Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Togiak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 12:50 AM AKDT (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:47AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 332 Pm Akdt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory Tuesday night...
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tue..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Wed and Wed night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Togiak, AK
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location: 58.7, -160.18     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 222352
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
352 pm akdt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Aloft...

a long wave trough over the bering sea will move to the
eastern bering and west coast of alaska Wed and then progress
east to cover the interior of alaska on thu. With a strong ridge
building over NW canada Wed we will see the flow aloft turn
southwest on Tue and south on Wed then decreasing on thu. This
will feed a series of short wave troughs and their attendant
surface systems northward over northern alaska through the week
with a wet weak in store for the west coast and western interior.

This will also cause a moderate to strong chinook wind event on
the north side of the alaska range Wed and Wed night.

Weak instability near eagle and near galena will allow a few
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in those areas today. After that
no thunderstorms through the weekend.

Surface...

a 1011 mb low 300 nm northwest of barrow will move northeast
tonight and tue. This will cause stratus and flurries/fog to
persist along most of the arctic coast through tue.

A 1000 mb low near bettles will move to coldfoot as a 1004 mb low
by 4am tue... Then to near arctic village as a 1008 mb low by 4pm
tue. A warm front extending east from this low will move to
coldfoot to inuvik by 4am Tue then dissipate. A cold front
stretching from the low to chicken will move to coldfoot to eagle
by 4am Tue then dissipate over the NE interior Tue pm.

There are widespread showers now between the warm front and cold
front and wrapping around around south of the low. Expect .10 to
.50 inch of rain in this area tonight with the heaviest amounts
near the low center. Showers will become scattered tonight over
the tanana valley southwest of the cold front.

An occluded front stretching from gambell to king salmon will move
to kotzebue to mcgrath by 4am tue... To point hope to denali by
4pm tue... To wainwright to old crow by 4am Wed and then moving
north of the arctic coast Wed pm. There are rain showers along
this front now that will change to to scattered showers late
tonight and spread northeast with the front Tue and wed. There are
snow showers mixed on with the rain along the west coast.

A strong low in the southwest bering sea will move to the central
bering sea as a 993 mb low by 4pm tue... Then to near st matthew
island as a 1000 mb low by 4pm wed... And then moving east and
dissipating thu. An occluded front stretching from the low to st
paul island will move to the northern bering sea by 4am tue... To
the bering strait to koyuk to anvik by 4pm tue... To point hope to
kaltag to a 1002 mb front wave low near anvik by 4am wed... And to
cape lisburne to a 996 mb wave low near kotzebue with a cold front
from kotzebue to mcgrath by 4pm wed. The wave low will move to
near point hope as 992 mb low by 4am Thu with a cold front from
point hope to delta junction. At 4 pm Thu the low will drift west
with the cold front front from barrow to barter island to
northway.

Expect rain and snow along the occluded front with all snow above
2000 feet on Tue and Tue night. Will see significant precipitation
along the frontal wave over the western interior Tue night through
wed night. Rain will be mixed with snow along the west coast and
along the cold front... With all snow above 1000-2000 feet. Could
see 2 inches of snow along the west coast Wed and Wed night...

3-5 inches of snow Wed and Wed night above 2000 feet in the
western brooks range and other areas of the western and central
interior.

Discussion
Deterministic models initialize well and show similar solutions
through thu. Exception is the precipitation field where the nam
significantly under forecasts the area of precipitation. Will use
the GFS for most fields through thu.

The long wave trough moves over mainland alaska by Fri with slow
retrogression next weekend as the long wave ridge builds over nw
canada and interior ak sun-mon. The ecmf retrogression is slower
than what we see on the new gfs. The ecmf has been more consistent
moving the long wave trough east in the shorter term, and the gfs
and NAM just caught up with it today, so we prefer the slower
retrogression shown by the ecmf on the weekend.

Fire weather
Moderate to strong chinook wind event on the north side of the
alaska range Wed and Wed night.

Hydrology
Break up done most areas south of brooks range. Break up appears
to be proceeding normally north of brooks.

Rivers generally low in the interior. Expect .10 to .50 inch of
rain in NE interior tonight with the heaviest amounts near the
low center.

Will see significant precipitation along the frontal wave over
the western interior Tue night through Wed night but since rain
will be mixed with snow along the west coast and along the cold
front do not expect flooding issues.

Afg watches/warnings/advisories
Small craft advisory for pkz210.

Jb may 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Togiac Village, Togiak Airport, AK27 mi2.9 hrsSSW 1410.00 miOvercast42°F33°F71%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from ATG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW10CalmCalmSE9--S12--SE7----SW7SW8SW9S7S13SW17SW12SW14
G19
SW16--SW12--SW14
1 day ago--NW6CalmN4NW4----------N4S4----S14S16--SW16SW17----SW13S12S13
2 days agoCalmSW5--CalmN3N4NW5N6N7N5----SE3E3E3--S7----SW11W12
G17
SW10W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Black Rock
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Tue -- 03:31 AM AKDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM AKDT     3.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM AKDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:50 PM AKDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.75.46.87.57.56.95.94.93.93.33.44.15.26.47.37.87.66.54.82.81.1-0.2-0.60.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska
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Hagemeister Island (north end)
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Tue -- 04:12 AM AKDT     7.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:42 AM AKDT     4.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM AKDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:55 PM AKDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.95.56.77.176.45.654.64.64.75.15.96.77.16.75.74.12.410-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.