Sunrise 5:01 AM   Sunset 10:50 PM Moonrise 1:46 PM   Moonset 2:31 AM

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PKZ737 Marmot Bay- 242 Pm Akdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory Saturday and Saturday night - .
Tonight - S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Sat - SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.Sat night - SE wind 25 kt becoming sw 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.Sun - W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sun night - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tue - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Wed - E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 171248 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 448 AM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong shortwave rotating south and east around a strong longwave trough over the Bering Sea will continue to move south and east into the Central Gulf of Alaska today and weaken further as it pushes into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska on Saturday. A weak surface low pressure system associated with the shortwave is currently located 100 nm east of Kodiak Island and will weaken further as it moves over the Gulf of Alaska today and over the southern Panhandle this evening. Rain showers currently noted on Radar over the Northern Gulf of Alaska, Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula will diminish today as weak ridging both aloft and at the surface push into the Gulf of Alaska and merge with High Pressure noted over the Yukon and Eastern Alaska.

The break between storms in the Gulf of Alaska will be short lived as a strong low over Bristol Bay and supported by a deep and unseasonably cold upper level low pressure system over the Bering Sea will strengthen on Saturday as it pushes east over the AK Peninsula on Saturday and over Kodiak Island Sunday morning. Ahead of the low a surface ridge will push north into the northern Gulf of Alaska and will bring some breaks in the clouds as slightly warmer temperatures. Gusty southeasterly winds will pick up again as the coastal ridge develops ahead of the low entering the Gulf.

Through the day on Saturday the strong and unseasonably cold upper level low will slide from the Bering Sea into the western Gulf of Alaska, sending another period of precipitation back into Kodiak Island. As the upper low and accompanying surface low move into the western Gulf, precipitation will also overspread the eastern Kenai Peninsula through Sunday morning. Confidence remains low in regards to the northern extent of precipitation through Sunday as there is still disagreement among model guidance on where the upper low ejects into the Gulf; a moderate, more steady rain may also make it further north into the Prince William Sound and other areas along the coast of Southcentral Alaska. The Eastern Kenai and Prince William sound will see the heaviest precipitation while the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu will see lesser amounts with drying downslope flow and gusty southeasterly gap flows.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

The forecast remains largely on track, with only minor updates to wind speed and precipitation type/amounts. The low that brought rain to parts of Southwest Alaska overnight is weakening as it exits into the Gulf. While much of Southwest Alaska remains under overcast skies, radar shows that precipitation has largely tapered off. The only major item of note this early morning for Southwest is a bank of fog and low stratus currently making its way into Kuskokwim Delta.

A different story is unfolding in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, where satellite imagery shows a low in the Northwest Bering, a North Pacific low near Amchitka, and a front extending between these two features. Much of the action this morning is currently over the Central Aleutians, where light rain has just begun to fall. Few impacts are expected for the Central Aleutians; the front will still be fairly weak as it moves across the Central Aleutians through the early afternoon. Instead, the brunt of the stronger winds and heavier precipitation will be felt in the Eastern Aleutians and Southwest Alaska on Saturday as the lows merge and draw in moisture from the North Pacific.

While this storm system doesn't look to be exceptionally impactful, there are a few items of note. One is that gusty southeasterly winds will overspread much of Southwest Alaska through Saturday, with the strongest winds (gusts of up to 50 mph)
expected in interior Bristol Bay near Kamishak Gap. Winds will be enhanced by the terrain as well as a tightened pressure gradient between higher pressure in the Gulf and lower pressure near Bristol Bay. Secondly, cold air in place ahead of this approaching front will likely lead to light snow for Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast from tonight into Saturday morning. The current forecast is for about 2 inches of snow, though daytime highs ranging from the mid 30s through low 40s should help to melt the snow before day's end.

Further west, the Central and Western Bering/Aleutians will see active but generally low impact weather as two weak storm systems move through, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. The stronger of these two systems will be Sunday's, which will bring winds at small craft speed (25 kt) and light rain, as opposed to sub-small craft wind speeds and scattered rain showers for Sunday's system.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The extended forecast looks to be a brief transitional period as the longwave pattern reloads itself. Currently the pattern is driven by an anchoring trough over Siberia with a cold pool extending into the Bering Sea and southwest Mainland. Over the weekend, a new stronger shortwave trough propagates within the east Asian jet and into the Bering Sea which will re-orient the longwave trough to look much the same as it currently does despite the first system moving from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. For Southcentral Alaska, the northern extent of the Gulf low pressure will potentially bring rain to coastal areas but leave interior areas dry with continued clouds and slightly below normal temperatures over the weekend.

What does this mean for sensible weather? Another slug of tropical moisture will bring rain to the southwest Mainland and Aleutians early next week along with gusty southerly winds. The building ridge ahead of that front will bring at least of day of drier possibly sunny weather, however, with the trough out west positioned over the Bering Sea it is more likely than not that we get another disturbance or moisture plume over Southcentral, but confidence is lower and uncertainty high as the pattern transitions. Stay tuned.

MTL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist on Friday as a weak low over the Gulf of Alaska departs the region to the southeast.
Winds should remain light and below 10 knots.

BL

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Andreon Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:31 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:33 AM AKDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM AKDT     8.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:30 PM AKDT     1.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Andreon Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Carry Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:32 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:33 AM AKDT     3.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:21 AM AKDT     9.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 PM AKDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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