Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Thursday May 24, 2018 3:31 PM AKDT (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241240
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
440 am akdt Thu may 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
Weather across the state this morning is similar to what has been
observed over the last few days. A stacked bering low currently
north of the central aleutians is slowly moving southeastward. A
strong jet streak remains in place on the south side of this low,
creating a wide swath of zonal flow over the north pacific. The
leading front now extends well into the gulf and a second low is
attempting to form behind it in the southwestern gulf.

A weak shortwave trough over southcentral is generating rain
showers along the coastal areas of the northern gulf. Rain showers
are also spreading in ahead of the trough across southwest alaska.

Sunshine should become more prevalent today across southcentral
as offshore flow increases throughout the day. Additionally,
easterly winds will enhance downsloping along the chugach,
effectively drying out any lingering moisture between the
dissipating shortwave and the incoming front in the gulf.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement with the bering low timing and
position through the next 36 hours. Disagreement begins to arise
as the low moves into the gulf 48 hours from now. Additional model
runs will hopefully resolve timing and placement.

Forecasters preferred the GFS ec solution for the triple point
low forming behind the leading edge of the front in the gulf. The
previous NAM solution positioned this low well off course from
the GFS ec solutions, however this morning, the NAM has caught up
with both the GFS and ec solutions, giving forecasters greater
confidence on the position and timing.

Panc...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the taf
period. Gusty southeast winds will pick back up by this afternoon
as a front approaches the north gulf coast.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Thu and

while the synoptic pattern will not change much for the next
couple of days, there will be hints of summer in the air. First,
the low that had been position over the gulf the past several days
is now only a weak wave stretching out along the northern gulf
coast. It continues to push moisture from east to west, so expect
mostly cloudy skies to start the day from the southern copper
river basin through prince william sound. Showers will continue
along the north gulf coast this morning as the wave continues to
peter out. With easterly flow though, there should be a fair
amount of dry air and clearer skies in the lee of the chugach and
kenai mountains (anchorage through homer).

Then attention will shift to another weakening frontal feature
sliding into the gulf later today. This system will allow the
gradient over much of southern ak to shift to an offshore
direction. This will usher drier air (sunnier skies) across the
area, and should help to suppress shower activity. As this
happens and inland areas can heat up a bit more than coastal
areas, we expect rounds of gusty southeast winds to develop each
afternoon through places like W anchorage, palmer, and the copper
river basin. For kodiak, the front will only serve to reinforce
the wet weather with onshore flow. A weak low will develop just to
the east of the island along the decaying front later tonight.

The low will help focus rain right into the northeast side of the
island and kodiak city.

By late fri, the front from the gulf will begin to stretch out and
weak along the north gulf coast. This will keep rain going along
the coast, especially from cordova over to the southern kenai.

However, aside from a few showers over the mountains, most inland
areas will remain dry. The front will cast a healthy swath of mid
and high clouds across the area, but with increasing solar
radiation, we still expect mild temperatures in the afternoon

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The easterly wave pushing across northern portions of the
kuskokwim valley early this morning, moved in a bit faster than
early model runs had been suggesting. As this wave continues west
today it will continue spreading precipitation along with it and
into northern portions of the kuskokwim delta. Elsewhere the
diurnal pattern of showers forming in the afternoon and evening
will continue. By Friday the thermal trough will return to
southwest alaska and then strengthen on Saturday increasing the
potential for isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough
axis both days.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The vertically stacked low in the southern bering will cross the
the eastern aleutians this evening and then continue off to the
southwest tonight and Friday. Ridging will build in across the
bering from the west behind the low, increasing northerly flow
over the eastern bering and across the alaska peninsula and
eastern aleutians Friday and Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Starting Saturday, an upper level low will move over the southern
portion of the gulf of alaska while a ridge builds over the
western half of the bering sea and into SW alaska. A front
extending out ahead of the associated surface low in the gulf will
spread rain and wind over the panhandle while leaving most of
southcentral dry as a weak upper ridge axis tries to build over
over the central and western portions of the state. This should
set the stage for a decent memorial day weekend over most of
southcentral and SW alaska with a few breaks in the cloud cover
and mostly dry conditions, though diurnally driven rain showers
will likely develop over the higher terrain in the late afternoon
hours. Right now, memorial day looks to the nicest day of the
weekend over most of the southern mainland as the upper ridge axis
moves over southcentral allowing clouds to scatter out a bit
more, though temperatures look to be right around average for this
time of year.

Models show some disagreement regarding how long
this period of somewhat nicer weather will last, with the ec being
the more progressive solution moving the next front into the sw
mainland by Monday afternoon, while the GFS brings the front
across a bit later on Tuesday. Either way, models are consistent
in redeveloping the upper low over the bering by early to mid next
week bringing a continuation of the cooler and wetter pattern
that has been plaguing the region since mid april.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ko
southcentral alaska... Mo
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jer
long term... Kvp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi38 minE 16 G 2610.00 miFair57°F30°F37%1002.1 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE13E17
1 day agoS9S10SW8S8SW12SW9W8NW4NE5CalmCalmE3E6E6E5E5SE5SE8SE8SE9
2 days agoNE11

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Thu -- 12:00 AM AKDT     14.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:22 PM AKDT     17.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:08 PM AKDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Thu -- 02:23 AM AKDT     -2.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:54 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:02 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:13 AM AKDT     3.07 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:29 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:57 PM AKDT     -3.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:52 PM AKDT     2.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.