Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Saturday June 23, 2018 10:13 AM AKDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231316
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
516 am akdt Sat jun 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The persistent bering sea trough is finally beginning to weaken
and retrograde westward this morning. Weak upper level southerly
flow continues this morning over southern alaska, but this is no
longer connected to the moisture stream, so showers and rain have
largely ended with only low level clouds remaining. Water vapor
satellite imagery depicts a rather impressive looking low
amplitude shortwave lifting north along the alcan. This shortwave
will eventually become a weather maker for southcentral this
weekend in the form of an "easterly wave". Near 50n south of the
gulf of alaska, an impressive cyclone is moving toward the
panhandle while a warm front is moving toward the far western

Model discussion
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
general synoptic pattern heading deep into the next week. However,
they are performing terribly with a series of easterly waves
which are now expected to impact most of interior southcentral
through the weekend. The trend in the numerical models has
continued to be stronger which each set of runs, although there
are still disparities in the individual models. Net effect,
expect more clouds and precipitation chances inland this weekend,
especially over the copper basin and into the susitna valley. A
mix of all the models was favored for this forecast to account for
the uncertainty on the track strength of the easterly waves
moving across southcentral this weekend into early next week.

Panc... MVFR stratus is going to float in and out of the terminal
this morning before likely scattering back out in the afternoon.

Shower threats will move into the terminal overnight and into
Sunday morning, but there is low confidence on this happening at
this time. Winds will be variable and less than 10 knots.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (today through Monday)
Showers moving over the south mainland from a series of easterly
waves will be the primary weather makers this weekend. The first
round of showers is already developing over the copper river
basin, which will continue developing over the course of this
morning as it spreads westward this evening. For the most part
though, conditions should remain generally cloudy but dry other
than a stray shower or two from kenai peninsula northward into the
anchorage bowl matsu valley's until late this evening. The models
have all trended stronger with the first easterly wave beginning
late tonight into Sunday, allowing for increasing chances of
showers to the west of the talkeetnas into Sunday. At this point
it appears that the lions share of the wetting rains should remain
over the susitna valley on Sunday, but it wouldn't be out of the
question for this to spread slightly further south into the
matanuska valley or even the anchorage bowl as the NAM is
suggesting. Forecast confidence then begins to fall further on
Monday as the models are all over the place with the timing of
weak easterly waves that will continue pushing through the south
mainland, so the pop forecast after this weekend is painted with a
broad brush.

Chances for thunderstorms will also be increasing as the weekend
progresses and instability steadily gets stronger with each
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms were added to the forecast for
the wrangell's ak range this afternoon, which will then spread
westward into the talkeetnas for Sunday. Marginal instability
then persists with the continued easterly flow on Monday, so a
slight chance of thunderstorms was also added to the copper river
basin with the morning forecast package.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (today through Monday)
Weak low pressure over the southwest mainland will begin to
recede as some slightly higher pressure moves into the area
through the start of next week. This will likely set up a stagnant
pattern over the area, consisting of mostly cloudy conditions and
some showers and isolated thunderstorms along the alaska range
each afternoon and evening this weekend. The next front will
approach from the bering sea early next week, but will be
weakening as it approaches the southwest coast. Expect
temperatures slightly above normal through the weekend, and light
winds for the period.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (today through Monday)
A sub-gale-force frontal system tracking into the western and
central aleutians today will continue to weaken as it pushes
further eastward through the weekend. Rain will spread across most
of the aleutian chain and southern bering sea through the
weekend, shifting to the alaska peninsula by early next week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Monday night with main feature a
low in the eastern bering sea near the pribilof islands. The
deterministic models, ensemble runs, and wpc are in agreement with
this low position and intensity through the week. The models,
ensemble and wpc remain in good agreement with the resolution of
the ridge in the gulf of alaska being squeezed and pushed to the
east as a frontal low from the bering sea low pushes into the gulf
late Wednesday. As we move out into the latter part of next week
the main low moves over the mainland as a ridge builds in behind
it over the bering sea.

This all translates to a continuation of the cool cloudy wet
pattern over the southern mainland. As the frontal low pushes
into the gulf Wednesday, more rain and clouds can be expected
along the gulf coast to kodiak island.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ja
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Sa

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi20 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F45°F80%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S9S8S8SW6W6W7CalmW7W5W6W6CalmCalmE4S6S3S3SW3CalmS4SW4SW5SW6
1 day agoSW8SW10SW9SW7SW8SW453W8SW5CalmS11S4S6S7S11S10S10S6S8S8S8S7S11

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Naknek River, Alaska
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Click for MapNote: No low water falls below -2 feet.

Sat -- 02:06 AM AKDT     21.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM AKDT     3.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:54 PM AKDT     22.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 PM AKDT     -1.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 12:07 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:25 AM AKDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:46 AM AKDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:55 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:33 PM AKDT     -3.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:32 PM AKDT     3.16 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.