Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia Village, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:54AMSunset 6:34PM Thursday October 19, 2017 1:38 PM AKDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 359 Am Akdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia Village, AK
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location: 59.25, -151.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191239
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
439 am akdt Thu oct 19 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Weak high pressure and offshore flow continues to bring generally clear
skies with gap winds to much of southcentral and the gulf coast
as a low in the eastern gulf begins to weaken as it moves inland.

The one exception to this is a weak deformation band that brought
an area of light snow to the southern kenai peninsula overnight,
which should quickly dissipate this morning as the upper trough
axis moves to the east. Further west over the eastern
bering southwest coast a broad area of cold air advection in the
northerly flow is producing rain snow showers as it cold air moves
over the warmer waters of the bering. These are beginning to
diminish however as a gale force low begins to spread into the
western-central bering. This system will continue moving eastward
through the aleutians this week and be the focus for active
weather in the gulf this weekend.

Model discussion
The models remain in very good synoptic agreement through Friday,
with just some minor differences in the low position over the
eastern gulf that should have little impact in forecast
confidence. This agreement quickly begins to break down starting late
Friday as the aleutian low begins to deepen as it moves into the
gulf. Beginning Wednesday evening, model runs are began shifting
this further to the east into the panhandle, however since this
was such a large departure from the previous track the forecast
was left mostly as is tonight until better model consensus is
available.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The high pressure in the interior and low in the eastern gulf are
keeping the northerly winds going today. The lack of extremely
cold air and only moderate pressure gradient for such a pattern is
keeping outflow winds on the modest side. An upper level trough
is over the talkeetna mountains through eastern kenai peninsula
early this morning and it will remain nearly stationary into the
evening and then move eastward into the copper river basin
overnight. This will keep some areas of clouds in the copper river
basin. Periods of light snow through tonight with minor
accumulations will be possible within wrangell- st. Elias national
park including the mccarthy area. There is also an area of clouds
that has set up along the western kenai peninsula coast from
kasilof southward. This is due to the cold advection and gusty
winds coming through the gaps in western cook inlet causing some
convergence right there. Other than that, skies should be mostly
clear over the region today into tomorrow. Clouds will move into
the area in a widespread manner late Friday night or Saturday
morning. The timing of these clouds will have a direct impact on
Friday night temperatures so those are subject to be adjusted as
the timing of the clouds becomes more clear.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A bowling ball low near point barrow continues to drop southward
which continues to advect colder air toward southwest alaska. The
atmosphere remains relatively unstable with the colder air moving
in aloft but the lack of large-scale forcing is limiting the
coverage of snow showers across the region. Other than scattered
snow showers over the next several days, a rather benign weather
pattern is in store for the region with partly cloudy skies
prevailing across the region. The advertised cool down has started
and it still looks like each of the next 3 days should see both
high and low temperatures a degree or two cooler than the previous
day.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The area of low pressure near shemya continues to strengthen this
morning and the satellite signature shows it's now just
approaching the mature phase. This has allowed winds along the
frontal boundary to be just a touch stronger than originally
expected with storm force winds over parts of the far western
bering sea. Now that the low has matured, it will steadily weaken
over the next several days as it moves along the aleutian island
and ultimately into the gulf of alaska Saturday morning. Cold air
advection showers will build across the bering sea today and the
vast majority of the bering sea will see rain snow showers over
the next several days with colder air filtering in aloft.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Friday night through
Wednesday)...

an active pattern is expected through the long range forecast
through the middle of next week. The main challenge surrounds a
storm system which slides east into the gulf this weekend bringing
the potential for snow across southcentral into early next week.

For the start of the weekend, cold air advection keeps
temperatures below normal across the southern mainland into
Saturday morning under dry conditions as low pressure tracks south
of the alaska peninsula to the gulf. Weak disturbances across the
gulf will initiate rain showers along a surface low near the northeast
coast heading into Saturday morning, with a few snow showers moving
inland over the eastern copper river. For locations along the
bering, including the southwest coast, precipitation chances
increase through the upcoming weekend as an upper low pressure
system in the eastern bering slowly propagates south toward
bristol bay. A colder air mass advecting from the northern bering
changes precip type mainly to snow except along the aleutians
where a mix of rain and snow prevail under moderate temperatures.

The biggest challenge of the upcoming forecast is the storm system
which tracks into the gulf on Saturday. This system is currently
expected to lift a frontal boundary to the northern waters by
Saturday afternoon ahead of a surface low. This low moves across
the central gulf Saturday night and deepens to 970 mb. This warm
core system will spread rain across the gulf on Saturday, with
showers along the gulf coast starting initially as snow mixing
with or changing over to rain through Saturday night. The upper
level low associated with this front begins to lift north towards
Sunday morning, which brings the potential for snow to develop
across inland areas of southcentral. Models continue to struggle
from run to run on the timing and track of this system, therefore
only small changes were made to increase precipitation chances
for the latter part of the weekend. With high uncertainty during
the mid range forecast, kept changes minimal through the middle
of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 130 132 170 173-178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dek
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mc
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 20 mi51 min 48°F991.5 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 30 mi39 min NNE 16 G 22 37°F 991.1 hPa (+0.7)23°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 32 mi61 min 48°F3 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK19 mi46 minNNE 11 G 239.00 miLight Snow36°F15°F42%991.8 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N12
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1 day agoCalmN6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7N8
G16
N11
G22
2 days agoN5N4N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
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Picnic Harbor
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Thu -- 02:04 AM AKDT     13.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 AM AKDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:30 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:10 PM AKDT     14.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.112.313.212.510.67.54.11.50.61.74.37.610.813.214.213.711.78.54.71.2-0.6-0.41.64.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM AKDT     15.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 AM AKDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:31 PM AKDT     16.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:39 PM AKDT     -1.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.313.515.315.1139.55.31.80.10.73.16.710.714.11616.114.110.45.91.6-1.1-1.40.33.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.