Monday, May22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 4:48AMSunset 11:04PM Monday May 22, 2017 9:36 AM AKDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:13AMMoonset 4:34PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221242
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
442 am akdt Mon may 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A very dynamic pattern is on deck with broad troughing influencing
much of the region and sustaining two distinct systems. First,
there is a decaying occluded front that has pushed into the kenai
peninsula bringing a precipitation shield from cook inlet to
cordova. Second, there is a mature cyclone impacting the western
aleutians which has strong jet support.

Model discussion
Good model consensus for the ensuing 96 hour forecast period as a
series of storms impact the region. The main event will be a
well-organized storm moves across the aleutians and into
southcentral ak bringing a widespread batch of unsettled weather.

This is a high confidence event. The primary forecast challenge
will most likely prove to be the qpf.

Panc... The remnants of a frontal boundary will bring rain and
reduced ceilings to panc. The primary forecast challenge will be
pin-pointing the timing of the changes in cigs. Winds are
projected to be southerly today.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A brief break from steadier rain today and Tuesday with showers
before rain once again comes back on Wednesday. The previous upper
low is now pushing into the interior. Lingering cold air aloft,
some clearing of clouds/surface heating today, and convergence
around turnagain arm will keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast. A weak trough also slides overhead tonight, so
we won't likely be completely dry, but the widespread rain will be
over. As we lose clouds and wind Tuesday morning, recent low-
level moisture could promote fog development around cook inlet.

I'd like to see a bit more ridging aloft and subsidence, but
moisture and slack flow should be enough for patchy stuff.

Tuesday should be mostly dry, but middle and high clouds will
quickly be rolling in ahead of a pattern change for mid-week. A
strong jet stream will punch in from the west, bringing load of
moisture with it. Expect a return of steady rain and even some
wind on Wednesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The weak frontal system along the coast will continue to shear
apart today as most of the energy from the associated upper level
trough crosses the alaska peninsula and tracks away to east
across the gulf. Showery conditions will continue across southwest
alaska this afternoon through tonight as the remnants of the
trough swing across southwest alaska. The next incoming frontal
system will reach the coast early Tuesday morning followed by
a stronger and rather wet system Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system currently pushing through the western aleutians
will continue east into the central bering today and eastern
bering tonight. A developing wave along the front further to the
south will swing into the central aleutians tonight, continue
east across the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula Tuesday and
then cross bristol bay Tuesday afternoon and evening. The large
vertically stacked parent low will track across the western bering
today and tonight, into the northern bering Tuesday and continue
east to the y-k delta through Wednesday night.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7) An amplifying trough
digging through the bering sea and aleutian chain will continue to
shift eastward Wednesday morning, with a blocking ridge building
over the gulf of alaska slowing the eastward progression of the
trough. This will keep a steady supply of wet and windy conditions
over much of the southern mainland through the end of the week.

Models continue to come into better agreement with bringing this
unseasonably moist airmass (based on forecasted precipitable water
values) to mainland alaska.

One of the biggest struggles in the extended forecast will be the
timing of when high pressure builds back into the gulf and if/when
showers over the southern mainland tapper off. Latest model runs
suggest this wet pattern will begin to dissipate during the
memorial day weekend, as models remain firm on bringing the ridge
of high pressure over the northern gulf. However, there still
remains some uncertainty as these models are showing a chance of
some showers making it over the ridge and into the cook inlet
region Sunday. If this ridge builds into the area stronger than
currently progged, there remains some potential to bring warmer
and drier conditions to southcentral alaska over the weekend and
into Monday. Given the current model discrepancies, forecast
confidence remains low in a completely warm and dry scenario.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 155 172 174.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Ml
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jr
long term... Tp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi43 minSW 39.00 miLight Rain42°F41°F96%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS4W5SW5W6W8
1 day agoCalmCalm5E85NW9N84NE16
2 days agoE3S34SE5S66N7W11NW9NW4N7N8NW4N6NE9E7NE5--NE6N7N5NE5N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Mon -- 01:02 AM AKDT     13.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM AKDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:02 PM AKDT     15.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:00 PM AKDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Mon -- 12:45 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 AM AKDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:42 AM AKDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:34 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:54 PM AKDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:09 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:16 PM AKDT     2.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.