Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:40AMSunset 11:13PM Friday May 26, 2017 4:36 PM AKDT (00:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:08AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 261712
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
912 am akdt Fri may 26 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A broad upper level trough remains over the majority of the aor,
with some ridging building over the far western bering, and
another ridge ahead of the trough over the pacific northwest. The
trough remains evident on IR satellite imagery, with the clearing
line transiting further east over the yakutat area. A few
lingering showers continue to tapper off over some of the
mountains along the northern gulf coast, alaska range, and
talkeetna mountains. Further west, a surface low just south of
cold bay continues to bring some rain and gusty winds to the
alaska peninsula.

Model discussion
Overall model guidance seems to be in good synoptic agreement
with each other. Larger differences start to occur as we move
into the weekend, and watch the evolution of a strong wave moving
out of the bering. American models seems to be charging the way
with regards to this feature, both faster and deeper than the
canadian and european solutions. By Sunday afternoon, model spread
increases both at the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere,
decreasing overall confidence as we go into the holiday weekend
and into next week.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southerly winds will continue through this afternoon
and evening. Some showers are possible again this afternoon and
evening as well, butVFR conditions should prevail.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Clouds and showers will be on the increase yet again today as a
weak short- wave moves up from the gulf. However, the flow will be
different than yesterday, with southerly flow this morning
backing toward the southeast in the afternoon. The areas most
likely to see showers will be from western prince william sound
across the kenai peninsula to the western susitna valley, with
isolated to scattered showers across the remainder of the region.

Also, upper level temperatures will gradually warm so the
atmosphere will not be as unstable as Friday, though still
unstable enough to produce some locally heavy rainfall.

Attention will then shift to a low pressure system south of the
alaska peninsula. An upper level short-wave dropping southeastward
across the eastern bering sea today will re-invigorate this low
as it continues south of the alaska peninsula tonight, amplifying
the flow. This will spread rain northward from kodiak island to
the north gulf coast tonight through Saturday. Flow will shift
solidly to southeast leading to downslope drying in the lee of the
kenai and chugach mountains. Thus, the bulk of rain will be
confined to the coast along with upslope areas along the west side
of cook inlet and the susitna valley. Even if it stays dry inland
cloud cover will be fairly extensive, so temperatures will remain
on the cool side.

Looking to Sunday, the upper trough will evolve into a closed low
and lift northward into southwest alaska. Depending on the exact
track (and direction of flow over southcentral), there is
potential for rain to spread inland.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Southwest alaska will remain in a generally troughy pattern for
the next several days bringing a continuation of the present cool
showery weather pattern. While the trough that moved through
yesterday is now clear of the area allowing showers to weaken
somewhat and become less frequent, a surface low south of the
alaska peninsula and tracking east will spread additional moisture
north into southwest alaska. Showers will reintensify and
increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as solar heating
aids instability. A trough associated with the surface low will
rotate across bristol bay this evening and extend north into
southwest alaska where it will remain stalled tonight through
Saturday. The surface low will begin drifting slowly north
Saturday night to move into southwest alaska on Sunday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The surface low currently south of the western tip of the alaska
peninsula will continue east then stall over the southwestern
gulf. A flat ridge bringing low stratus and patchy fog will
progress from the western aleutians bering east to the central
aleutian bering tonight and to the eastern aleutians amplifying
northwest across the pribilof islands Saturday and Saturday night.

The next frontal system will reach the western aleutians late and
continue east to the central aleutians Saturday night where it
will stall through Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The extended forecast begins on Monday with the cut off low that
is poised to develop near kodiak island this weekend lifting
northward through western alaska. This will occur as part of an
amplification of the large scale pattern over the course of the
next week, with a sprawling longwave trough encompassing the
bering sea and western mainland as a stout ridge builds over
western canada. Forecast confidence remains lower than normal as
models continue to diverge on the smaller scale details, but this
synoptic pattern will generally result in continued cloudy and
showery conditions across the southern mainland as broad onshore
flow remains focused along the gulf coast between the large scale
features. Benign showery conditions can also be expected over much
of the bering beneath the upper trough. Temperatures will
gradually climb back to around normal through the week as the cut
off low departs into the arctic at the beginning of the week and
scours out what remains of the colder air aloft.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tp
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi42 minSSE 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F37°F64%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW20
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SW13SW9SW4S3S3S5SE4SE4CalmCalmSE6CalmNE3CalmSE7SW6E5SE8
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1 day agoSW17
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SW13SW10SW10S8S9S10S9S9S7S10S8SW9SW15
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2 days agoS17SE14SE12S11SE13SE11SE12S14S16S12
G19
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G20
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G19
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G23
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Naknek River, Alaska
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Entrance
Click for MapNote: No low water falls below -2 feet.

Fri -- 12:02 AM AKDT     -2.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM AKDT     25.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM AKDT     4.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:31 PM AKDT     19.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.8-0.84.712.118.923.825.524.421.317.112.68.45.34.26.311.116.219.419.717.814.39.750.7

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM AKDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:17 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM AKDT     -2.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:20 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:07 PM AKDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:47 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:07 PM AKDT     -3.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:09 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.52.91.90.5-1.1-2.1-2.5-2.4-2.1-1.7-0.61.22.11.70.9-0.3-1.7-2.7-3-2.8-2.1-1.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.