Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:14 AM AKDT (08:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:25AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 655 Pm Akdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 230622 cca
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service juneau ak
1022 pm akdt Wed mar 22 2017

Short term Old low southwest of haida gwaii persisting through
tonight and then moving slowly northwest into the eastern gulf.

There is a fair bit of moisture moving northward over southeast
alaska. At the mid levels there is a general trough across the
gulf with a minor closed low near prince of wales, though this
expected to dissipate on Thursday. This will keep a general south
to southwest flow aloft into the southeast panhandle.

Scattered showers on Wednesday afternoon seem to be limited to the
far southern panhandle and the pops are expected to move
northwards some, however am not expecting much more then 30 to 60
percent chance of measurable rain and or snow. The snow should be
limited to the night time periods and little to no accumulations.

While some patchy fog may develop overnight, think there is only
a slim chance of stations picking up any thicker/dense fog with
perhaps the yakutat area being the more likely target. Will be
considering fog for the TAF overnight in that area.

Model agreement was generally good through Thursday, and most
edits in the short term were based on a blend of the NAM and gfs
solutions. Forecast confidence is above average.

Long term An upper level low will remain positioned just west
of the panhandle. This invites wave after wave south into the
northern gulf to spawn weak disturbances leading south. These
waves have repeatedly interacted with the southern storm track and
tapped southern moisture to play with over the southeast gulf,
only to lead it northward into the panhandle. This pattern has
generally lead to mainly rain over the southern areas with
chances of a lighter mix across the north and central panhandle.

This refrain repeats itself again Thursday night into Friday night
as a surface low/front approaches from the south and stalls
before attempting to move east into bc. As it nears from the south
though, the northern panhandle will see a dry day on Friday.

Confidence falls this weekend and next week though. Ensembles for
days would have us transition to a pattern that features a longer
southwesterly track of storms into the eastern gulf. This would
steer potentially stronger storms our way, and also help moderate
our temperatures. Currently, our forecast shows a slow warming
trend, but individual days/nights could be much warmer at times.

It is conceivable that portions of southeast will experience bands
of heavy rain and wind at times. But naming the time period is too
challenging at this stage. Therefore, the forecast is very
general.

Another challenge will arise for the transition between patterns
this weekend. Models today have displayed increasing support for a
moderately strong low moving east across the north pacific that
will curve northward Sunday. Most models push it northwest to
retrograde into south-central alaska. Ensembles are characterizing
this period as one of lower confidence. Our team office in
anchorage also has expressed skepticism on this evolution. Thus,
we have decided to forgo any changes during this time period. But
should models become more consistent, we may make changes for
Sunday into Monday. This would make for a breezier period along
the coast and likely gale force winds over the gulf waters.

Precipitation should be in the form of rain in general. Currently,
the forecast is a more generalized version of these events.

Forecast confidence is average.

Aviation Most aviation sites areVFR this evening though the
southern panhandle around ketchikan will flirt with MVFR/ifr from
ceilings and showers. The showers across the panhandle are not
very widespread so think this will be an up and down evening.

Overnight ceilings may lower to top end of the MVFR levels, though
expect them to improve again after sunrise. Winds mainly light
and pilots reporting only light turbulence near and above the
terrain today.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013.

Bezenek/jwa
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi49 min NE 2.9 G 6 37°F 1000.3 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi45 min 37°F 46°F999.8 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 8 38°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi65 min E 15 G 22 38°F 29°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi65 min N 9.9 G 15 38°F 998.6 hPa28°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi19 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F26°F89%1001.5 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N5NW8NW5NW7NW3NW6N3CalmNW9NW11NW9NW8NW10N10NW6NW7NW7NW5NW4NW4NW5NW6Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S4SE7NW7NW8NW7NW10NW8CalmN3CalmNW4NW6
2 days agoSE10SE8SE12SE13SE12SE18
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SE13SE13SE14SE14SE12SE12SE12SE8SE8CalmCalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:39 AM AKDT     5.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:38 AM AKDT     11.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:18 PM AKDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM AKDT     11.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
109.17.86.55.65.56.27.69.210.711.511.710.99.274.72.81.82.13.45.57.99.911.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:18 AM AKDT     4.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM AKDT     10.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM AKDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:35 PM AKDT     10.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.17.96.45.14.44.55.57.18.810.210.810.49.37.45.23.21.71.21.63.15.17.39.210.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.