Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:33AMSunset 3:08PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:38 PM AKST (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 7:40PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 352 Pm Akst Tue Dec 11 2018
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt decreasing late. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers early in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wed..NE wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.
Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Snow and rain showers.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 120131 cca
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
255 pm akst Tue dec 11 2018

Short term Snow showers have returned to portions SE alaska
this afternoon. Cold air advecting in from the west is helping to
produce both rain and snow showers. The convection becomes
enhanced due to the temperatures difference between the sea
surface and the cold air aloft, aka ocean effect. With broad w-sw
onshore flow, the showers have the best lift when they hit
mountain slopes facing that direction, ie. Juneau. Expecting some
accumulation out of these showers, 1-4 inches, amounts will be
highly variable since the showers will be scattered intermittent
at times. Other locations will see rain showers become mixed with
snow through the evening as the CAA reaches them, even the
southern panhandle should have some flakes, but little to no
accumulation.

The convection is strong enough to produce some lightning as well.

Strikes have been detected west of yakutat over baranof island,
and to a larger extent over the n. Pacific and haida gwaii. The
risk of thunderstorms remains through tonight, even over portions
of the inner channels. Ice pellets or graupel are typical with
showers like this, even if snow is not.

On Wednesday, a low will track ene across the southern gulf. The
surface low looks to have more than one center and may rotate
about eachother in a fujiwara effect. This tends to complicate
things as models struggle with which low to be most dominant, and
each usually picks a different one. We've stayed with the status
quo for the wind forecast overall. The GFS was a bit too strong
and the NAM was the slowest furthest south. Still, models agree
that there will be a frontal band with high end gale force winds
over the gulf and into the ocean entrances. The band rotates
north, starting over the southern panhandle mid-morning and
spreading north to juneau by evening. The position of the low puts
the northern half of the panhandle under some offshore flow,
resulting in lower pop. However, if the further northern model
tracks win out, then even haines skagway will get into the action.

For now have left them at a chance as the low center shifts east
over the central panhandle on Thursday. After the low departs,
showers will linger on Thursday, but should be much fewer and far
between.

Long term Thursday through Monday ... Active weather pattern
continues through the weekend. A strong low will likely be in the
eastern gulf to start Thursday. Models differ in how far north the
low will get as well as the timing and strength of the low to mid
level wave. Based on the low level wind fields and surface
gradients, looks like potentially another significant wind event
for parts of the southern panhandle at least early Thursday. Over
the north, mid level deformation and a weak to northerly surface
gradient may allow for a period of snow to fall through Thursday
morning. Exactly where and how much snow may fall will also depend
greatly on the strength and track of the 850mb to 700mb
circulation.

There is good agreement towards the weekend of the continuation of
strong pacific jet energy carving out another fairly deep
negatively tilted trough over the gulf. With the propensity to
keep some sort of ridging over bc, this will likely lead to
another period of fairly wet and potentially windy weather,
especially for the south. While cold air does begin to deepen over
interior and western alaska, there doesn't seem to be much of a
mechanism to either get the cold air across the gulf in a short
trajectory or to build substantial cold air in the yukon. Thus, a
prolonged stretch of wintry weather does not look that likely at
least through the weekend with the exception of perhaps the far
northern panhandle.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for akz027.

Strong wind Wednesday afternoon for akz022.

Strong wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for akz023.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-035-036-041>043-051. Small
craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-031>034-052-053.

Ferrin del
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi133 min S 4.1 G 7 38°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi29 min W 33 G 46 42°F 32°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi39 min 42°F 47°F989.6 hPa (+3.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------Calm--S10--S10--4--S8
1 day ago------------------------------5--E12
G22
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G20
--E15--S20
G30
2 days ago------------------------------Calm--Calm------Calm--SW12
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
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Wed -- 04:44 AM AKST     14.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:50 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:29 AM AKST     5.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:17 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:09 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:13 PM AKST     15.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:51 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:56 PM AKST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.16.39.712.614.414.713.711.79.16.85.55.579.412.114.215.214.913.210.57.34.32.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:45 AM AKST     14.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:31 AM AKST     5.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:15 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:14 PM AKST     15.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:49 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:58 PM AKST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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36.29.612.514.314.713.811.79.26.95.55.46.99.41214.215.214.913.210.67.44.32.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.