Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

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Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:08PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 2:08 PM AKDT (22:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 251 Am Akdt Tue Sep 18 2018
Today..E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 181250
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
450 am akdt Tue sep 18 2018

Short term Little change to synoptic pattern through the period
with dominant feature being ridge over the panhandle. This will
result in persistence forecast prevailing across majority of aor.

N gulf coast and far S panhandle are the areas experiencing
slightly different conditions than 24 hrs ago. Clearer skies over
the N gulf coast allowed some fog to develop over paya with
visibilities varying from 1 2-p6sm early this morning. This patchy
fog will dissipate by mid morning giving way to mostly sunny
skies. Potential exists for another round of patchy fog along the
n gulf coast again Wed am, but with modeled bl rh's in the 60s
confidence is too low to include mention attm. The S panhandle is
the other area experiencing different conditions than Mon am.

Low pressure W of haida gwaii and associated frontal band S of aor
is advecting more cloud cover and isold-sct showers through this
evening as the low slowly drifts ese and fills. Otherwise, below
normal to record low temps will gradually moderate over the inner
channels through the period. However, anticipate another round of
frost advisories will be likely overnight into Wed under clear
skies and light winds. Winds will remain under 20 kt for the
marine areas except for the SE gulf. Land winds will remain light
and with seabreeze to 15 mph developing in the afternoons.

Inherited forecast represented this well and forecast confidence
remains above average.

Long term Thursday through Monday signs of change are in the
works through the extended period. Upper level pattern of a ridge
over the bering sea and a trough over the western us and canada
will be shifting to the east. Progress will be very slow, however
with the ridge not making it to the gulf until the Sun Mon time
period.

Meanwhile two short waves will be passing between the
ridge and trough during this time. The first will be weakening
south of the panhandle on Thu with little if any lingering effects
for the area. The second approaches for the early weekend but
guidance has been varying wildly on it for the last few days.

Initially it was forecast to pass SE through the gulf possibly
bringing some rain to the gulf and outer coast. That has since
shifted to staying well north of the panhandle in the GFS with
little in the way of precip expected, or passing right over the
panhandle in the ECMWF giving most of the panhandle a wet sat. The
differences continue to pile on from there with the GFS handling
the upstream ridge differently between the last two runs (dry
weekend in the 18z run vs. A damp weekend due to some energy
rapidly getting push across the gulf in the 0z run), and the
ecmwf bringing a front across the gulf for next mon. Ensemble
guidance still paints a drier weekend for most areas so leaned
more in that direction but rain shows signs of creeping in late
weekend into early next week.

So what does that mean for the forecast? Well, the higher
confidence part of the forecast is that the dry weather that we
have been enjoying will stick around at least through Friday with
relatively low winds continuing in most areas. Skies will also
remain mostly clear during that time period. After that point,
forecast confidence plummets given the above inconstancies
present in the long range guidance. Rain chances are starting to
creep into the picture late weekend and early next week with
cloudier conditions and more seasonal temperatures expected.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Frost advisory until 9 am akdt this morning for akz017-026.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz041-042.

Bc eal
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 64°F
GUXA2 9 mi27 min SE 4.1 G 8 53°F 1020.5 hPa37°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi39 min 59°F 51°F1021.5 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi47 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 51°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi59 min E 19 G 23 49°F 1022.7 hPa40°F
LIXA2 45 mi27 min NNW 8 G 12 47°F 1020.5 hPa31°F
RIXA2 48 mi27 min W 6 G 8 50°F 1021.1 hPa
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi59 min N 4.1 G 8.9 55°F 1019.5 hPa39°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi13 minS 510.00 miFair56°F37°F51%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmSW4SW6S5
1 day agoS733SE4CalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4
2 days ago3SE5SE5SE4CalmCalm--CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE43S5

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.