Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 10:11 PM Moonrise 3:55 AM   Moonset 12:39 PM

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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.Tonight - NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Thu and Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Fri - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sat - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sun - N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 021445 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 645 AM AKDT Thu May 2 2024


SYNOPSIS
The North Slope will remain much colder than normal with areas of flurries and fog through the weekend.

The West Coast and Western Interior will remain dry, cold and windy north of the Seward Peninsula through the weekend, while the Seward Peninsula south will be seasonal temperatures with a chance of showers today through Fri, then cooling and becoming wetter over the weekend.

The Eastern Interior will be drier and slightly warmer today than Wednesday. Fri will remain dry and warm slightly, but will become windier and warmer near the Alaska Range. Conditions will warm above normal over the weekend, with a band of rain and snow stretching across the Northern Interior Fri night and Sat.

At the surface...
An Arctic cold front that lies from Chicken to Nenana to Kaltag to St Lawrence Is will move north to Eagle to Galena to Nome this afternoon, then to Circle to Unalakleet on Fri, and to Old Crow to the Yukon Delta on Sat. There will be isolated rain and snow showers along this front today that will taper off tonight.
Showers will reinvigorate along this frontal boundary Fri night and Sat with a band of showers from Arctic Village to Bettles to the Yukon Delta late Fri night and Sat.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain in place through today, then move just north of the Alaska Range on Fri. Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to 30% along this trough over the Alaska Range today, then spreading over the Tanana Valley on Fri and Sat.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range late Fri and continuing into Sat before diminishing Sat night and Sun. This will cause south winds to gust to 30 mph along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri afternoon along with warming and drying conditions, then increasing to gusts to 40 mph Fri night and continuing into Sat, before decreasing Sat night.
This will the bring the near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south Fri late afternoon/evening into Sat, with the Red Flag conditions most likely on Sat.

DISCUSSION
At 00Z. models all initialize 10-20 meters too low on heights across much of Alaska, meaning that the ridge that lies from SE Alaska to NW is a bit stronger than models indicate. That will probably result in a lower chance of showers over much of Nrn AK today other than SW AK and the Eastern North Slope. Models show similar solutions aloft through Sun. Will use a blend of models for feature aloft but lessen the chance of showers over the Interior and NW AK today and tonight to account for the stronger than forecast ridge.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range late Fri and continuing into Sat before diminishing Sat night and Sun.

With precipitation, will use a blend of models for areal coverage and amounts. Little if any precip today through Fri other than isolated to scattered showers over SW AK and flurries over the Eastern North Slope. Will see scattered rain and snow showers developing over the NE Interior Fri night, with scattered to numerous rain showers over the SW Interior and YK Delta Fri night.
By Sat expect a band of showers stretching from the YK Delta to Barter Island, with all snow Brooks Range north. Could see several inches of snow from the Brooks Range North on Sat.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well. Models show similar solutions through Sat with fair agreement into Sun. Will use a blend of the NAM and Canadian models for surface features and winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
An Arctic cold front that lies from Chicken to Nenana to Kaltag will move north to Eagle to Galena to Nome this afternoon, then to Circle to Unalakleet on Fri, and to Old Crow to the Yukon Delta on Sat. There will be isolated rain and snow showers along this front today that will taper off tonight. Showers will reinvigorate along this frontal boundary Fri night and Sat with a band of showers from Arctic Village to Bettles to the Yukon Delta late Fri night and Sat.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain in place through today, then move just north of the Alaska Range on Fri. Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to 30% along this trough over the Alaska Range today, then spreading north over the Tanana Valley on Fri and Sat.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range late Fri will continue into Sat before diminishing Sat night and Sun. This will cause south winds to gust to 25 mph along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri afternoon along with warming and drying conditions, with winds increasing to gusts to 40 mph Fri night and continuing into Sat, before decreasing Sat night. This will the bring the near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south Fri late afternoon/evening into Sat, with the Red Flag conditions most likely on Sat.

HYDROLOGY
An ice jam on the Tanana River 6 miles downstream of Manley Hot Springs is causing minor flooding along Manley Hot Springs Slough. Flooding is not expected to worsen from what is now occuring.

on the Yukon River an observer 23 miles upstream of Eagle said that the Yukon there broke up Tuesday afternoon. Ice began flowing but within a few hours had stopped flowing and an ice jam formed. Yukon rose to near mid-summer high levels and was continuing to rise slowly. Due to current river levels and ice conditions, the threat for flooding has diminished in the area around Eagle. However, ice jams can still pose a localized threat in the areas immediately around where they form.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.

Black Rock
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:58 AM AKDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:53 AM AKDT     8.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:12 PM AKDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM AKDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:14 AM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM AKDT     9.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:41 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:06 PM AKDT     3.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:42 PM AKDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska, Tide feet

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