. On the backside of this system, cold air is
advecting over the bering and aleutians, and is pushing into the
western gulf of alaska. At the mid-levels, temperatures are well
below freezing in this cold pool. A surface low in the western
gulf of alaska sits at the base of a horizontally aligned
shortwave, creating easterly flow along the northern gulf.

Scattered snow showers are falling throughout the southwestern
mainland, aleutian chain and pribilofs. A shortwave nearing the
alaska peninsula is moving toward the western gulf, on the
leading edge of the cold air pool stemming from the bering. An
influx of moisture from the low in the gulf, combined with weak
northerly flow stemming from the interior, is bringing snowfall to
the kenai peninsula, anchorage, and mat-su this morning.

Model discussion
Synoptically, models are handling the overall pattern well
through Saturday. However, at the surface they have yet to
initialize well with current observations. Because of this, the
models are varying with a shortwave moving through the western
gulf on Thursday evening into Friday. The discrepancy between
solutions is causing some uncertainty regarding the potential for
snowfall and snow amounts throughout southcentral on Friday.

Aviation
Panc...

conditions are expected to prevail in the ifr to MVFR categories
through the next TAF package as a weak boundary remains across the
anchorage area today with another front moving across tonight. Light
snow this morning is expected to change briefly over to rain during
the day. Visibilities may be lower than currently forecast; however,
there is still uncertainty on the timing for them to diminish. Light
north winds this morning vary this afternoon and tonight with the
frontal passage.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Thu and
fri)...

a modestly active pattern that is much more reminiscent of winter
than spring will be upon us for the next few days. The
deformation band that brought snow to much of the anchorage bowl
and matanuska valley Wed lingered over the kenai peninsula for
much of the night. It has since redeveloped over parts of the
anchorage bowl and the southern susitna valley. Temperatures
continue to hover just at or above the freezing mark making
forecasting precipitation type very challenging. At sea level,
rain is mixing with snow and severely limiting accumulations to
none or a trace for the most part. It is likely a different story
on the hillside as the freezing level is just below 500'.

The rain and snow could continue through the morning as moisture
moves in from the prince william sound area and the persistent
trough sits over the southern cook inlet. So long as these
features hold together, precipitation is likely to continue. We
have increased pops for the morning hours to account for this. By
tonight, a much more organized upper-level shortwave will swing
around the base of the upper level low. This will serve to
consolidate all of the moisture over the northern gulf and drive
it through southcentral. There is a healthy amount of cold air
(-8c to -11c at 850mb) rotating in with this system. So while
precipitation should remain rain along the coastal locations,
there is increasing likelihood that most inland locations see
accumulating snow overnight into fri. We have issued a special
weather statement to address some of the impacts associated with
this system.

Heading into fri, precipitation should become more showery in
nature as the cold upper level low creeps overhead. High
temperatures could struggle to make it out of the 30s and there is
likely to be some gusty southerly winds as the fronts lifts
inland. This will make the sunshine and 50 degrees temperatures of
earlier this week seem like a distant memory. By Saturday, another
robust low tracks from south to north through the gulf of ak. If
the cold air can hang in there, this could lead to another round
of snow for the area over the weekend.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: today
through Saturday)...

an upper level low currently over the south shore of norton sound
will track southward into the kuskokwim delta today, then will
move into bristol bay on Friday, then will loop back to the north
leaving a broad longwave trough over the area on Saturday. Along
this track, most of southwest alaska can expect to continue to
deal with more clouds than Sun today, along with flurries and
brief snow showers at times for much of the area. For the next
three days, the temperature profile of the area is unlikely to do
much changing, so most areas can expect relatively constant high
and low temperatures through Saturday. These will generally entail
highs in the low 30s and lows around 20. Precipitation-wise, the
best chance for snow will be late Thursday night through Friday
evening, as the upper low tracks eastward into bristol bay. As it
does so, an easterly wave will approach from southcentral. There
is significant model uncertainty with how these two features will
interact, but where general agreement does exist is a likelihood
for steady light snow along the alaska range through this time
period, especially the further north you go. Accumulations should
remain well below advisory criteria, but it is worth watching. By
Saturday, the upper low will retreat to the north, leaving a
large-scale trough over the area. This should result in quieter
weather less likely for snow. However, with cold air remaining in
place, expect more clouds than sun.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3: today
through Saturday)...

