Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:19AMSunset 3:59PM Sunday January 21, 2018 9:00 AM AKST (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 403 Am Akst Sun Jan 21 2018
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Mon night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
Tue..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 211541 cca
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service juneau ak
641 am akst Sun jan 21 2018

Short term Today through Monday... Looking at current water
vapor satellite imagery, we can see a developing omega block,
with the upper level ridge centered over the bering sea and its
right-hand trough positioned over the gulf of alaska. This short
term forecast has proven somewhat tricky due to subsequent
embedded shortwaves within this broad trough over the gulf. One of
these shortwaves, which has lingered in the southeast gulf and is
currently centered west of haida gwaii, continues to weaken and
is beginning to lift out of our area. A boundary associated with
this low lifted across the panhandle early this morning, causing
some places to report very light precipitation. As evidenced by
the annette sounding this morning, most of the precipitation
falling along the boundary was most likely being evaporated
through a drier mid-level. Some places have also continued to be
relatively windy through this morning due to northerly outflow
from a tight pressure gradient between the weakening shortwave and
a ridge of high pressure over the yukon in canada. The northern
inner channels remain at small craft advisory levels, while
northern lynn canal actually remains as gale. Skagway also remains
under a strong wind headline, as gusts as high as 40 mph are
still being reported there, and outflow winds in downtown juneau
and douglas caused some brief bursts last night and earlier this
morning.

In addition to this weakening shortwave in the southeast gulf, we
can see an additional shortwave on WV satellite digging south out
of mainland alaska into the central gulf. This low is expected to
strengthen later today with the colder air interacting with the
warmer water, creating a pseudo baroclinic zone. This developing
low has been a struggle to deal with in the short term, as far as
precipitation amounts and types are concerned. An occluded front
will push across the the panhandle, providing lift in order to
trigger precipitation. 925mb temperatures at least indicate that
precipitation from this next system will most likely be frozen,
especially in more northern areas. Due to the cold, arctic air
wrapping into the circulation aloft, precipitation will be shower-
like in nature. In general, we expect widespread snow
accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches with this next feature on
Monday, but folks that find themselves under the heavier snow
bands may see additional accumulations, which makes this very hard
to pinpoint who will see the most snow.

We decided on a primarily nam ECMWF model blend for updates to the
forecast. We also added some canadian into pops early on, as it
was the model that better matched current precipitation being
reported throughout the panhandle this morning. Overall, our
confidence is above average for snowfall but below average for
accumulations.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday ... Long range period begins
with a large upper level low dominating the gulf of alaska and
another located over the northern interior. Upstream, a building
upper ridge will be situated over the bering sea. The gulf low
exhibits a slight positive tilt, but becomes negatively tilted by
Wednesday morning as the northern interior low drops south. By
Thursday, the original low shifts east to hecate strait and
weakens as the northern interior low moves south into the
northwest gulf and deepens. By this time, the upstream ridge will
have strengthened into an omega block, with another upper low
near hokkaido and sakhalin islands. By the end of next weekend,
the omega block remains strong and in place, and a large upper
low once again dominates the gulf of alaska.

The combined effect of the upper low(s) over the gulf and the
building upper ridge to the west will be to advect in colder low
level air over the panhandle. Some modification of this airmass
will occur as it crosses a considerable distance over the open
ocean, but the ridge will prevent any warmer air from the west
from mixing in. 850h temperatures marginally supportive of
snowfall on Tuesday and then again from Thursday onward. Similar
story for 1000-500 thicknesses. 1000-850 thicknesses remain
marginal to favorable for the entire week. Daytime highs over the
southern half of the panhandle from frederick sound south
indicate that there is a good chance that at least some of the
precipitation for this coming week will be in the form of rain.

Otherwise, what precip we do see may be mostly in the form of
snow. No well defined fronts currently being depicted in medium to
long range models, so convective precip (showers) is anticipated
through at least Tuesday night. 24 hour snow totals at this time
indicating possibly advisory level snowfall at most. Major caveat
there is that a snowfall forecast for 3-5 days into the future in
a convective environment in southeast alaska is a stretch at best,
so keeping track of how this forecast changes is in everybody's
best interest.

No significant changes to pressure or winds. Pop and QPF from gfs
and the canadian nh with some help from ECMWF through Thursday
night and the latest wpc thereafter. Daytime highs and overnight
lows generally adjusted down slightly for the second half of the
week based on current model spectrum plots. Overall forecast
confidence is average, but below average for snow totals.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 am akst this morning for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-022.

Small craft advisory for pkz013-021-031-035-036-041-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz042.

Voveris fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi35 min N 7 G 8.9 34°F
GUXA2 9 mi29 min E 2.9 G 4.1 29°F 996.4 hPa25°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi43 min 35°F 46°F996.4 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi39 min NW 6 G 8.9 36°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi51 min E 24 G 34 36°F 33°F
LIXA2 45 mi29 min NW 38 G 51 31°F 997 hPa22°F
RIXA2 48 mi29 min N 35 G 42 32°F 995 hPa23°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi51 min N 19 G 27 33°F 996.1 hPa23°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi65 minVar 310.00 miOvercast30°F28°F96%997.8 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3CalmNW4NW3NW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW4NW4NW3N3W33
1 day agoCalmN4--CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmN3--NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmN3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3N3NW4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:51 AM AKST     14.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:44 AM AKST     2.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:19 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:37 PM AKST     14.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:00 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:00 PM AKST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.88.311.513.514.113.1118.15.33.434.26.79.612.213.813.912.610.16.83.51.10.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:41 AM AKST     12.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:30 AM AKST     3.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:19 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:12 PM AKST     12.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:01 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:47 PM AKST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.97.810.311.812.111.19.16.84.83.63.64.86.99.211.212.111.710.27.85.12.71.10.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.