Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Togiak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:48AMSunset 6:40PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 3:18 AM AKDT (11:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 354 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 16 2017
.small craft advisory Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Tonight..S wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue night..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Togiak, AK
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location: 58.7, -160.18     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 162318
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
318 pm akdt Mon oct 16 2017

Discussion
Models... Trending toward colder pattern next couple days.

Initialized well against the 16 18z surface analysis. Run to run
solutions remain very good in the short term and midrange. Some
significant discrepancies in the extended periods over the
aleutians that will need to be worked out over time. Models have
handled the low dropping out of the high arctic similarly with not
much spread in location or strength. Temperature guidance is not
very good, and in particular is not handling low temperatures well
since many areas remain snow free on the ground. Will utilize a
blend of the solutions for precipitation and will lean on
continuity for temperatures but need to make some changes to match
current trends.

Aloft... At 500 hpa... Stacked low that has been over the gulf of
anadyr the last few days continues to weaken and will eventually
merge with the low dropping out of the arctic. The low dropping
out of the arctic is 100 nm north of banks island at 495 dam and
will move southwest to be over point barrow by Thursday morning at
496 dam, and over the seward peninsula by Friday afternoon at 500
dam. Ridging west of 160w in the arctic and over the chukchi sea
will continue to be pushed west as the low moves southwest and
will be west of 180 by Tuesday evening. Weak ridging over the
southwest mainland with a 525 dam center will continue to weaken
and move east tonight and merge with ridging over the gulf of
alaska. A shortwave associated with the arctic low is moving over
the arctic coast this afternoon and will continue to rotate around
the low. A second shortwave will move to the coast on Tuesday
afternoon, and a third on Wednesday morning. A 513 dam low over
the central aleutians will move rapidly east through Thursday
then dissipate over the southeast panhandle. At 850 hpa... Zero
isotherm south of the state. The low over the canadian archipelago
continues to spin colder air south and the -10 isotherm lies from
dawson yt to anaktuvuk pass to CAPE lisburne this afternoon, and
will lie from dawson yt to bettles to teller and west by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday morning it will lie from chalkyitsik to
Monday morning. By Tuesday morning it will lie almost entirely
south of out forecast area. The -20 isotherm approaches the
central and eastern arctic coast Wednesday.

Surface... Weak high pressure over southwest mainland and eastern
interior will weaken and pull back over the northeast pacific and
yukon territory. Weak high pressure over the western brooks range
will pull back to the west. A weak trough over the seward
peninsula extends east over the upper yukon flats and will
continue to expand as broad area of troughing develops between the
991 mb low near banks island, and the 975 mb low over the western
aleutians. The low near banks island will remain stationary
through the evening, then move north Tuesday rotating west then
south to be over point barrow by early Thursday morning. A rapidly
developing low 500 nm north of point barrow will move to 150 nm
north of point barrow by Tuesday morning at 998 mb and over the
central arctic plain by Tuesday evening. High pressure west of
160w and over the chukchi sea will weaken and be pushed west as
the low drops out of the arctic to the coast. The low in the
western aleutians will move to 100 nm south of cold bay by Tuesday
morning, and into the northeast pacific Tuesday night. The low
over banks island will continue to move south after moving over
the coast Thursday and will be over kotzebue sound by Thursday
afternoon at 993 mb.

Arctic coast and brooks range... Could be very interesting Tuesday
as the low sitting high in the arctic moves to the central coast.

Winds will increase from point barrow west and winter weatehr
advisories remain in place for zones 201 and 202. Conditions will
be improving on the eastern arctic coast by morning. Snowfall
amounts 2 to 4 inches but may be up to 6 inches depending on
development of the low and how much moisture it will pick up. The
open water factor, no sea ice within 500 nm of most of the arctic
coast, will have unknown impact on the moisture values. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 becoming north 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds
between point lay and point barrow.

West coast and western interior... Quiet period overall. Some
sprinkles or flurries with mostly cloudy conditions. Patchy fog
along the rivers in the morning. Winds generally variable to 10
mph through Tuesday. Temperatures slightly cooler.

Central and eastern interior... Cloudy with some flurries this
evening, then some light snow developing early Tuesday morning
with up to 2 inches of snow possible. Heaviest snow will be in the
white mountains and upper chena river basin east of two rivers.

Patchy fog. Generally light winds. Temperatures will continue the
cooling trend with lows falling to around 20 and high around 30 in
fairbanks and vicinity. Coldest temperatures will be north of the
yukon river where lows will fall to zero to -10. Much cooler
temperatures for the end of the week through the weekend across
the area.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7... Saturday through Monday models
remain in good agreement. They are currently having issues with
the potential of an extra tropical system being caught in the flow
and moving rapidly over the aleutians.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory for akz201-akz202-akz204.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz240-pkz245-pkz505-pkz510.

Small craft advisory for pkz240-pkz245.

Sdb oct 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Togiac Village, Togiak Airport, AK27 mi23 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast34°F33°F97%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from ATG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----CalmCalmCalm--N4----CalmSE3----------N5N3N3N6----N5
1 day ago--NW4--N3NW3--N3----S3------W11W6----W4NW3--N4----Calm
2 days agoE7--CalmN6----N7--------S4--------W4W4--Calm--Calm--N3

Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Black Rock
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Tue -- 03:45 AM AKDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM AKDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:15 PM AKDT     7.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM AKDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.85.77.48.48.67.96.54.62.71.30.81.42.74.35.97.17.77.56.553.31.91.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska
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Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:01 AM AKDT     8.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:04 AM AKDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:40 PM AKDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM AKDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.156.98.18.68.27.25.74.22.81.81.41.834.666.76.96.35.34.23.22.42

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.