Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:57 PM Moonrise 1:11 AM   Moonset 5:11 AM

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FXAK68 PAFC 280032 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 432 PM AKDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Currently, the pattern over Southern Alaska is defined by a rapidly building upper-level ridge over the area, with a low pressure system in the Southwestern Gulf of Alaska. The low is weakening and shifting quickly out of the area, as well as it's associated frontal boundary along the northern edge of it, bringing showers into Kodiak Island this afternoon. Influence from this low and front will cease overnight tonight as the ridge grows and shifts more so over Southcentral Alaska. This will encourage a predominantly clear pattern over our area through the remainder of the weekend, and even into middle of the next workweek. While the ridge is still building this weekend, cooler air remains aloft, and along with the clear skies, ample surface heating would be conducive to localized convective showers around Southcentral. However, given the strength of the ridge, any showers produced this way would likely be isolated and short- lived. Additionally, given the surface heating, a return of the Summer seabreeze is expected this weekend, predominantly Sunday, in marine communities such as Seward, Valdez, and Whittier.

One area that may be more favorable for the aforementioned shower activity, would be the Copper River Basin for late this weekend into early next week. This area appears to have a bump up in instability during this time due to a weak upper-level trough riding up along the ridge. Showers produced by this would likely originate over elevated terrain near the Wrangells and further west into the Copper River Basin. There is still some uncertainty how far west these showers may spawn. High-res guidance suggests some showers may develop over the Talkeetnas down to Hatcher Pass.
Given that much of these elevated areas have lost significant portions of snowpack, this provides an elevated source of heating that may kick-start some showers. The likelihood of these showers transitioning to thunderstorms is very low. Vertical motion and lift from these systems would likely not be strong enough to produce such an organized system. By Monday, will also see a general increase in cloudiness across Southcentral as the weak upper level ridge begins to breaks down.

-CL

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure remains over much of the Mainland as evident by clear skies and warm temperatures over much of the area. Over the Bering, multiple shortwaves, troughing and cooler air is leading to some cloud cover and precipitation. A system currently south of the Alaska Peninsula will continue to shift south, leading to clearing or at least drier conditions for the area. The other system of note is a weak low and upper level shortwave south of the western Aleutians this afternoon. This system will continue to graze the Chain as it moves east through Sunday night. Nothing more than light rain and breezy conditions are expected. For interior areas, a few more days of sun and warm temperatures are expected before clouds return.

By Monday, a moderately strong system will move into the western Bering, bringing southerly gales and rain to the western Aleutians Monday. The front will slowly weaken as it moves east Tuesday, bringing more widespread, but light rain to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A broad area of upper level low pressure extends across the Bering through the forecast period. Several closed centers with their associated fronts rotate over or to the South along the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska and weaken slowly. A separate low center travels across the Northern Mainland into the Arctic through Friday, with a trough stretching back to the Bering low. A weak ridge extending over the Mainland from Canada takes over Interior weather through Thursday, then weakens through Saturday as the Bering low slips into Western Alaska. Features overall are best forecast using ensemble means, with fair confidence allowing for some minor variations with the embedded systems moving through.

The weather forecast opens with a Central Aleutian low and front, pushing over the AKPEN, Kodiak Island and across the Gulf by Saturday. Areas of locally heavy rains and some gusty winds spread Eastward across Kodiak Island late Thursday into Friday and across Southcentral Alaska through the week. A second and more potent low and front moving out of Kamchatka enters the Western Aleutians and Bering late Wednesday. Gusty winds and rain expand over the region as the low moves to the Eastern Aleutians and frontal weather spreads over much of the Bering and Western Alaska by Saturday. Considerable cloudiness and rainfall will continue over the entire Aleutian chain for the weekend.

-Kutz

Kvichak
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Sat -- 03:00 AM AKDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:10 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:44 AM AKDT     16.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM AKDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM AKDT     10.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kvichak, Kvichak River, Alaska, Tide feet

Levelock
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Sat -- 03:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:45 AM AKDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:36 AM AKDT     9.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:09 PM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM AKDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Levelock, Kvichak River, Alaska, Tide feet

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