Sunrise 4:59 AM   Sunset 10:53 PM Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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FXAK68 PAFC 182348 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 348 PM AKDT Sat May 18 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southeasterly gap winds of 20 to 35 mph through Turnagain and Knik Arms and in the Copper River Basin this afternoon will slowly diminish tonight as a front over the Gulf lifts northward.
Cloud cover and upslope showers along the coast will increase in coverage through early tonight as the pattern turns wetter and relatively cooler for Sunday and Monday.

A surface low currently located over the Alaska Peninsula with strong upper level support and an unseasonably cold upper level low continues to push eastward and will be over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning. This is currently sending another period of precipitation back into the island. As the upper low and accompanying surface low move into the western Gulf, precipitation will also overspread the eastern Kenai Peninsula and into the Prince William Sound through Sunday morning. As the upper low hugs the coast and moves inland, shortwaves on its western periphery will allow precipitation to fill in over the Copper River Basin late Sunday into Monday. The Eastern Kenai and Prince William sound will see the heaviest precipitation, while the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu will see lesser amounts with drying downslope flow and, while not as strong as Saturday, gusty southeasterly gap winds returning during the afternoon Sunday. With unseasonably cold temperatures aloft, any heavier precipitation rates may allow some snow to mix in with the rain in the Copper River Basin Sunday night. The low continues to weaken on Monday as it pushes north and east into the Northeast Gulf of Alaska, with unsettled conditions over Southcentral continuing, especially in the Copper River Basin. Expect decreasing clouds and precipitation on Monday night and early Tuesday as a weak ridge builds into the northern Gulf of Alaska.

A low over the Bering pushes another front into Southcentral Tuesday morning, with rain likely overspreading much of Southcentral by late Tuesday afternoon. With a more southerly/southwesterly flow aloft, the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl, and MatSu looks to see some rain with this system as well.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This Afternoon through Tuesday Evening)...

The forecast remains on track in the short-term. The negatively tilted trough and upper-level low will continue to move eastward to the Gulf of Alaska tonight and through Sunday. Shower activity over the Southwestern mainland will begin to taper off Sunday as the energy and low pressure shifts to the Gulf. Showers could still persist through Sunday for interior locations of Southwest as weak shortwaves wrap around the Gulf low.

Out west, a series of Kamchatka lows and fronts will begin to impact the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain. The first frontal system is currently over the western Bering and western Aleutians spreading rain and small craft winds as it moves to the east. This front will begin to weaken and dissipate Sunday evening before it reaches the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians. However, the second system, a Kamchatka low, will enter the western Bering by then and absorb the remnants of the weakening front as it continues to move eastward. This now energized front will make it to the Pribilof Islands Monday morning. Light to moderate rain can be expected to accompany this system as well as small craft winds. The majority of precipitation will fall along the Pribilofs with eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula seeing scattered showers for Monday.

The front of the now central Bering low will reach the southwestern mainland coast by Monday afternoon. Coastal Bristol Bay and coastal Kuskokwim Delta look to receive the most precipitation with the heaviest falling Monday evening and through the overnight hours. The front continues pushing eastward and inland through Tuesday with interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing steady rain throughout the day. As the now occluded low continues working eastward, cold air could sneak back in to the Kuskokwim Delta coast and especially Nunivak Island, where there could be a period of rain/snow mix before temperatures warm through the day. Another, potentially gale- force, North Pacific low looks to impact the western Aleutians and western Bering starting Tuesday evening with rain and gusty winds.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A persistent northwest to southeast oriented longwave trough will remain over the Bering with a shortwave on the southern terminus bending into the northern Gulf through Sunday. A second upper level low will move from Kamchatka into the central Bering on Tuesday followed by a third on Thursday. This series of low pressure systems will bring gusty wind, coastal rain showers and interior cloudy and isolated rain showers. Toward the end of next week, an area of high pressure will push from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea and nudge the longstanding trough eastward.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Strong southeasterly winds out of Turnagain are expected to persist past midnight tonight. It does look like the Turnagain Arm winds will then turn down the Inlet as a low moves along the southern Kenai Peninsula overnight and turns the pressure gradient down-Inlet. There is the potential for some wind shear when this happens, but it will likely be above 2000 ft.

Morakas Point
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Sat -- 12:10 AM AKDT     13.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:51 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:12 PM AKDT     15.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:34 PM AKDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 12:14 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:48 AM AKDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:52 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:58 AM AKDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:10 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:59 PM AKDT     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:32 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:41 PM AKDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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