Thursday, July19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:57AMSunset 11:14PM Wednesday July 18, 2018 10:07 PM AKDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190046
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 pm akdt Wed jul 18 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An east-bound upper level low centered over the panhandle this
afternoon continues to depart the area, allowing for a large upper
level ridge to build in over the southern mainland. Satellite
imagery shows plenty of clear skies across southcentral this
afternoon as dry air associated with the ridge settles in.

Looking westward, a vertically stacked low over the eastern
aleutians is losing energy and slowly dissipating. Surface
observations indicate low level stratus, fog, and a few showers
are spreading in over the eastern aleutians and parts of the
akpen. A 100 knot jet positioned on the western side of this low
is working to steer it into the western gulf where it will
eventually decay.

Satellite imagery shows the rest of the bering under clouds as the
leading edge of a front associated with a kamchatka low
approaches the western aleutians.

Model discussion
Model guidance remains in great agreement with the building ridge
through the next 48 hours. Models also agree on the position of
the vertically stacked low over the eastern aleutians through the
next 24 hours, however minor disagreements arise on the rate of
decay of the low by Fri afternoon. Further out, models are showing
slight differences on the exact location of the kamchatka low as
it enters the bering Sat morning. The NAM is more aggressive and
shows the upper level center moving further eastward, while the
gfs and ec are hanging back to the west.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Saturday)
as a former colleague would say, "big bubble, no trouble", and
that certainly fits the weather pattern for southcentral for the
remainder of the week. A developing ridge of high pressure
currently located over southwest alaska slowly moves east over the
next few days while strengthening. Increased subsidence will mix
down to the surface, helping to decrease the daytime relative
humidities and sky cover. Another artifact of the strengthening
high will be rising heights, with todays model runs being 20 to 40
dkm higher than yesterday. Typically this would result in
increased surface and 850mb temperatures, but, this wasn't seen in
the numerical guidance today. Still, feel they will catch onto
this in the next few model runs.

Another item of interest is with the ridge amplification, the
eastward progression of the ridge is slower. Thus, temperatures
were lowered a few degrees for tomorrow and Thursday. Southerly
flow ahead of this feature will also help advect some marine
stratus up the cook inlet. With recent rains and warming aloft,
patchy fog will probably develop here as well and across some of
the interior valleys. Overall, Friday and Saturday look to be the
warmest days to round out the week.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
An upper level ridge will continue to build east across the
southwest mainland tonight through tomorrow leading to dry
conditions with light winds. Along the coastal areas, strong
subsidence aloft will continue to trap moisture near the surface
leading to widespread stratus and some patchy fog, especially
overnight. Skies should remain mostly clear further inland leading
to a wider diurnal temperature swing, with highs reaching the
upper 60's to low 70's over the next couple of days. A front
sweeping east across the eastern aleutians will approach the
southwest mainland tomorrow but will stall out as it runs into the
upstream ridge, though upper and mid level cloud cover will
increase along with some increasing southeasterly winds by the
beginning of the weekend.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A low pressure system currently spinning over the central and
eastern aleutians will continue to lead to overcast and rainy
conditions across the eastern half of the area. Some gusty
southeasterly winds are expected along the eastern aleutians and
western akpen tonight which should taper off through the day
tomorrow. A shortwave ridge will build in behind the eastward
moving low leading to low stratus and some patchy fog continuing
across the central bering sea and aleutians over the next couple
of days. Weak winds will lead to smooth seas promoting a good
period of fishing weather over the area. Another system tracking
northeast across the pacific will impact the western bering and
aleutians tonight spreading rain and increasing winds across the
western half of the area. A front will move east across the bering
over the next day or two before stalling out some as it runs into
high pressure to the east, lingering over the central bering and
pribilofs on Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)
This weekend's forecast continues to begin with strong upper
level ridging over the eastern half of the state. Meanwhile,
southwest alaska begins to get rain and cooler temperatures moving
in ahead of a large low over the western bering and attendant
upper level wave moving into the alaska peninsula Saturday
morning. Under the ridging across southcentral, Saturday will be
another beautiful day under sunny skies and very summer-like
temperatures. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day of this
stretch everywhere in southcentral except the copper river basin
and coastal communities. Increasingly southerly flow will
gradually transport the fog and low stratus over the gulf into the
north gulf coast. Thus, those along the coast may be dealing with
that instead and have a significantly cooler, cloudier day than
inland locations.

The negatively tilted trough moving into the alaska peninsula
Saturday slowly moves northward into bristol bay by late Sunday.

Southerly flow ahead of the trough will likely transport both the
associated cloud cover and cooler temperatures into southcentral.

This unfortunately now looks to mean Sunday will not be as sunny
a day as previous forecasts have indicated. There is some
disagreement in the models regarding that at this point, with the
ec the fastest and bringing in overcast skies Sunday morning, the
gfs is in the middle waiting until early Sunday evening with mixed
sun and clouds for most of the day, while the gem is the slowest
waiting until the predawn hours of Monday to bring in the thick
cloud cover. The gem weakens the trough much more quickly than
the other models and was largely discounted, which unfortunately
means Sunday looks like it will feature more clouds than Sun for
southcentral. The clouds will likely hold off for much of the day
in the copper river basin, with Sunday likely being the hottest
day of this stretch of beautiful weather there. Rain begins
Sunday afternoon along the kenai, moving north through the
evening. That rain begins earlier across southwest alaska as the
entire system moves northeastward.

Monday now looks to be a wet day area-wide except the copper
basin and perhaps far eastern prince william sound as both the
weakening trough and more importantly its parent upper low move
eastward into the bering coast of southwest alaska, causing
widespread rainfall. Tuesday should be a somewhat drier day from
anchorage north and west. As the upper level low moves into the
southwestern gulf, weak pulses of energy will continue to set off
scattered to widespread showers, even well north into the copper
river basin and susitna valley. Locations further south should see
the best chances for rain Tuesday being closer to the upper low
itself, but all areas will remain under threat through the day.

Wednesday will be much the same as the upper low largely stalls
somewhere over the southwestern gulf, though exactly where is
still uncertain. This should result in more isolated rainfall
activity the further inland one goes. Most coastal areas will
continue to get nearly steady rainfall, especially along the kenai
peninsula and kodiak as a stronger impulse of energy moves
northwestward into the coast.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ko
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Jw

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi72 minSE 1410.00 miFair59°F48°F69%1022 hPa

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3CalmW4SE6CalmE3CalmE4E3E5E6SE11--SE14SE13
1 day agoSW6W7SW7W8SW8SW8SW5S5S4W7SW6--W5W8W6W6W7W6W6W5W4W4CalmCalm
2 days agoW9W7W10W13

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Thu -- 01:43 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 AM AKDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:26 AM AKDT     21.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:53 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 03:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     18.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Thu -- 01:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:27 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:41 AM AKDT     3.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:53 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:27 PM AKDT     -3.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:12 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:21 PM AKDT     3.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:45 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:17 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.