Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:43 AM AKDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230103
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
503 pm akdt Fri mar 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low has moved over the ak-pen today which
sits at the base of a broad long-wave trough in the upper levels.

On the backside of the low, strong northwesterly flow is bringing
down cold air over the western and central aleutians. The jet
stream is highly amplified over the western aleutians with a jet
streak northwesterly oriented just south of adak. A second arm of
the jet is southeasterly aligned over southcentral and the
interior of alaska. This jet is associated with the strong
southeasterly flow over the gulf of alaska which is ushering in
lots of warm, moist air to the gulf and southcentral. At the
surface, a strong gale force front remains parked over the central
aleutians and central bering. In the gulf, onshore flow is
keeping temperatures throughout southcentral mild and spring-like.

With the influx of moisture, which is 200% of the normal
precipitablewater content, stratus rainfall is falling
throughout the northern gulf coastline in areas around middleton
island and prince william sound. The southeasterly winds however
are creating a downsloping effect is keeping areas west of the
chugach mountains dry.

The next storm is approaching the western aleutians this afternoon,
with a front associated with a strong kamchatka low sitting just
offshore of shemya.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement through the weekend with most of the
notable model discrepancies showing up starting on Monday with
the large bering sea storm. While model tracks are very similar,
what is notable is the ECMWF is bottoming the low out at 945 mb
which is 10 to 15 mb lower than the GFS Monday as compared to the
gfs solution. The canadian model is in between these values but
closer the the gfs. This does bring up the potential for the storm
to be stronger as GFS solutions have been favored overall.

Aviation
Panc... Conditions should remainVFR through Saturday afternoon.

It is looking more and more likely that precipitation will
approach the terminal around 00z Sunday. The low level easterly
flow will have weakened significantly by this point in time. Thus,
expect ceilings to fall to at least low endVFR, with some
potential from MVFR.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The front stalled along the northeastern gulf will slowly shift
westward as the associated surface low, located just south of the
alaska peninsula this afternoon, lifts north to bristol bay
overnight. Easterly winds will taper down as this low moves north;
however, there will be gusts on occasion as upper level waves
pass overhead which increases the surface pressure gradient in
response. Another surface low quickly develops over the eastern
gulf Saturday morning and tracks northwest, pushing inland across
western prince william sound Saturday evening. Small craft winds
continue across the northern gulf Saturday, with gusty winds
picking up across the prince william sound to turnagain arm
Saturday afternoon and evening. A maritime boundary along the
coast will provide enough moisture for rain to develop along the
front associated with this next low. The upper level wave pushes
inland Saturday night which supports a few showers across all of
southcentral through late Sunday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Fri and sat)...

a low slowly moving over the akpen is bringing southeast flow and
associated unseasonably warmer temperatures to southwest alaska
today. Scattered showers are possible over the kuskokwim delta,
with the remainder of the region expected to remain dry. Given the
aforementioned flow pattern, gusty winds of up to 50 mph are
possible in the koliganek area. As the low becomes vertically
stacked over bristol bay it will weaken and winds will diminish.

As a result, temperatures will return to more seasonal averages by
Saturday. Some isolated precipitation may linger, however will be
very minimal. Models are indicating a slightly more active
pattern into early next week.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Fri and
sat)...

central to eastern bering...

gales currently occurring across portions of the central
aleutians will continue to diminish through this evening as the
associated low weakens over bristol bay. A small, weak ridge will
track west to east Saturday morning, briefly decreasing winds and
seas further, before an occluded front will move over the region
in its wake. Though winds will increase ahead of the front, they
are expected to remain sub-gale force through the weekend.

Western bering aleutians...

conditions across the western aleutians will be more active. A
~970mb low is currently located south of the kamchatka peninsula.

It's associated frontal system will bring gales to attu and
shemya this evening through Saturday morning. Winds will briefly
diminish Saturday morning, then quickly increase back to high-end
gales by the afternoon as the low moves into the bering. Long
westerly fetch will also cause higher seas to build later in the
evening.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Gulf of alaska... Expect generally benign conditions, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding as high pressure builds overhead.

Bering sea... Confidence is high that a storm force low will track
into the bering sea from the western aleutians Monday. This will
bring heavy seas and widespread gales to the central bering and
aleutians, with a swath of storm force winds southeast of the low.

The low will weaken and shift northward towards eastern siberia
by Tuesday and winds will diminish.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Confidence remains strong that a pattern change to drier weather
will begin over southcentral Monday, as a longwave ridge begins
building over the area. Daytime conditions will trend at least as
warm as observed this week in most areas, though valley locations
will likely see colder nights driven by clear skies. With ample
surface moisture and atmospheric stability, there will also be
potential for morning fog which could decrease the diurnal
temperature range. The main question is when the ridge will
degrade, and model agreement is poor on that decision. Some
solutions show the ridge breaking down as early as midweek, with a
return to wetter weather following. That said, there is
indication that a high will rebuild and return the warm, dry
conditions into next weekend.

Looking farther west, a potent low will track from the western
aleutians to the central bering Monday. With an expected moisture
fetch almost to the tropics, expect heavy precipitation ahead of
the low. As the low shifts northward, the front and associated
precipitation and winds will progress eastward over the aleutians
and bering, then stall over southwest Tuesday. A ridge in place
over southcentral will likely diminish precipitation potential
over the southwest mainland. Showers in cold air advection will
persist behind the front in the bering Tuesday into Wednesday.

Forecast confidence drops substantially Wednesday onward... Based
on model consistency, this forecast package is leaning more
toward quiet weather by midweek. Conditions over the mainland
will depend on the progression of the upper ridge.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 160 172 174 177 178 181.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi50 minNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds37°F30°F79%993.7 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E15
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1 day agoSE3CalmCalmE6E16
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2 days agoN7N9N8N8N8N9NE17
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N10E3E4E8E6NE3N5N4NE6NE4E5CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Kvichak
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Sat -- 02:26 AM AKDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM AKDT     16.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:55 PM AKDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 PM AKDT     16.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.41.20.10.85.912.116.216.515.413.410.98.15.22.710.53.79.814.816.115.213.511.18.4

Tide / Current Tables for Levelock, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Levelock
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Sat -- 04:11 AM AKDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM AKDT     9.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:40 PM AKDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:34 PM AKDT     9.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.22.71.40.4-01.76.39.69.79.18.16.85.33.72.31.10.40.64.58.79.598.16.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.