Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:24AMSunset 3:52PM Saturday January 19, 2019 6:22 PM AKST (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 316 Pm Akst Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning through this evening...
Tonight..N wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft late.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less.
Sun night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Mon..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Mon night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192346
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
246 pm akst Sat jan 19 2019

Short term through Sunday night ... Weak low pressure persists over
the eastern gulf with multiple surface circulations evident in
satellite imagery. A stronger low over the eastern dixon entrance
will continue tracking north, moving inland over misty fjords this
evening, but have little impact on the sensible weather.

Elsewhere, a very strong northeasterly pressure gradient remains
in place. This feature has produced high end gale force winds in
lynn canal all day today. Additionally, high end small craft winds
have been recorded at both point bishop and point arden through
the day. The northerly pressure gradient is forecast to weaken
during this short term forecast period such that by tomorrow
afternoon, inner channels marine winds should be 15 kts or less.

Main threat of precipitation lies to the south and is associated
with the low that will move inland later this evening. Precip type
this afternoon is rain, but overnight lows will be cold enough to support
snow tonight north of sumner strait, and north of frederick sound
Sunday night. Snow totals each night ranging from 1 to 2 inches.

Daytime highs will drive the freezing line north of the icy strait
corridor by mid day Monday.

Made no changes to pressure or wind beyond Monday morning due to
poor model agreement. Model agreement on pop was less than
stellar as well, so opted to characterize this field as
probabilistic over the northern half of southeast alaska through
Sunday evening. Overall forecast confidence is average trending
below average.

Long term Monday through Friday as of 10 pm Friday the
overall weather pattern expected for the long range remains warm
and wet overall. An upper level ridge over the west coast of the
us and a trough over the bering sea will remain entrenched through
the period with SW flow over the gulf and panhandle persisting.

This overall pattern is rather well represented by the long range
models and is just about the only thing that we can say with
confidence at this time. Embedded in this SW flow are several
short waves that will be keeping the weather rather active through
late next week but the uncertainty of the timing and track of
each short wave only increases with each successive wave.

The forecast confidence at the surface is no better with several
surface troughs moving in through the week. About the only system
that is getting better confidence on is a low that will be moving
in for Mon night into tue. Still some spread on where the low
center is going to go but it is no where's near as spread out as
it was yesterday. Overall consensus is for the low to head inland
somewhere between CAPE decision and CAPE fairweather spreading
25 to 35 kt winds across the SE gulf and precip into the
panhandle as it comes. Main changes for the long range were here,
where winds were increased in the SE gulf and in the southern half
of the panhandle as the system moves through. Favored 18z nam
with some wpc for updates here.

Farther out, there is some indications that the next system will
arrive mid to late week though there is some differences on when
it actually arrives and how far east it takes the precipitation.

There are even some indications of a possible atmospheric river
developing toward late week (most likely aimed at the northern
gulf coast), but exactly where and how long it sticks around are
not agreed upon. The main thing that can be said with confidence
is that the long range will feature wet and warmer weather with
the predominantly SW flow over the area.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031-032-036.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041-042.

Fritsch jwa eal
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTLA2 8 mi31 min NE 8 G 12 29°F 1001.5 hPa17°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi41 min E 4.1 G 6 29°F 39°F1001.6 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi35 min S 5.1 G 5.1 30°F 1001 hPa19°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi30 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F16°F58%1001.5 hPa

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS3CalmSW4NW3CalmE4E3S3NE6E3E7NE5
1 day agoE7E5NE4E6NE5E4NE5NE6E5E6NE54NE63NE5NE5NE6NE6NE5E3N3NE4NE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE7NE6E6E6E5E6NE4NE4E34SE12SE9SE12SE11E5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:05 AM AKST     3.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:04 AM AKST     17.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:52 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:51 PM AKST     -3.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.311.89.36.54.33.34.16.51013.41617.116.313.79.750.6-2.3-3.2-1.61.96.210.413.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:12 AM AKST     3.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM AKST     17.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:58 PM AKST     -2.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.212.810.37.44.83.64.26.59.913.616.417.717.214.910.96.11.5-1.8-2.9-1.61.76.110.513.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.