Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 9:42PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:02 AM AKDT (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 7:41PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200422
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
822 pm akdt Sat aug 19 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A cold upper level trough continues to encompass much of mainland
alaska and into the north pacific ocean. A bowling ball upper
level low is currently centered over the seward peninsula. With
no prominent forcing features, generally weak scattered showers
have been occurring across the southcentral and southwest mainland
this morning and the region is enjoying a brief break from the
soggy weather pattern this week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
continues to prevail across much of the west and central bering
with a broad stratus deck.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement for the short term and are all
indicating that the low will progress into the western gulf on
Sunday afternoon and support the development of a coastal low
level jet. By Tuesday, models begin to diverge with the nam
indicating a much more potent low in the southern gulf of alaska,
while the GFS and ECMWF indicate a weaker low.

Aviation
Panc... The main concern for this afternoon will be ceiling height.

Currently diurnal heating is partly mixing out the cloud deck
across the anchorage airport, but ceilings may lower into the
evening hours. Very light southeasterly winds are expected out of
turnagain arm starting later tonight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The majority of southcentral alaska is experiencing a brief break
in the persistent august rainfall this evening as the shortwave
responsible for last night's rain has moved northeast. While some
stubborn showers will remain this evening over the alaska range
and talkeetna mountains, the majority of the precipitation has
shifted east to the eastern chugach and wrangell mountains.

Overnight tonight, the next low to impact the area will enter the
southwestern gulf of alaska. This system consists of the
reinvigorated remnants of tropical cyclone banyan phased with an
upper-level arctic low dropping south over the alaska peninsula.

The low will push a front through the gulf tonight, reaching the
northern gulf coast by early tomorrow morning. This front will
bring moderate to heavy rain to the gulf coast Sunday morning
through Sunday night. In addition to the rainfall, a gale force
coastal jet will develop along the northern gulf, peaking in
intensity Sunday evening. As the low pressure system retreats
southward to the north pacific Monday and the front along the
northern gulf coast weakens, expect rainfall and winds to taper
off throughout the day Monday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper low itself will continue to descend into southwest
alaska. With the models still pinging into a due south trajectory
for the low, expect the cold pool directly over southwest with
only a hint of re-curvature on Monday. The jet will track over
the ak peninsula. Late Sunday into early Monday, a tight pressure
gradient will materialize as the low departs for the gulf of
alaska and a ridge builds in resulting in gusty winds over
bristol bay.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure over the northern bering will result in widespread
stable conditions north of the aleutians. Meanwhile, the remnants
of an occluded front south of the archipelago will bring showers
into the vicinity of the aleutians... But the ridge is acting as a
buffer blocking much of the precipitation shield. Expect the
surface low to track eastward into the gulf of alaska. Sunday
night and Monday expect a gap wind event south of the ak
peninsula.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Tuesday night, there will
be a closed upper low over the far southeastern gulf of alaska
with a mobile shortwave trough over the central bering sea. In
between these systems there will be a shortwave ridge axis nosing
into southern alaska with an anchoring trough centered over the
north slope of alaska. This pattern will be the end of a short
quiescent break in the weather. By Wednesday afternoon, the trough
over the bering sea will merge with the anchoring trough over the
north slope with increasing southwest upper level flow ushering in
more clouds and rain to southern alaska. This cloudier and wetter
pattern looks to persist through Friday, although uncertainty
grows by this period as the GFS and ECMWF differ with respect to
the position of the trough and the degree of interior downslope
flow. Coastal locations, especially near the gulf of alaska, will
be wet, but by Thursday and Friday it looks like there is a
possibility that downslope drying dramatically limits interior
precipitation, especially in the ECMWF solution. For now a middle
ground solution will be favored, depicting coastal rain into the
weekend and more showery conditions inland by the end of the week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 119 120 130 131.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... En
southcentral alaska... Rd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S5S5SE5S6S4SW3S5S4S4S3CalmSE4SE7SE6SE5CalmS4SW6S3W4W5Calm
1 day agoS11S10S8SW8S9S7SW6SW15
G20
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SW9S8S4NW6W9W12W11
G17
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2 days agoS9SE7S7S5S4SW7SW5S6SW6S7S9S10S7S5S6S11S9S8S8S9S10S11
G17
S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Naknek River, Alaska
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Entrance
Click for MapNote: No low water falls below -2 feet.

Sun -- 04:07 AM AKDT     24.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM AKDT     3.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 PM AKDT     20.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM AKDT     -2.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.810.817.722.824.92421.317.312.88.45.23.95.910.615.819.520.41915.811.66.92.4-1.1-2.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:20 AM AKDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:03 AM AKDT     2.36 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:56 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:17 PM AKDT     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:14 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:41 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:34 PM AKDT     3.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.81.80.3-1.2-2.2-2.6-2.5-2.2-1.7-0.41.52.41.91.1-0.1-1.5-2.6-3-2.9-2.3-1.6-0.41.63.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.