Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 10:03 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 6:56 AM

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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 292305 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 305 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday evening through Thursday)...

An upper-level ridge persists over Southcentral this evening with generally clear and dry conditions. There are a couple of exceptions to this. The first is an upper-level shortwave dropping across the northern and western Copper River Basin. This feature is producing some isolated showers, mainly from Glennallen northwest along the Tok Cutoff. The other exception is low stratus underneath the ridge lingering across Prince William Sound. Another, more widespread area of stratus, is lifting north across the Gulf of Alaska.

The ridge will begin to breakdown through Tuesday as the pattern shifts. An upper-level trough will dig south over the AKPen which will allow the upper level flow to turn southerly for Tuesday and southeasterly for Wednesday. The southerly flow will advect more moisture in the form of clouds and showers into Southcentral, with the bulk of the precipitation across Kodiak, along the immediate Southcentral coast, and across the south to southwesterly facing foothills of the interior mountain ranges.
Most inland valley locations should remain dry due to downsloping winds; however an isolated shower, especially Tuesday, is not out of the question. The shift in the pattern will also bring a return of southeasterly gap winds, with the strongest winds likely Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening across Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and near the Copper River.

-TM

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

The main upper level ridge over the Mainland is beginning to break down and move east as multiple shortwave troughs move into the region from the west and north. This ridging will likely lead to more stratus and fog tomorrow morning before influence of the approaching trough becomes the main weather feature. Winds will increase along the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night and encompass most of Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation will mostly be confined to upslope areas along the northern Bristol Bay coastline, but isolated to scattered showers are also expected for other areas.

For the Bering, a gale force front is currently over Shemya and will reach Adak and Atka around midnight. The front will slowly weaken as the low occludes and stalls out west of Shemya. The main forecast change is that the low is now expected to be broader and farther north as it develops along the front and moves into the Eastern Bering Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring light rain and 15 to 30 kt winds to the Eastern Aleutians. On Thursday, another low will take a similar track to the current system, sending it's front east along the Chain through Fri.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A weak ridge wobbles between the Northern Interior and the Arctic Coast and weakens by Monday. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure stretches across the Aleutians and Bering into Mainland Alaska through the forecast period. A series of surface low track over or along the Aleutians and cross the Alaska Peninsula over Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska into next week. Ensemble models demonstrate good confidence through the weekend, but diverge into the new week. A well developed area of gusty winds with gale force gusts push over the Western and Central Aleutians, diminishing late Saturday, but linger along the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN for Sunday. Widespread precipitation accompanies the low, with locally heavy amounts expected for the AKPEN and along the Alaska Range and Eastern Kodiak Island Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall continues along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula over Prince William Sound and along the Southcentral Coast through Sunday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. High confidence for Turnagain Arm winds to bend into Anchorage tomorrow afternoon. There is moderate confidence regarding timing, current consensus is the winds picking up around 4PM (00Z) tomorrow afternoon with wind speeds 12 to 15 knots.

Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

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