Friday, April20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:39PM Friday April 20, 2018 12:24 PM AKDT (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:18AMMoonset 12:51AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201238
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
438 am akdt Fri apr 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The satellite picture shows a transitional picture, with southern
alaska between systems in a generally weak flow. The stacked
system that had set up shop over the bering sea is being pushed into
the gulf of alaska, while the compact system over the northern
gulf is rapidly weakening. The more active features aloft are to
the northeast and southwest. A depression over the canadian arctic
works in tandem with a chukchi high to bring a northerly jet and
trough southward over the great land. The other is rapidly
developing shortwave within the sub-tropical jet, south of the
western aleutians.

The compact system over the gulf is quickly losing steam as it's
forcing has moved off into canada. The deformation and
precipitation shield associated with it is too falling apart
quickly as the flow slackens. Mainly weak showers are left in the
northern gulf and prince william sound area. Middle and high
clouds associated with the system are spilling into the copper
river basin and over the chugach. The progression of that area of
moisture will be the short-term focus while the dropping arctic
trough will be the longer-term focus of sensible weather.

Model discussion
Guidance remains in lockstep, bringing the arctic trough
southwestward over the central bering sea by the weekend. The same
goes for the low pressure system currently south of the western
aleutians, as models are in great agreement with position and
strength as the system moves eastward, south of the alaska
peninsula. The interaction of these two systems and one over
kamchatka will set the stage for the long-wave pattern of the next
week or longer.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through early
afternoon. The turnagain wind should develop and make it's way
into the airport, along with some convective showers in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The surface low near the entrance of prince william sound has spun
up rather nicely from late yesterday through overnight and is
bringing widespread rain showers around the sound.

A cold, upper level trough is also digging southward over the
interior which is causing the atmosphere to become less stable and
will increase the shower activity over inland areas of
southcentral. Areas close to sea level will mostly remain all
rain. The northern susitna valley near the alaska range is the
area which will see the most snow with a few inches likely north
of talkeetna today through tonight.

Winds will increase today through turnagain arm, the knik river
valley and along the copper river as the low currently near prince
william sound rapidly weakens and a nose of high pressure builds
along the north gulf coast. These gap winds generally help
diminish precipitation inland, but the instability associated with
the cold temperatures aloft and the lifting from the digging
trough will likely be enough to bring some showers into the
inland areas anyway.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Fri and sat)...

a change is in store to start the weekend. Much of the day will be
dry and mild for nearly all of SW ak. But an upper level trough
will be digging from the interior of ak towards the region. This
trough has enough cold air and upper level energy to make it
through the ak range. The trough will pivot across the yk-delta
tonight into sat. While it will start out rather starved for
moisture, it will eventually start to pull some up from the gulf
of ak as flow turns s-se over the ak and aleutian ranges. There
should be plenty of lift and instability associated with the
potent trough, so once the moisture is in place, expect widespread
showers to develop. They will first build along the alaska range
fri eve, but will then build westward through sat. Some of the
showers could be heavy enough to produce a quick burst of snow and
some isolated gusty winds. Temperatures will continue to drop
below freezing overnight and climb to near 40 during the day
Saturday. Thus, expect a mix of rain and snow with this system.

The best chance for any snow accumulation will be confined to the
higher elevations and across the colder, interior portions of the
lower yukon valley. Those locations could see a few inches into
sat morning.

Later on sat, the system continues to shift into the eastern
bering. As it does so, southeasterly flow will tap into some
lingering moisture from a remnant low near the alaska peninsula.

This should serve to reinforce the wet weather, but should also
allow temperatures to rebound a few degrees.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Fri and

weather will remain quiet across the bering, as per climatology
for late april. An elongating front will keep wet
weather and some patchy fog over the western aleutians into
tonight. A "run-of-the-mill" 980 mb low will skirt south of the
central aleutians today. This will keep some small-craft level
easterly winds on the pacific side of the chain. As the low
"reemerges" from the north pacific, it will bring some small-
craft easterly winds to the alaska peninsula by Sat afternoon. It
will also bring some moderate rain to the ak peninsula, favoring the
south side. Weather will remain relatively quiet across the rest
of the area until a deepening low approaches the western aleutians
on sun.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A low will head out into the eastern bering on Sunday, bringing
precipitation to the western portions of the bristol bay and
kuskokwim delta zones. Most bristol bay locations should be warm
enough for rain, with the areas from dillingham north and west
seeing some light snow. The kuskokwim delta coast will stay cold
enough for a few inches of snow accumulation.

Meanwhile a progressive pattern yielding gusty, cloudy, and cool
conditions across southcentral, and will remain in place from
Sunday through late next week. Models are showing a series of
fronts entering the gulf region originating from a north pacific
low south of kodiak (Sunday into Monday) and eventually a large
low over the bering (Monday through Thursday). This will continue
the pattern of southeast flow downsloping the areas west of the
chugach and alaska aleutian ranges, bringing cloudy, cool, but
drier conditions to these areas. Whereas along the gulf coast,
steadier precipitation is expected with each frontal passage,
along with gusty winds along the northern gulf and through favored
channeled terrain. By Friday, there is a chance that precipitation
over the area could begin to dissipate as high pressure starts
moving back over the southern mainland. However, there is very
little model agreement on this solution, lowering confidence in
the forecast for the later part of the week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mso
long term... Tp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi28 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast41°F35°F79%999.4 hPa

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----E75SE9--SE10SE8E5E5E5--SE5E5------E5CalmSE4S5--W5NW3
1 day agoSE16
2 days ago--SE19

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Fri -- 02:14 AM AKDT     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM AKDT     21.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:18 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 PM AKDT     4.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM AKDT     15.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Fri -- 02:01 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:51 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:21 AM AKDT     3.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM AKDT     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:00 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:44 PM AKDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:32 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:47 PM AKDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.