Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday August 20, 2017 7:22 AM AKDT (15:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:07AMMoonset 7:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 403 Am Akdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Today..E wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Mon..N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 201402
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
602 am akdt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis Two weather fronts approach southeast alaska with the
first pushing into the southern panhandle today and the second,
stronger front pushing into the northern panhandle late this
afternoon into tonight. These fronts herald the beginnings of an
atmospheric river, ripe with moisture from former typhoon banyan,
as it passes across southeast alaska.

Short term Merely light rain will fall across the panhandle
today but this afternoon, we expect amounts to begin to increase
panhandle wide as very warm air and deep moisture advect into the
region from our approaching atmospheric river. Rain will become
heavy tonight all across the panhandle. However, today rain may
back off a little for the north. Yet the southern panhandle will
potentially see effects of the atmospheric river from Sunday
evening into early Tuesday and possibly beyond. All told, we are
expecting 4 to 7 inches of precipitation through the period across
the southern panhandle. Freezing levels will rise to 10k feet and
higher through Monday.

Wind edits were minor and only a few were necessary. Northern lynn
canal's 25 kt southerlies lasted well past midnight, thus we had
to release the forecast with 20 kt early this morning, but as the
system approaches prince of wales island today, we expect
gradients in the north to lower quickly giving way to much lighter
winds. South of lynn canal, we do expect winds to slightly
increase as the front approaches through this evening.

Temperatures were hardly changed. Pops were raised to a definitive
100 percent through Monday to communicate confidence. We relied on
nam GFS namdng for any updates.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday the
extended forecast remains cool, wet, and fall-like. Tuesday begins
with a weather front moving across the panhandle. Periods of heavy
rain are expected on Tuesday within the southern panhandle due to
enhanced moisture directed at the area from the remnants of
tropical storm banyan. Models slowed the progression of the
heaviest band of precipitation slightly from yesterday, with total
rainfall between 0.5 to 1.5 inches forecasted Tuesday. Greatest
values are expected near ketchikan and annette island. The outer
coast and far northern panhandle will have much lower rainfall
totals with possible breaks in precipitation as the front pushes
to the southeast Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will likely be characterized by remnant
scattered shower activity over the panhandle with a break in
preciptiation likely sometime Thursday. Late Thursday night
another weather front will begin to move across the panhandle
bringing a return to rain. This front will keep conditions wet
once again next weekend. The front's exact arrival time is still
an area of uncertainty, but between late Thursday night and Friday
morning is currently the most probable.

Not many significant changes were made to the extended forecast.

Tuesday's QPF values were increased due to being in agreement with
a slowing of the heaviest band of precipitation. Tuesday's
forecast was nudged toward the 00z NAM with wpc input being used
for Wednesday and beyond as needed.

Marine An early season gale will develop in marine zone 52 as
the second front approaches the central gulf coast tonight.

Elsewhere small craft seas to 8 feet and winds of 25 to 30 kt
will plague the outside waters for much of the next twenty-four
hours. We did raise cross sound to 25 kt Sunday evening. Clarence
strait should peak at 25 kt Sunday night as well.

Hydrology Moisture from banyan's remnants (up to 3 plus
standard deviations above atmospheric normals of ivt) will begin
to spread across all sections of the panhandle by late this
afternoon. But the most concentrated area of heavy rains continues
to be forecasted for the southern panhandle, tonight into early
Tuesday. New model editions if anything seem to lower
precipitation amounts Sunday night into Monday night. However, we
believe this to be noise and see no reason to lower them at this
time. Models typically struggle with the magnitude of rainfall
during atmospheric river events. Today, a break in the
precipitation looks to occur, although the word "dry" may not
aptly describe the break, as the first front approaches the
southern panhandle and backs flow in the northern panhandle a bit
more offshore. Lower precipitation amounts last night have allowed
river and stream levels to mostly fall. However, we expect
significant rises in streams beginning tonight and continuing into
Tuesday. Special weather statements cover heavy rain and
significant rises on rivers, streams, and lakes. Flooding is not
expected, but we will continue to evaluate threats through the
event.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz052.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-036-041>043-051.

Jwa byrd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi57 min E 4.1 G 5.1 53°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi73 min E 8.9 G 12 51°F 51°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi53 min 52°F 57°F1014.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK48 mi30 minN 015.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--Calm--5----------Calm----------------------Calm
1 day ago--4--W7--W10--W12--W10--Calm----------------------Calm
2 days ago--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm------6----------------------4

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
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Sun -- 12:44 AM AKDT     18.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:22 AM AKDT     -2.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:44 PM AKDT     16.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM AKDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
17.718.216.713.38.73.8-0.1-2.2-1.90.95.19.713.616.116.615.11284.21.71.33.57.512.1

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:47 AM AKDT     18.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM AKDT     -2.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:42 PM AKDT     16.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:37 PM AKDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
17.518.216.713.48.73.7-0.4-2.6-2.40.44.79.513.716.216.715.111.97.841.61.33.47.311.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.