Sunday, March26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Port Graham, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday March 26, 2017 10:45 AM AKDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 4:56PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 332 Am Akdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Graham, AK
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location: 59.22, -151.73     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 261147
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
347 am akdt Sun mar 26 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Ridging continues to dominate the bering stretching from the
northern bering through the eastern bering and across the alaska
peninsula. To the east, a trough extends through southcentral
alaska and into the gulf. This trough is bringing showers to
areas around the north gulf coast. In between the two features,
dry northerly flow continues for areas from cook inlet west. These
areas are also seeing mostly clear skies. West of the ridging a
front has stalled over the central and western aleutians and is
bringing rain to the area.

Model discussion
The models are in good agreement through Sunday, but then struggle
with a low approaching the eastern aleutians on Monday. Some stall
it, while others move it to the west, and still others try to
elongate it out. However, by Wednesday there is consensus that
they move it into the gulf. The discrepancies should not result
in large impact differences with the strongest winds happening
before the varying tracks.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The broad upper trough over southcentral and a surface low moving
northwest across the northern gulf will be the key weather makers
through Monday night. Snow showers will continue over the north
gulf coast, eastern kenai peninsula, copper river basin, and
kodiak island. Snow showers may even become mixed over the
northern gulf this afternoon with warming temperatures. The main
surface low center then moves northwest across the northern gulf
Monday. This feature will spread snow and rain showers to the
coasts along with increasing chances of snow making it across the
chugach mountains into the anchorage bowl and matanuska valley.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level ridge over the eastern bering and an upper trough
over interior and southcentral alaska will keep southwest alaska
under cool northerly flow aloft through Monday. At the surface,
locally breezy winds out of the east to northeast will persist
with continued sunny skies. The pattern will begin changing
gradually Monday as the upper level ridge shifts further offshore
and the upper trough in southcentral cuts off to an upper low
over the western gulf and drifts north-northwest over the alaska
and aleutian ranges. Isolated to scattered snow showers will
creep west across the alaska range Monday night and Tuesday.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
While the upper level ridge over the eastern bering will shift
east, it will remain a strong blocking feature over the north and
central bering keeping frontal systems confined to areas from the
aleutians south. Surface lows rotating around a complex upper
level low centered south of the western and central aleutians will
track east to be south of the eastern aleutians tonight and
Monday. The surface lows will weaken and stretch to a trough
extending from south of the eastern aleutians into the western
gulf Monday night and Tuesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Little change to the longer range forecast for most of the region.

By the day three timeframe, guidance is still in agreement that a
surface low will spin into the gulf as an upper level wave rides
south from the interior. Coastal locations will see precipitation,
but the question remains on the anchorage area and how good of a
chance there will be for snow in the area. As each day passes
confidence increases and there is a decent chance that the
anchorage area will see some snowfall into Tuesday.

At this time, confidence remains too low to go any higher than a
chance of snow or to think about totals. The bottom line is that
the pattern is changing. The longwave pattern undergoes a bit of a
shift following this early week system and will set us up to be
in a little bit of a favorable pattern to see systems beyond the
forecast timeframe reaching all of southcentral.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 155 172 174.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jr
long term... Ss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 15 mi46 min 37°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 16 mi46 min N 19 G 22 29°F 1003.5 hPa (+0.0)20°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 24 mi46 min NW 7 G 14 33°F 1003.4 hPa (-0.0)22°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 27 mi38 min 37°F2 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK15 mi53 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F15°F56%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
Last 24hr6N6664N7N65N6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6
1 day agoN865N766N6N6N6N6N9N74CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4
2 days agoN7N96N7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
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Sun -- 01:53 AM AKDT     14.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 AM AKDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:53 PM AKDT     14.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM AKDT     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
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Sun -- 01:28 AM AKDT     12.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM AKDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:29 PM AKDT     13.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 PM AKDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.