Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Levelock, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:18AMSunset 6:07PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:29 AM AKST (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Levelock, AK
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location: 58.97, -156.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221421
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
521 am akst Fri feb 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The main feature to note is a ridge that spreads from the bering
sea to the western gulf of alaska. At the mid-levels cold air is
advecting over the mainland around the ridge. With this cold air
advection, northerly offshore flow dominates mainland alaska. To
the west of the ridge, southerly flow is pushing warm, moist air
over the western aleutians. At the surface, an occluded front is
finishing its progression through the gulf and intensifying the
offshore flow through southcentral. The offshore flow is enhancing
gusty conditions through thompson pass, prince william sound and
the western gulf. A nearly stationary surface high pressure ridge
is keeping much of southcentral clear and dry. To the west of the
ridge however, a large swath of clouds can be observed in
satellite imagery over the western aleutians. This region is
associated with the remnants of a strong low that progressed
through the bering yesterday. Gusty conditions persist through
the bering and western aleutians. The next bering storm is
advancing from the north pacific towards the central aleutians
today.

Model discussion
Numerical models are in good agreement through Saturday. At that
point, models begin to diverge as a north pacific low moves
into the southern bering on Saturday morning. At this point, the
american models are moving faster while the ECMWF and canadian
trail behind through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the
models diverge further with a large spread between the solutions.

The american solutions, once again, are producing stronger winds
through Sunday while the ec and canadian, while fairly strong
themselves, are depicting this storm slightly weaker.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist as high
pressure builds through the area. The chance of fog becomes higher
Friday evening. Clear skies through the day, temperature drops
overnight and calming winds will aid in the fog formation.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Sunday)
outflow winds will slowly diminish across the eastern kenai
peninsula and north gulf coast through this afternoon. Although
considerably weaker, high pressure and cold air inland will
sustain outflow winds across the north gulf coast. Stratus and
fog become the main weather challenge tonight through Saturday
night as the upper ridge builds over southcentral. Fog will likely
develop over interior valleys, along cook inlet, and across knik
and turnagain arm during the overnight hours and could persist
into the late morning to early afternoon hours. Otherwise,
generally fair skies and cooler temperatures are expected over the
next couple of days.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Friday
through Saturday night)...

a front associated with a departing low moving over siberia will
continue to bring scattered snow showers to coastal areas along
the kuskokwim delta through the morning. Meanwhile, a ridge
building over the gulf will favorably influence conditions across
the akpen and areas further inland through this evening. This will
allow for generally quiet conditions and mostly clear skies,
though areas of patchy fog are likely for low lying areas across
bristol bay and the lower kuskokwim valley.

A second north pacific low moves into the bering this evening
bringing a large area of moist southerly flow to the eastern
bering. This front will slowly push eastward over southwest for
Saturday morning, bringing precipitation across the area for
Saturday evening. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain across
the akpen while a rain snow mix or wet snow will be possible
along the northern kuskokwim delta coast.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Friday
through Saturday night)...

a departing low continues to influence the bering with a lingering
occluded front oriented north to south over the pribilofs. This
front continues to advect warm southerly flow over the southern
bering. In its wake, a second low forms along a fertile
baroclinic zone in the north pacific. This second gale force low
will move over the western aleutians this afternoon, continuing to
advect warm southerly flow and moisture across the bering. By
Saturday morning, the low moves northward and is centered
northwest of saint paul island. Southerly gales persist,
continuing the stream of warm moist air into the eastern bering.

As the low lifts northward out of the bering Sat evening, its
associated front pushes eastward. Meanwhile, cold air moves in
over the western bering as a weak ridge attempts to build over the
central aleutians. This attempt is quickly stifled by an incoming
storm force low, bound for the western aleutians for Sunday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Once again, the main area of active weather with strong wind will
be over the bering sea Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday begins with
a ridge extending across the eastern bering sea with a large
strong storm crossing the western aleutians. This storm should
pack storm force winds in advance of it with the potential for a
brief period of hurricane force winds possible in the central to
western aleutians as well as the western bering sea offshore
zones. By Monday the low weakens but we should still see some
storm force winds close in to the low over the central bering sea
with gales across much of the eastern bering sea to the southwest
coast. By Tuesday, this storm continues its northward trek as yet
another gale to storm force low crosses the western and central
aleutians.

Meanwhile the gulf of alaska remains under high pressure and we
are not anticipating any significant wind for the gulf region
Sunday through Tuesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
For the extended period, Sunday through Saturday, high pressure
over the gulf of alaska and southern mainland will result in
benign conditions for the southern mainland. The large upper level
high will likely lead to the development of inversions through
southcentral and may result in more foggy conditions. Also, we
are expecting very warm 850 mb (~5000 ft) temperatures over the
southern mainland that could result in some unseasonably warm
temperatures along with large diurnal fluctuations for areas that
aren't trapped under an inversion. The southwest mainland will
see temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
persistent southwesterly flow through the week.

Out west, we have a very active pattern on tap for next week. We
start off with a strong storm to hurricane force low over the
western bering and western aleutians that treks north across the
bering as a ridge over the eastern bering gets pushed east over
the mainland. After this low moves out of the bering, another
strong storm force low is on tap for the western and central
aleutians. By the later half of the week the lows are a bit weaker
as they trek across the aleutians and bering sea. A weak ridge
pokes up across the central aleutians to the eastern bering sea
Friday. Lastly, another storm force low will impact the western
aleutians and western bering sea Saturday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory: 131.

Marine... Gales: 121 127 128 130 131 150 155 165 170 172-177 179
180 181 185 411-414.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rja
southcentral alaska... Rc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk ko
marine long term... Sa kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK26 mi36 minE 410.00 miFair15°F12°F88%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W8NW5NW5NW6W7W12W13W14NW9W9W7W6NW3NW4CalmS3SE3S4SW5CalmSE3E4E4
1 day agoS9S6S9S6S6SE5E6E5E3SE5E4E5E4CalmCalmNW3CalmW6W7W13W14
G21
W16W12W10
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmN4CalmN6N7N5NE6NE5NE7NE4NE6NE5N5NE5E6E8E6E7E7E6SE4S10

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Kvichak
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Fri -- 01:55 AM AKST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 AM AKST     15.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:15 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:05 PM AKST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:12 PM AKST     17.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:34 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.10.63.91014.615.314.312.510.17.44.72.20.5-0.228.214.417.717.41613.710.97.8

Tide / Current Tables for Levelock, Kvichak River, Alaska
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Levelock
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Fri -- 03:40 AM AKST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM AKST     9.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:50 PM AKST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:04 PM AKST     10.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:33 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.41.20.50.74.78.698.57.56.34.93.420.80.1-0.13.1810.510.29.58.36.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.