Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:15AMSunset 11:45PM Sunday June 17, 2018 8:09 PM AKDT (04:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 17 2018
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue and Tue night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed through Fri..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK
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location: 59.18, -154.08     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180052
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
452 pm akdt Sun jun 17 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The old low in bristol bay remains in place today and continues to
bring moisture into southwest mainland alaska. A strengthening
low is moving along the left-front exit region of the jet stream
which is running due south-to-north in the north pacific and
heading toward kodiak island. This will keep most of southern
mainland alaska in the active weather pattern. High pressure over
most of the bering sea has produced stratus that extends over the
entire bering sea except for the far northern reaches of it.

Model discussion
Models seems to all be locked on to the strong low toward kodiak
island tonight and then merging it with the low near bristol bay
tomorrow. There are some differences in rainfall amounts for the
north gulf coast and that is bringing in a little more
uncertainty to the river forecasts as a result. The other
important question is how much rain will downslope in the strong
southeasterly flow and the GFS is bringing in more rain than the
nam. The GFS solution is reasonable due to the location of the jet
and associated upper level support will likely be enough to
mitigate the downslope.

The model trend of keeping the merged low in bristol bay from
late Monday through Friday, when it finally dissipates,
continues.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southeast winds will become northerly at the surface
this evening bringing in some low level wind shear as winds aloft
remain southeast. Rain will also move into the area late in the
evening and persist into tomorrow. Tomorrow will see the southeast
winds increase again in the morning but the rain is expected to
continue in the winds. The southeast flow should keep ceiling
heights and visibilities above MVFR conditions.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska
The synoptic pattern of an upper level low over the eastern
bering and ridging east of southcentral alaska will continue
into Wednesday. This will result in southerly flow aloft with
various shortwaves moving through. The strongest of which will
move in tonight with associated surface low and front. It will
bring rain to areas throughout southcentral alaska with the
heaviest amounts along the coast. This setup will also bring
strong winds to many channeled areas such as turnagain arm that
will see unseasonably high winds for this time of year, with the
highest winds on Monday. The copper river will also see strong
winds on Monday. Rain intensity will diminish Monday night but
still linger into Wednesday while winds look to diminish through
Tuesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A front remains across the kuskokwim valley and delta as the
surface low currently along the eastern bering is absorbed by a
fast tracking north pacific low that crosses over kodiak island
late tonight. This will bring widespread rain across bristol bay
as it pushes inland early Monday morning spreading north across
the kuskokwim region late morning and afternoon. Gusty
southeasterly flow increases as the boundary moves through
tapering down late Monday with the frontal passage.

The surface low moves into the eastern bering Monday evening and
slowly shifts from nunivak island to the alaska peninsula through
Wednesday afternoon. This will keep southwest in a southerly flow
pattern under the influence of low pressure. Higher precipitation
chances remain in the forecast under this synoptic regime.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Low pressure currently over the eastern bering is quickly replaced
by the next low pressure system moving up from the north pacific.

Increased rain chances are expected with this pattern along with
varying winds as the next low pressure enters the eastern bering
near nunivak island Monday evening, then tracks slowly toward the
alaska peninsula through Wednesday. To the west of this low,
ridging builds across from kamchatka. A typical stable air mass
associated with this synoptic feature traps low level moisture
near the surface which keeps low clouds and areas of fog across
much of the western and central bering and aleutians through mid
week.

The pribilof islands, central bering and eastern aleutians will
be under the influence of the low pressure system initially. Rain
wraps around the surface low on Monday spreading southward from
nunivak island. Precipitation chances were increased for the
aforementioned locations through Tuesday night, then a drier
pattern with clouds and fog become dominant on Wednesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Wednesday evening with a sprawling
upper low over the eastern bering sea. This low will be in a
weakening phase, but with southerly onshore flow, rain and clouds
will remain in place across most of southern alaska. This pattern
will persist through Thursday with a gradual trend toward slightly
warmer and drier weather. However, the remaining moisture will
likely just turn to widespread showers given the strong diurnal
heating this time of year. This trend should continue into the
weekend with a switch toward more seasonable weather... Meaning a
mix of Sun and clouds and showers... But thankfully no cold or
overly wet weather.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 125.

Marine... Gales 119 120 125 351 352.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 41 mi40 min ENE 19 G 24 47°F 1008.5 hPa47°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 88 mi80 min NE 21 G 25 47°F 48°F4 ft1003.8 hPa (-3.9)47°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK60 mi17 minE 1010.00 miLight Rain52°F48°F86%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E10
G17
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G18
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E12E15
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1 day agoE15
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E8E6E10E9E11E10E9E7E11
G19
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G18
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G18
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G25
E10E15
G23
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2 days agoE4CalmS4NW3CalmE5E7E7E11
G17
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G30
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G24
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G32
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G29
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G26
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G27
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G23
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G20
E18
G24
E13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Mon -- 12:45 AM AKDT     1.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM AKDT     15.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:15 PM AKDT     -2.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM AKDT     15.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.83.46.41013.215.315.513.810.66.52.3-1.1-2.7-2.20.44.28.412.214.514.913.611.17.9

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Mon -- 12:39 AM AKDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM AKDT     14.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:09 PM AKDT     -2.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM AKDT     14.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.73.36.29.512.514.414.713.110.16.22.3-0.8-2.1-1.414.58.311.613.814.212.910.57.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.