Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:02AMSunset 8:47PM Saturday April 29, 2017 3:22 AM AKDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:54AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 314 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 28 2017
Tonight..NW wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog late.
Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..E wind 10 kt becoming nw. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 290844 cca
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
254 pm akdt Fri apr 28 2017

Short term /through Sunday/a high pressure ridge over SE ak
will weaken and drift NE tonight. A weak occluded front over the
central gulf will move to the northern gulf tonight, then
dissipate there sat. A strong low will move NE to haida gwaii by
sat afternoon, then turn E to the central bc coast while weakening
rapidly Sat night. A weak upper trof will move NE across the area
sun. Used 12z gfs/nam blend to handle things through sun.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential and winds. Showers
going on over the area will diminish tonight as low level flow
becomes more offshore. Rain with strong low will move NE into the
far southern area sat. Models differ some on how far N the rain
will get. Gfs/nam basically limit it to the southern 3 zones, but
some rain could get into the far S part of 23 and 26 as well. As
low moves out Sat evening, the rain should diminish over the far
south. For sun, upper trof moving in may be strong enough for some
spotty rain over the area. Have generally chance pops to handle
this on sun.

Winds will be diminishing over the N this evening while
increasing over the S late tonight and sat. Over the n, 15-20 kt
s-w winds should become fairly light for a bit by late evening,
then turn more n-e around 10-15 kt late tonight. They will
increase a bit more Sat to 15-20 kt over much of the N and central
area. Over the s, as low moves toward them, winds will become more
e-ne and increase to 15-25 kt by late tonight, then to 25-35 kt
sat with highest winds over the far S parts. Once low moves inland
sat night, winds should back to n-nw and drop off some. Trough
moving in Sunday may pick winds up a little bit but most areas
should be below SCA levels. Over the N gulf, winds will pick up to
15-25 kt late tonight as weak front moves in, then diminish Sat as
front dissipates.

Otherwise, keeping in patchy fog for parts of the area late
tonight with breaks in clouds and diminishing winds. Sat should
see temps rebound to slightly above average with offshore flow
helping with warming especially over the n. Sunday should be cooler
again with more onshore flow bringing clouds and spotty precip.

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/
As of 10pm Thursday... Early next week a weak ridging pattern will
be in place over the panhandle that persists until an upper level
low pressure over the western aleutians begins to track eastward.

Models are in fair agreement of this pattern.

Sunday looks like a relatively drier day as the remnants of a
low pressure system begin to dissipate. After this break, models
are trending toward a wetter pattern, for the panhandle as a
whole. Early next week the offshore flow pattern shifts back to
onshore flow. This should keep temperatures slightly cooler. The
largest concern next week is a stronger low that will travel
across the gulf, carrying further precipitation. Models still do
not have a good handle the intensity (though they are trending
toward a stronger low) and the track it will take.

No significant changes were made in the long term due to models
still not having a good handle on the low pressure system next
week. Used a combination of the ecmwf/gfs with input from wpc in
the long term, the canadian model seemed like an outlier with the
handling of the low pressure.

Aviation... Widespread showers with MVFR and some ifr ceiling from
this morning has given way toVFR and MVFR ceilings and drier
conditions this afternoon and evening. Aviation weather is
expected to continue to improve overnight with offshore flow
increasing. Included some fog for various areas as low level
moisture is high and light winds prevail. Tomorrow, northern
airports expected to remainVFR. Southern airports will see
increasing possibility of rain with clouds lowering to MVFR by mid
day as low moves toward haida gwaii. Did include some minor wind
shear for pakt and pakw tomorrow due to some speed and directional
shear at low levels.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-036-042-052.

Rwt/byrd
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi56 min SE 1 G 1.9 36°F 1021.7 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi64 min 36°F 48°F1020.7 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi60 min Calm G 1.9 39°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi72 min ENE 12 G 19 40°F 37°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi72 min Calm G 1.9 40°F 1020.1 hPa37°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E9
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G16
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G15
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E10
G20
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G14
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G13
SE9
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G11
E7
G11
E11
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi26 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds29°F28°F100%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4SE4SE5SE9E8E10E7SE4W4SW76W9
G17
W12
G18
W7SW7W5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3
1 day agoSE8CalmSE4--SE11SE9SE11SE9E9E10
G14
SE9E4CalmSE4CalmSE3--N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE4CalmSE6S5E3SE3CalmNE6NW7NW6N4E3NW4CalmCalmCalmSE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:44 AM AKDT     17.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM AKDT     -3.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM AKDT     15.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:23 PM AKDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.210.614.51717.515.812.17.22.1-1.9-3.8-3.1-0.24.18.712.414.614.913.210.16.53.31.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:17 AM AKDT     14.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:04 AM AKDT     -2.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM AKDT     12.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM AKDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.79.912.61413.611.78.44.71.2-1.3-2.3-1.50.84.17.610.311.811.810.37.85.23.12.22.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.