Thursday, June22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:46PM Thursday June 22, 2017 12:29 PM AKDT (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:56AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221228
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
428 am akdt Thu jun 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
An elongated, dirty, dirty ridge (lots of cloud cover within) of
high pressure sits over the southern mainland this morning. It is
definitely the odd-feature out, with no less than five low
pressure centers flanking it on all sides. The three closest
systems are all weak and dissipating, two over the northern gulf
providing a stream of moisture along the coast, and another is
nearing the bering strait with a weak upper level front along the
coast. The other two are in the northwest and northeast pacific.

Most of these features are aloft with generally high pressure at
the surface. Persistent convection over the canadian yukon will
keep mid-level clouds streaming into the ridge. Weak shower
activity exists in the northeasterly flow between the low high
across the mainland, even in the overnight hours.

Out west, the marine layer is in full pulse-mode, surging inland
overnight before getting mixed out during the daylight hours,
which are plentiful these days. A gale-force front is swinging
over the western central aleutians.

Model discussion
Guidance remains pretty much in lock-step with one another in this
semi-blocked pattern. The major systems, which are well outside of
most of the area of responsibility, are well agreed upon. The main
differences around the mainland are placement of convective
precipitation the next couple days, however, the general theme is
keeping higher terrain as the focus.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The moist northeasterly flow aloft over southcentral alaska
remains again today, but there is generally less dynamic lift
so the areas of showers are less widespread over the region as
compared to yesterday morning.

At the surface, the light south to southwest flow will keep
moisture pumping into the area and areas of stratus packed up
along mountains near the coast and cook inlet.

The copper river basin and northern susitna valley remain unstable
and there remains a chance for a diurnal thunderstorm or two over
the next few days, but nothing very widespread is expected.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Onshore flow this morning with high pressure aloft is bringing a
layer of marine stratus clouds to the western kuskokwim delta and
fog over the bristol bay area. With little in the way of synoptic
forcing, most of the marine layer should burn off and retreat as
solar heating intensifies this afternoon. Once the clouds burn
off, it should be a fairly nice day over southwest alaska before a
shortwave trough moves in tonight. The latest model runs have
been keying in on this feature, which will drop down from the
bering later today and stall over the kuskokwim mountains tonight
through Friday afternoon. Convergence in the lower levels
associated with a weak trough at the surface and low to mid-level
moisture moving in from the east will support rain over the
kuskokwim mountains. Most of the rain should taper off Friday
night as the upper-level forcing weakens and moves out of the

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A ridge of high pressure over the eastern bering will shift east over
the next couple of days. This will allow a gale-force front over
the western bering to move to the central bering and aleutians
through Saturday. As it moves east, gale-force winds along the
front will weaken to small craft winds tonight. Showers associated
with the front will push east as well and linger over the central
bering as the front stalls and dissipates Friday night.

Another front will enter the western aleutians Friday night,
bringing another shot of rain and a swath of gale-force winds to
the southwest bering.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The upper level low moving into the southern gulf will not make it
as far north as previously forecast thus the weak ridge across the
interior will hold. As the upper low moves off to the east, the
upper ridge builds back over western alaska Sunday and Monday. As
this ridges builds it will slide east as a strong upper low pushes
into the central bering sea late Sunday. Monday through Wednesday
we expect the upper low to retrograde back into the northwest
bering sea with a trough extending southeast across the alaska
peninsula into the southwest gulf of alaska.

What this means for the sensible weather is we expect a warm dry
weekend for the southwest mainland while the aleutians and bering
sea will transition from the fog and stratus regime to the more
active cloudy rainy weather beginning Friday night. Cool and
cloudy conditions should extend into the southwest mainland for
the beginning of next week to mid week while the central bering
sea and aleutians remain in the cloudy, wet, and windy weather.

Model agreement has remained consistent through the long term and
the national guidance remained heavily weighted toward the
operational GFS model guidance through the weekend. The ec is a
bit of an outlier as we head to Tuesday and wpc stayed the course,
heavily favoring the GFS for their solution.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 175 176 177 178.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Rd
long term... Sa

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi36 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast52°F46°F83%1027.5 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS745NW3W6SW7W9SW7SW10W11SW9SW8S9S8S9S8S8SW7S4S5S5SE7S5S6
1 day agoW7NW8W11W14W16
2 days agoN12

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Thu -- 02:41 AM AKDT     16.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:59 AM AKDT     2.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM AKDT     14.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:08 PM AKDT     -1.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Thu -- 02:08 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 AM AKDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:55 AM AKDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:28 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:52 PM AKDT     -3.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:03 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:29 PM AKDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.