the incredibly steady-state weather pattern across the bering will
continue through Saturday. The longwave trough over alaska is
expected to remain nearly stationary, and the ridge over the far
western bering, near kamchatka, will do the same. Thus, most of
the area will continue to see snow shower activity and widespread
stratus. A shortwave trough over the eastern bering will gradually
shift southeastward across the eastern aleutians and alaska
peninsula by Friday morning. A weaker wave will move south across
the eastern bering Friday evening and night. With both of these
features, there will be briefly better organized snow showers that
will continue to impact primarily the bering side of the
mountains as the waves move through.

Marine (days 3 through 5) Broad north winds will persist over
the bering and aleutians through Saturday, while a low will start
developing in the northern pacific and trek into the gulf. While
there is uncertainty in the exact track of the low, confidence is
growing that there will be gales in the northeastern gulf late
Saturday into Sunday. In addition, cold air from the bering
wrapping into the low will bring potential for gales on the back
side of the low. If the low takes a westerly track, this would
mean gales just south of kodiak Sunday into Monday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7) The long term will begin
relatively quiet, with high pressure over the western bering and
steady north flow between that high and a developing low in the
northern pacific. Thus, expect benign conditions in the bering
and aleutians with possible showers in cold air advection. Over
the mainland, a weakening low over southwest will maintain weak
onshore flow and scattered showers over the bristol bay area. Wet,
cloudy weather will trend wetter and cloudier throughout the
weekend along the north gulf coast in steady south flow ahead of
the north pacific low.

The forecast becomes challenging Sunday into Monday, due to
uncertainty in the track of the north pacific low. Some solutions
point to a more northeastward track, which would be favorable for
precipitation in the anchorage bowl, while other solutions have
the low heading farther west, which would diminish precipitation
chances in anchorage, and increase turnagain arm winds. In any
case, showers will continue in the gulf and the north gulf coast
through early next week. Meanwhile, steady north flow and cold air
advection showers will persist over the bering and aleutians
through early next week, with a series of shortwaves or embedded
closed lows periodically increasing precipitation rates. The
leading occluded front associated with the low will enhance
potential for precipitation over southwest by Monday as it lifts
northward. As cold air continues wrapping around the west side of
the low, we may see a transition to a rain snow mix over the gulf
Monday, though warm sea surface temperatures may offset the cold
air. Wet, unsettled weather will continue through mid-week, but
impacts are not expected.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra
aviation... Kh
southcentral alaska... Mo
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jpw
marine long term... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi47 min WSW 9.7 G 14 33°F 42°F4 ft998.7 hPa (+0.5)17°F
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 90 mi37 min W 18 G 26 25°F 997.4 hPa (-0.5)20°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 96 mi37 min W 6 G 19 33°F 42°F1000.8 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kukak, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Kukak
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Thu -- 02:15 AM AKDT     15.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:37 AM AKDT     -1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:40 PM AKDT     14.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:53 PM AKDT     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.113.515.114.712.58.94.60.8-1.5-1.80.23.88.11214.514.913.310.26.12-0.8-1.7-0.23.3

Tide / Current Tables for Katmai Bay, Shelikof Strait, Alaska
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Katmai Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM AKDT     14.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:33 AM AKDT     -1.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM AKDT     14.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:49 PM AKDT     -1.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1013.214.61411.78.24.10.6-1.5-1.60.43.98.111.81414.212.69.55.51.7-0.9-1.603.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.