Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:32AMSunset 3:09PM Monday December 10, 2018 12:33 AM AKST (09:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 6:33PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 311 Pm Akst Sun Dec 9 2018
.gale warning Monday...
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt becoming sw 25 kt in the evening, then shifting to the E late. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain.
Mon..SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
Tue..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Tue night..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Wed..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 100001
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
301 pm akst Sun dec 9 2018

Short term Very active weather continues for se. We have one
system pushing through this afternoon with moderate to heavy
showers and gusty winds occurring. Late tonight another front will
cross the gulf with winds increasing to 40-50kt over the outside
waters and heavy rain. A wave developing along the front will
work to enhance it as it moves onshore Monday morning. Have
widespread strong winds (40-50mph gusts) expected for majority of
the panhandle as the front passes through the day. This front
again looks warm, so near sea level will see all rain. However,
white pass should remain just cold enough for another round of
heavy snow. Have 12-20 inches over a 24hr period for there,
encompassing Monday.

Once this front passes, winds will shift to the SW with cold air
advection behind it. Expect a transition back to showers with the
caa and even some snow showers. Ocean effect rain and snow
showers will continue through Tuesday night with some minor
accumulations possible.

Adjusted wind speeds up using primarily the namnest. Some
uncertainty remains with timing and strength of waves along the
front, any adjustment to these would mainly impact placement of
strongest winds. Confidence in categorical rain or showers is
above average, going to be a wet couple of days with negligible
breaks.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday night ... Very active long
range forecast period. Extended range forecast begins with a
large and fairly broad negatively tilted upper trough oriented
northwest to southeast across the gulf of alaska. Models in very
good agreement on this and all significant jet energy begins this
period well to the south. A progressive upper ridge will displace
the trough to the east and come to lie over the eastern gulf by
Wednesday morning. This feature is then also displaced to the east
as an upper short wave moves into the gulf on Wednesday night. A
short lived upper low will form, but this will get ejected to the
north or become absorbed by another, more sharply defined upper
trough Thursday afternoon and continues to the east into canada by
Friday afternoon. Once more upper ridge moves over on Saturday and
by Sunday, it looks as if a large upper low will set up over the
gulf and remain in place into next week.

At the surface, model agreement not nearly as good. All agree at
the start that there will be a large, complex area of low pressure
than spans from the western interior, east into the yukon, and to
the southern gulf of alaska. The difficulty is that numerous
surface circulations are embedded within the larger complex and no
two models are in agreement on precisely where those surface
circulations are at the start or where they will go how they
evolve over the course of the upcoming week. This is no trivial
problem either, as the various model solutions have yet another
storm force low crossing the southeastern gulf on Tuesday. Beyond
that, at least three more high end gale force fronts on Wednesday
evening, Saturday, and Sunday will affect the eastern gulf and
southeast alaska.

Very gradual cooling of the low levels is also forecast for the
upcoming week with overnight lows getting down to freezing or
below for nearly all populated locations by Thursday night. Thus,
there is the possibility of some snow at the lower elevations.

This is not a certainty, since the pattern, with fronts coming in
from the west, is not a reliable snow scenario. Time will tell.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz026.

Strong wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
akz021-023-025>027.

Strong wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
akz017-024-028.

Strong wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
akz022.

Winter storm warning from 3 am Monday to 5 am akst Tuesday for
akz018.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz041-042.

Gale warning for pkz021-022-031>036-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011>013-053.

Ferrin fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi67 min SE 4.1 G 6 38°F
GUXA2 9 mi21 min SE 5.1 G 11 38°F 998.7 hPa34°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi39 min 40°F 47°F1000.6 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi71 min SSE 1 G 20 40°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi23 min S 21 G 43 42°F 1001 hPa37°F
LIXA2 45 mi21 min SE 26 G 38 36°F 1000.7 hPa28°F
RIXA2 48 mi21 min SE 24 G 34 37°F 1000.9 hPa

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi97 minSE 710.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1000.9 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE22
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2 days agoN3CalmN3CalmN3NW3N4CalmN3N4NW5N4NW6NW6NW9N9NW7NW7CalmNW6SE9
G14
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM AKST     13.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:41 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM AKST     3.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:19 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:40 PM AKST     15.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:34 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:13 PM AKST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.210.512.91413.511.68.96.24.345.27.710.713.314.915.213.911.17.53.70.8-0.6-02.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:59 AM AKST     11.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 AM AKST     4.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:40 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:07 PM AKST     13.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:12 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:03 PM AKST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.79.411.311.911.29.57.45.54.44.55.8810.312.213.112.610.98.35.42.60.6-0.10.52.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.