Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 10:48 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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FXAK69 PAFG 160931 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 131 AM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weather will be gradually quieting down across the state as temps remain seasonal over the Interior and a strong storm out west continues to weaken today. A fairly quiet breakup continues, however ice remains thick along the Lower Yukon which will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large upper trough over Siberia and extending into the West Coast with a 983 mb low moving up into the Chukchi Sea. Over the Eastern Interior, there is a 550 dam upper level ridge in place which is bringing the nice and quiet weather to the Interior. South winds behind the departing arctic low will wane today out west.

Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement with the upper air and surface flow for the next few days. The Hi-res models were favored for winds and a blend for precip, with consensus blend models for RH/POPS. We will introduce an isolated thunderstorm threat for Saturday for parts of the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet weather today as a cool front shifts east to near Tanana today, thus increasing cloud cover somewhat from yesterday.
Otherwise, winds are weakening across the Alaska Range with the front shifting east today. Isolated showers in the afternoon will be possible by Friday with more afternoon showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms by Saturday, along with warming temps Fri and Sat.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
South winds continue today but weaken as the low responsible shifts north into the Chukchi. Temps will remain above seasonal norms today with highs getting close to the record of 40 for Utqiagvik. Winds turn back to east northeasterly Saturday with temps falling back to normal, along with increased stratus and possible fog chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The strong storm is weakening and shifting north today. A mix of rain and snow showers continue through today and then taper off tonight. A low will skirt the West Coast on Friday bringing rain and snow showers mainly to Saint Lawrence Island. There will be a scattering of rain showers across mainly the Interior as temps slowly warm. Otherwise, the coast looks predominantly dry and quiet Fri into the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Some form of Interior ridging looks to be in place Sunday with weak troughing over the West Coast. The GFS and ECMWF are much more bullish on this scenario than the outlier Canadian, but should this pattern develop it looks like it will warmup up next week over the Interior with a couple shots for some 70 degree readings. It looks wet and cooler out west as a storm possibly moves in Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Min RH values over the Interior tanked into the teens today. They will remain in the upper teens to low 20s today over the E Interior, but will rise over the Central Interior with more clouds, cooler temps, and a shift in wind. With weakening AK Range gradients fire weather conditions do not look like they will reach critical values, but it will remain dry over the Interior today with only some spotty Interior showers Fri, with a slight chance/isolated thunderstorm chance Sunday for the E Interior.

HYDROLOGY
Rivers north of the Yukon are starting to see some break up, but with warming temperatures through this weekend that could start to change by the weekend. The Yukon River upstream of Pilot Station is partially open with mainly weak and rotting ice left which lessens the chances of ice jams.

There was a report from Emmonak Tuesday evening stating that river levels have been rising. There was still about 8 inches of snow on top of the ice and people are still snow machining across the river with about 3 feet of ice at Nunam Iqua last week. The ice has not moved or broken in any way from Emmonak to Mountain Village. Due to this strong ice in place, this will be an area of ice jam concern in the future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-816-851-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-850-853-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

Goodnews Bay entrance
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Thu -- 05:01 AM AKDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:59 AM AKDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:19 PM AKDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:46 PM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Goodnews Bay entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Carter Spit
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Thu -- 05:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 AM AKDT     9.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:32 AM AKDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM AKDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:19 PM AKDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carter Spit, Alaska, Tide feet

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