Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Port Graham, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:08 PM AKDT (04:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:11AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 340 Pm Akdt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Thu and Thu night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Graham, AK
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location: 59.22, -151.73     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240049
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
449 pm akdt Tue may 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A broad upper low complex continues over the northern and central
bering sea. A trough on the eastern spoke of complex extends
across southcentral and is exiting to the north. Cold air driving
south around the backside of the bering complex is digging out the
base of the trough between 160-170e. A strong southwesterly
120-140 kt jet extends from the north pacific, across the central
aleutians, to over bristol bay.

A weakening occluded front brought rain to the southwest alaska.

A surface wave, under the strong southwesterly jet, is forming
along the trailing front boundary extending along the aleutians.

Rain and gusty winds were evident along the frontal boundary.

Cloud breaks were observed over much of southcentral alaska with
drier air on the backside of the retreating upper trough. Though,
higher clouds were starting to encroach from the southwest.

Model discussion
Numerical forecast guidance are in very good agreement with the
timing of synoptic features. Generally will be using a little
gfs NAM in combination with hand edits.

Panc... Gusty southeast winds are expected across the airport
complex beginning late tonight and will continue through Wednesday
evening. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR in rain
beginning Wednesday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Show the present forecast weather pattern to any meteorologist,
and you will be hard pressed to find any that would guess this is
the tail end of may. An upper level ridge over the area currently
is already being shoved to the east to be replaced by a incredibly
cold, deep upper level trough. Upper level troughs exist because
they are characterized by a cold air mass. Whenever an air mass is
rapidly replaced by one that has significantly different
characteristics, there's usually precipitation involved. That will
certainly be the case this time as well.

The key to precipitation amounts in this forecast across
southcentral has largely to do with one specific factor, wind
direction. The winds at all levels of the atmosphere will align
tonight in a southwesterly direction. For much of the state,
especially southcentral, a southwesterly wind is the one direction
where there is no blocking by the mountains for most areas. Thus,
a steady stream of moisture moving northeastward straight up the
cook inlet will develop tonight. It will not take long beyond that
for precipitation to develop area-wide, as the cold air to the
west acts to lift the moisture out ahead of it, causing it to
condense and then fall as precipitation. This precipitation will
start by sunrise Wednesday and continue through most of the day.

For most low-elevation locations, including the anchorage bowl, it
will be rain. However, as progressively colder air moves in,
elevated areas will see a changeover to a rain snow mix, or
perhaps all snow. Accumulations anywhere populated should be light
due to temps staying at or above freezing and the over 18 hours of
daylight working to keep ground temperatures warm. Valley rains
and mountain snows will continue into Wednesday night,
particularly in the northern susitna valley, the kenai mountains,
and points further east along prince william sound.

Shower activity will continue along the mountains Thursday, but
outside of a stray shower most valley locations should dry out
with peeks of sunshine as well. The cold air mass across western
alaska will continue to make its way into southcentral. As the
coldest air will be most effective moving in at higher altitudes,
the developing temperature profile of relatively warm air at low
elevations underneath cooling air at high elevations will make the
atmosphere increasingly unstable, especially by Thursday
afternoon. Plenty of remnant moisture from Wednesday's rainfall,
an increasingly unstable air mass, and another upper level wave
moving towards the area from southwest alaska will combine to
produce a chance of thunderstorms over the western susitna valley
and the alaska range Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile elsewhere tall,
billowing cumulus over many of the area mountains may cause
occasionally heavy precipitation in those areas. The cold air
aloft will also lead to snow levels falling to as low as 1,500
feet Thursday night, so it is very possible that on the upper
hillside and for anyone travelling through southcentral's many
mountain passes will see some snow.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Widespread rains and cooler temperatures will spread throughout
the southwest mainland this evening as a frontal system moves
through the area. Behind this front, very cold air aloft will
provide enough instability to produce thunderstorms to inland
areas during the afternoon evening hours on Wednesday and
Thursday. During the overnight hours cold air will descend far
enough into the low elevations of the kuskokwim valley and delta
to bring light accumulating snowfall to many areas for Thursday
morning, which may also stretch far enough west to bring
accumulating snow into the bethel area. Cloudy skies and cool
temperatures will then remain throughout the area for the
remainder of the work week as an upper level disturbances passes

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Very cold air associated with an upper level trough moving over
the area will bring showers and westerly winds throughout the
area into Thursday. With 850 mb temperatures falling below -6c,
this may even bring a brief round of snow to the pribilof islands
tonight, however temperatures will be much to warm for any
accumulations. Further to the west, a weak wave will skirt the
western-eastern aleutians beginning Wednesday evening, bringing
mostly small craft winds and rain to the area through Thursday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The very cold upper level low over the state will continue to be
the major story into the weekend. Snow levels will gradually rise
but the cold temperatures aloft will keep conditions conducive for
periods of showers over the majority of the region. A cutoff low
will develop from the main upper level low on Sunday and remain
over kodiak island as the main low finally lifts back into the

After this the uncertainty really increases as model spread
dramatically increases for the operational runs. The model
ensembles are indicating the next surface low will scoot just a
little south of the aleutians but that solution is far from

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 150 155 172.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dek
long term... Ez

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 15 mi50 min 44°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 16 mi38 min SSW 11 G 14 44°F 1017.1 hPa44°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 24 mi38 min Calm G 2.9 44°F 1018.3 hPa41°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 27 mi60 min 44°F2 ft
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 31 mi98 min WNW 12 47°F 1016 hPa40°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK15 mi15 minS 610.00 miOvercast49°F35°F59%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10
1 day agoSW43CalmCalmS4S4S6S8S10S8S9S75S8S115S9
2 days agoN44NE4NE4S3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE4N4NE4NE3CalmCalmS3S53

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
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Wed -- 01:11 AM AKDT     15.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM AKDT     -2.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:59 PM AKDT     14.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM AKDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
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Wed -- 12:45 AM AKDT     14.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 AM AKDT     -2.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:38 PM AKDT     11.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:11 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.