Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 3:47AMSunset 10:10PM Monday June 18, 2018 9:12 AM AKDT (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 405 Am Akdt Mon Jun 18 2018
Today..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less early in the morning.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 181316
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
516 am akdt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis A gale force front will push north across the central
gulf today. A ridge of high pressure over the north central
panhandle will shift west along the coast and persist into mid-
week. Low pressure will remain across western canada.

Short term Frontal precipitation extended much farther east
than originally thought, and juneau and gustavus as well as
skagway all experienced light rain overnight. As the instigating
short-wave has lifted north, we are left with leftover drizzle and
shallow moist layers. Mixing from aloft will help weaken the
inversion this afternoon, but models are keeping around some sort
of "soft inversion" that will keep cloudiness likely through the
afternoon. Also, while it may be an over-reaction given our very
mild morning temperatures, we did cool highs in juneau back into
the high 60s from the optimistic 70. But we are still expecting a
nice day by juneau standards. Meanwhile a developing thermal
trough ironically is the only thing keeping ketchikan from hitting
80 degrees plus. This will enhance northwesterlies and that very
natural marine-style air conditioning that alaskans love on warm,
fair days. Temperatures will likely sizzle even more on Tuesday
still as we will not be hampered by a foggy misty soup across the
north.

Yakutat will be a different story today as the rest of the
panhandle either basks underneath the big hot ridge or is so close
they can feel it. Instead, another moist system heads north from
the gulf and keeps it wet this morning before beginning to
improve in the afternoon. Yet another wave spreads rainfall
eastward likely back into yakutat tonight before even they begin
to dry out.

Finally, a surface ridge will hug the coast concerningly closely
through the period into Wednesday. Thus, sitka, baranof island,
and elfin cove pelican may be a little cooler than the interior
and be plagued with in and out low stratus, especially in the
mornings and during the night. Craig klawock hydaburg edna bay
will have to keep an eye out for marine stratus as well.

We used mainly NAM and its high-res suite of products as
agreement was good. Forecast confidence is good on overall trends,
but only average for transitions like the improvement of
conditions across the north-central panhandle today.

Long term Wednesday through Monday ... Surface high pressure
will remain over the gulf through Wednesday and allow for another
mostly dry day. Flow aloft will be s-sw, so some clouds from the
gulf are likely, especially along the northern gulf coast. Will
need to watch for marine layer clouds under the high as well.

Wednesday should be another warm day with highs in the low to mid
70s over the inner channels, but likely slightly cooler than
Tuesday. Due to the thermal heating some convection is possible in
b.C. And these may move into the southern panhandle around hyder.

Have not included a mention of thunder in this forecast, but did
include isolated showers for this area in the afternoon evening.

An upper level trough (or two) will move across the region from
the SW thurs Fri and cause the next chance of showers. Models
have short wave troughs passing over at different times however,
so there is some uncertainty. Due to the variability with
location timing from run to run have continued with a broader area
of slight chance showers for both Thursday night and Friday.

A low pressure system with a better chance of rain moves into the
gulf from the SW Saturday, then looks to continue affecting the
region Sunday. Most models have shifted the low center to a
southern track, but the GFS is still the northern most while the
canadian is delayed to move it in until Sunday night. Overall, this
southern track would keep the northern third of the panhandle with
a lower chance of rain due to offshore flow, but the southern
areas have a greater chance of a wet weekend. Due to the model
timing differences of bringing the low in, have kept pop to a
chance for now. After this low moves out, a ridge re-builds over
the gulf for the start of next week.

Aviation Improvement this morning was slowed again for portions
of the central and northern panhandle. But the idea of more mixing
from aloft helping to break the inversion stands as the "paradigm
du jour." yakutat will still endure periods with a general
improvement today, but falling again tonight. Meanwhile, sitka
will likely experience a persistent marine layer as it may back
off this afternoon but reappear tonight. Fog developed rapidly
early this morning in sitka. Low ceilings and the potential for
fog early in klawock should break off as mixing begins in earnest
around prince of wales island.

Marine Easterly gales will plague the northern gulf today and
some small craft winds will extend southeast from there. But as
the front moves ashore, these winds will begin to weaken toward
tonight. Even so, a long southerly fetch across the gulf will open
the door for high seas for the entire eastern gulf along with
cross sound and yakutat bay. Underneath high pressure, mariners
sailing the inner channels will enjoy lighter winds, although the
northwest winds through clarence strait could push 20 kt at times
due to a thermal trough extending from western canada.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz052.

Small craft advisory for pkz051.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-041>043-053.

Adkins ferrin
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi107 min E 1 G 2.9 51°F
GUXA2 9 mi21 min WSW 6 G 9.9 60°F 1023.1 hPa53°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi43 min 56°F 48°F1024.5 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi51 min W 6 G 11 50°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi63 min E 13 G 23 52°F 1025.4 hPa51°F
LIXA2 45 mi21 min N 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 1023.7 hPa47°F
RIXA2 48 mi21 min W 5.1 G 8 50°F 1023.8 hPa
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi63 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1022 hPa52°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi17 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F54°F90%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--SE6SW6CalmSW6S5SW3SW4W4S4SW4W3W3CalmCalmNW4SW3NW4NW4NW3CalmNW4N6
1 day agoCalmCalmSE8SW4Calm3W5NW3SE3SE64NW4NW3NW4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3SE3Calm
2 days agoSW6SW6SW7S7SW4SW6SW8SW10SW8W8SW6CalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
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Mon -- 12:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:13 AM AKDT     15.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:32 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:43 AM AKDT     -2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM AKDT     14.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
35.28.311.51415.214.712.48.84.60.9-1.5-2-0.42.76.510.21314.31412.19.36.34

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:44 AM AKDT     12.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM AKDT     -1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM AKDT     11.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.35.37.810.31212.411.49.16.12.90.3-1.3-1.30.12.65.78.710.811.711.39.77.45.13.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.